Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves Preview
The Timberwolves have a chance to close out this first-round series with the Suns on Sunday night, as they currently lead the series 3-0. Game four of this Western Conference first-round matchup is set to tip-off at 9:30 PM ET at Footprint Center in Phoenix. TNT is carrying the game on TV, and the Timberwolves are favored by 2 points. The over/under line is sitting at 210.5 points, and the money line odds are -130 for the Timberwolves and +108 for the Suns.
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Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The last ten head-to-head matchups between then Suns and Timberwolves have gone in favor of the Suns, putting together a record of 6-4. Going back to the last five head-to-head games between the Suns and Timberwolves, the over/under record in these games is 3-2 with a combined average of 211 points per contest.
- The Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS in their last road games and 3-2 straight-up.
- Although Phoenix has a straight up record of 3-2 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 109 points per game in these games.
- Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Suns have a straight up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
- As the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 2-1.
Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
Anthony Edwards had a big game for the Timberwolves in their most recent game, as he put up 36 points on 52.2% shooting. Minnesota’s 126-109 win over the Suns was a big upset, as they came into the game as 5.5-point underdogs. The Timberwolves really took control of the game in the 3rd quarter, outscoring the Suns 36-20. The over/under line for the game was set at 209 points, and the teams easily surpassed that with a combined 235 points.
Bradley Beal had 28 points for the Suns, while Kevin Durant added 25. Phoenix made 11 threes in the game, which was below their average. As for the Timberwolves, they shot 49.4% from the field. Rudy Gobert added 19 points and 14 rebounds for Minnesota.
In their most recent game, the Timberwolves defeated the Suns by a score of 126-109. Minnesota covered the spread as 5.5-point underdogs, and the O/U line was 209 points.
This season, Minnesota has an average scoring differential of +8.7 points per game at home and +5.0 points per game on the road. The team is currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26.
On the road, the Timberwolves are 27-15 this season and have won three straight games against the spread. Today, they are favored by 2 points and have an ATS record of 23-18 on the road.
Minnesota’s O/U record for the season is 44-41, and 79 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 210.5. This year, their games have averaged 219.4 points per game.
For the season, the Timberwolves are 43-41 against the spread and have covered the spread in three straight games. As the favorite, their ATS record is 31-33 and 49-16 straight-up.
Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. They have been a little better on the road, at 114.3 points per game. The Timberwolves are among the league leaders in three-point shooting, at 38%, but are just 21st in pace.
Anthony Edwards has averaged 22.2 points per game over his last five games on a field goal percentage of 46.2%. In these games, he also chipped in 5.4 assists and 6.6 rebounds. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.8 points and 8.3 rebounds for the season, while Naz Reid and Mike Conley are at 13.5 and 11.4 points per game, respectively.
When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the league this season, giving up just 106.3 points per game. They have been even better on the road, allowing just 109.3 points per game.
Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have given up 105.6 points per game. During that stretch, opponents have made 38.6% of their three-point attempts.
Throughout the season, Minnesota has done a great job of defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to make just 35.6% of their attempts from beyond the arc.
In their last game, the Suns lost to the Timberwolves by a score of 126-109. The O/U line for that game was 209 points. This season, Phoenix has an O/U record of 38-46-1.
This season, the average over/under line in Suns games is 230.2 points, which is higher than today’s line of 210.5. On average, their games have seen a combined scoring total of 229 points.
Phoenix is currently on a three-game losing streak and is 6th in the Western Conference with a record of 49-33. In the Pacific Division, they are in 2nd place.
At home, the Suns are 16-25 against the spread, and their average scoring margin is +2.5 points per game. As the underdog, they are 10-13 ATS this season.
Against Western Conference teams, the Suns are 29-23 compared to 20-10 against the East. Today, they are 2-point underdogs and have gone 10-13 ATS as the underdog.
Phoenix comes into the game as the NBA’s 11th-ranked scoring offense, at 116.2 points per game. When playing at home, they are 13th in the league, with an average of 115.7 points per contest. The Suns’ team field goal percentage of 49% is the 5th best mark in the league. They are also 4th in true shooting percentage and have hit 38% of their three-point shots this season, which is the 5th best mark in the NBA.
Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are both averaging 27.1 points per game this season. Durant has hit 41.3% of his threes this season and 36.4% for Booker. Durant is also averaging 6.6 rebounds and 5 assists compared to 4.5 rebounds and 6.9 assists for Booker. Bradley Beal has averaged 22.6 points per game in his last five games, hitting 59.3% of his threes in that stretch.
At 113.3 points per game allowed, the Suns’ defense is ranked 15th in the NBA. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, they are 8th at 46.6%.
Overall, the Suns’ defense has been solid at home, giving up 113.1 points per game (16th). In terms of made threes allowed, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average 50% of the time vs. Phoenix.
One area where the Suns have been strong is inside, ranking 6th in two-point shooting percentage allowed. They are also 6th in blocked shots (6 per game).
Looking at our projections, the Timberwolves are expected to take down the Suns by a score of 114-111.
Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips
- Take the Timberwolves on the moneyline
- The Timberwolves should also cover at -2
- Projecting a combined 225 points, we like the over
Phoenix Suns Injury Report
- Damion Lee – Knee – Out
- Grayson Allen – Ankle – Questionable
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
- Kyle Anderson – Hip – Questionable
