Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Preview
The Bucks and Pacers are set to tip-off at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Pacers currently lead this first-round series 2-1 and are favored by 10 points at home. The over/under line is sitting at 216.5 points, and the money line odds are +335 for the Bucks and -433 for the Pacers. You can catch this game on TNT.
Check out BetCoco for Indiana Pacers – Milwaukee Bucks odds
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Last season, the Bucks and Pacers did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Pacers have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread the Bucks went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 224 points per game.
- Through their last three road contests, the Bucks offense has averaged 104 points per game while allowing an average of 119. Milwaukee posted an overall record of 0-3 while going 1-2 ATS.
- In their last five games at home, the Pacers have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 118 points per game in these contests.
- The last ten games that Milwaukee was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 4-6 straight up.
- Across their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Pacers have an overall record of 2-1 while going 1-2 against the spread.
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction
Indiana picked up a 121-118 win at home over the Bucks in the most recent game of this series. The Pacers jumped out to an early lead, outscoring the Bucks 39-22 in the first quarter. Heading into the game, the Pacers were favored by 6.5 points and failed to cover the spread. The game also surpassed the over/under line of 223 points by 16 points.
The Bucks were led by Khris Middleton’s 42 points, while Lillard added 28. Middleton shot 55.2% from the field and knocked down four threes. Myles Turner led the Pacers with 29 points and nine rebounds. Indiana shot just 26.5% from three-point range.
Today’s game marks the 18th time this season that the Bucks have been the underdog. As the underdog, they have gone 5-12 straight-up and 8-9 against the spread. On average, they have been outscored by 9.4 points per game in these matchups.
In their last game against the Pacers, the Bucks lost by a score of 121-118. Milwaukee was getting 6.5 points in that game, giving them an ATS win. The O/U line for that game was 223 points.
On the season, Milwaukee has an O/U record of 43-42, and the over has hit in their last two games. This year, their games have averaged a combined 235 points, and today’s O/U line is set at 216.5.
Currently, the Bucks are 3rd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 49-33. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 34-18 compared to 15-15 against the West.
On the road, the Bucks are 18-23 for the season, and they have gone 17-24 ATS. Their average scoring differential on the road is -1.3 points per game.
Looking at the Bucks’ offense, they are averaging 119 points per game this season, which is the 4th best mark in the league. Their scoring average on the road is 116.7 points per game, which is 5th best in the NBA. Milwaukee is also near the top of the league in pace, averaging 99.9 possessions per game.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for the Bucks with a calf injury, and Damian Lillard is doubtful for the Blazers with an Achilles injury. Lillard is averaging 24.3 points and 7 assists for the season and 28.2 points in his last four games. Khris Middleton has been playing well of late for the Bucks, averaging 23 points per game on 53.7% shooting in his last five games. Over this stretch, he averaged 7 rebounds and 5.2 assists.
On the season, the Bucks are 21st in the NBA in points allowed per game at 116.2. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Milwaukee is 13th at 47.0%. They have been a solid defensive rebounding team, ranking 3rd in the league in that category.
Over their last five games, the Bucks have given up 115.6 points per game. During that stretch, they have been solid at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 31.5% from beyond the arc.
For the season, Milwaukee has done a good job of not fouling, ranking 10th in personal fouls per game. On the year, opponents have made 12.6 threes per game against the Bucks.
Today’s game will be a rematch of the Pacers’ last game, which they won 121-118. Indiana was favored by 6.5 points in that game, and the O/U line was 223 points.
This season, the Pacers have an O/U record of 45-40, and their last two games have gone over the posted totals. On average, their games have finished with 242.9 points per game, compared to today’s line of 216.5.
Indiana is 27-18 as the favorite this season and has gone 21-24 ATS as the favorite. As the favorite, they have an average scoring margin of +6.5 points per game.
In the Eastern Conference standings, the Pacers are currently in 6th place with a record of 47-35. Within the Central Division, they are in 3rd place with a record of 11-6 against division opponents.
As the favorite, the Pacers have an ATS record of 22-19 at home and 23-19 on the road. Their straight-up home record is 27-15, and they have won six straight games at home.
Indiana comes into the game as the NBA’s top-scoring team, at 123.3 points per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 125.4 points per contest. In terms of efficiency, the Pacers lead the league in two-point field goal percentage, at 58%, and are also first in two-point field goals made. Despite being a below-average three-point shooting team, they are 12th in three-point shooting percentage.
Looking at Pascal Siakam’s last five games, he is averaging 27.4 points per game on 59.2% shooting. In these games, he hit 1.4 threes per game, connecting at a rate of 43.8%. Myles Turner is averaging 23.2 points in his last five games while hitting 41.2% of his threes. He also averaged 8.4 rebounds in that stretch.
When it comes to defense, the Pacers have struggled this season, ranking 27th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 119.9. Their three-point defense has been a strength, however, as they lead the league in three-pointers made allowed per game at just 10.8.
Indiana’s defensive numbers have been worse at home than on the road, as they are giving up 118.7 points per game at home compared to 121.2 on the road.
On the glass, the Pacers rank 28th in the NBA in rebounds per game and defensive rebounds per game.
Indiana has done a good job of not fouling this season as they rank 1st in personal fouls per game.
In their last five games, the Pacers have given up 115.8 points per game.
Overall, opponents have scored more than their season average in 70.7% of games vs. Indiana.
The Pacers enter this game as 10-point favorites and in our projections and we anticipate them winning by a score of 110-108.
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips
- Take the Pacers on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Bucks (+10)
- Projecting a combined 218 points, we like the over
Indiana Pacers Injury Report
- Bennedict Mathurin – Shoulder – Out
Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – Calf – Doubtful
- Khris Middleton – Ankle – Probable
- Damian Lillard – Achilles – Doubtful
- Chris Livingston – Illness – Out
