Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Preview
Tip-off for game seven of this first-round series between the Timberwolves and Nuggets is set for 8:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in Denver. TNT is carrying the game on TV, and the Nuggets are currently favored by 4.5 points. The over/under line is sitting at 196.5 points, and the money line odds are at -199 for the Nuggets and +163 for the Timberwolves. The series is tied at three games apiece, and the winner of this game will advance to the second round to take on the Suns.
Check out BetCoco for Denver Nuggets – Minnesota Timberwolves odds
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Last season, the Timberwolves and Nuggets did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Nuggets have the leg up at 2-1. The Nuggets also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 205 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
- Across their last three road contests, Minnesota has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 103 points per game.
- Across their ten previous home games, Denver has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 109 points per game.
- Through their last three games as the underdog, the Timberwolves have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.
- Going back to their last three games as the favorite, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
It was all Timberwolves in this game as they took a 115-70 win over the Nuggets. The Timberwolves jumped out to a 31-14 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. Going into the game, the Timberwolves were favored by 2 and easily covered the spread. The 185 combined points were 20.5 less than the over/under line of 205.5 points.
Defensively, the Timberwolves held the Nuggets to just 30.2% shooting and 7 made threes. On the other side, the Timberwolves knocked down 15 threes and shot 37.5% from beyond the arc. Anthony Edwards led all scorers with 27 points, and Jaden McDaniels added 21 points.
Minnesota’s overall O/U record this season is 48-44, and today’s line of 196.5 is lower than all of their previous games. On average, their games have finished with 218.5 points.
The Timberwolves are 15-9 ATS as underdogs this season and have gone 26-19 ATS on the road. Overall, their ATS record is 47-44.
Out of their 82 games, Minnesota has been the underdog in 24 of them. As the underdog, they have a scoring differential of +1.1 points per game.
In their last game against the Nuggets, the Timberwolves won by a score of 115-70. Minnesota was favored by 2 points in that game, and the O/U line was 205.5.
Minnesota is currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 compared to 37-15 against the West.
Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. Their scoring average on the road is 113.7 points per game compared to 111.5 points per game at home. The Timberwolves are 25th in pace, averaging 97 possessions per game.
The Timberwolves are among the league leaders in field goal percentage this season, shooting 48% from the field. In terms of three-point shooting, they are 2nd in efficiency, as they have hit 38% of their looks from beyond the arc. Despite their efficiency, they are just 17th in made threes per game.
When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season. On the year, they are allowing just 105.9 points per game, which is tops in the league. That number drops slightly on the road, where they are giving up 108.7 points per contest.
Minnesota has been able to limit opponents’ field goal percentage, as they are allowing just 45.2% shooting on the year. That number includes holding teams to just 35.8% shooting from beyond the arc, which is 4th best in the NBA.
Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have given up just 98.8 points per contest. During that stretch, they have been especially good at defending the two-point shot, as opponents have hit just 50.8% of their attempts inside the arc.
The Nuggets are favored by 4.5 points in today’s game against the Timberwolves. This season, they have been favored in 79 of their 82 games and have a record of 57-22 in those games. As the favorite, they have gone 35-42 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +5.8 points per game.
Denver’s O/U record for the season is 38-53-2, and their games have averaged 222.5 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 196.5 is lower than their season average of 224.2.
In their last game against the Timberwolves, the Nuggets lost by a score of 115-70. They were 2-point underdogs going into the game. The combined scoring in the game was well below the O/U line of 205.5 points.
Overall, Denver is 57-25 this season, which is good for 2nd place in the Western Conference. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 33-19 and 10-6 against division opponents.
For the season, the Nuggets are 43-48 against the spread and 23-23 ATS at home. On average, they have outscored their opponents by 8.5 points per game at home.
Denver is the NBA’s 11th ranked home offense this season, at 116.4 points per game. Overall, they are 17th in scoring at 114.9 points per contest. The Nuggets are near the bottom of the league in pace, averaging just 96.2 possessions per game.
Nikola Jokic is averaging 27.4 points per game over his last five games on a shooting percentage of 55.1%. In these games, he also averaged 10.6 rebounds and 7.8 assists. For the season, Jokic is averaging 26.4 points and 12.4 rebounds. Aaron Gordon has shot 64.8% from the field in his last five games and averaged 18 points.
On the season, the Nuggets are giving up 109.0 points per game (6th). They have been even better at home, ranking 5th at 108.0 points per game. Over their last five games, they have been even stingier, allowing just 103 points per contest (4th).
Denver has done a great job defending the three-point line this season, ranking 2nd in three-point percentage allowed (35.2%). Opponents have made fewer threes than their season average in 79.3% of games against the Nuggets.
Overall, opponents have shot 46.6% from the field (9th) and 53.0% from two-point range (5th) vs. Denver. They have also been able to get to the line, ranking 19th in free throws made allowed per game (21.9).
Even though they are considered 4.5-point underdogs, our projection points to a 113-112 win for the Timberwolves.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips
- We like the Timberwolves on the moneyline (+163)
- The Timberwolves are also our pick on the spread at +4.5
- Projecting a combined 225 points, we like the over
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Jamal Murray – Calf – Questionable
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
- Mike Conley – Calf – Questionable
