Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview
The Mavericks will be looking to close out this first-round series with the Thunder as they head into game six with a 3-2 lead. Game six is being played at the American Airlines Center in Dallas and is set to tip-off at 8:00 PM ET. ABC is carrying the game on TV, and the Mavericks are the 3.5 point favorites. The over/under line is sitting at 208.5 points, and the money line odds are -170 for the Mavericks and +141 for the Thunder.
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Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Over the last three times that the Mavericks have hosted the Thunder, they have gone 2-1. Looking back over the previous three times that the Thunder and Mavericks have faced off, they have combined to average 198 points per game and have an over/under record of 0-3.
- Across their last five road contests, Oklahoma City has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 105 points per game.
- Across their ten previous home games, Dallas has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 106 points per game.
- Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Oklahoma City has an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 1-4 straight up.
- Dallas has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
The Mavericks picked up a 104-92 win over the Thunder in the most recent game of this series. Dallas was a 4.5-point underdog heading into the game, and they easily covered the spread. The 196 combined points fell 17 points short of the over/under line of 213 points.
Luka Doncic had a monster game for the Mavericks, finishing with a triple-double. He had 31 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 30 points. The Thunder made just 10 threes on 25% shooting from beyond the arc.
Today’s game between the Thunder and Mavericks is expected to have an over/under of 208.5 points. This season, Oklahoma City has seen an average of 229.7 points per game, compared to an average O/U line of 230.4.
Looking at their recent games, the Thunder have gone under the O/U line in three straight games. In their last game against the Mavericks, the teams combined for just 196 points, which was well below the O/U line of 213.
Oklahoma City’s ATS record for the season is 52-39, including a mark of 23-22 on the road. As the underdog, they are 13-10 vs. the spread on the road.
In their last game vs. the Mavericks, the Thunder were favored by 4.5 points but lost by a score of 104-92. This loss dropped their overall record to 57-25, which is still good for first place in the Western Conference.
For the season, the Thunder are 11-12 as the underdog and have been the underdog in 23 of their 82 games. Today, they are getting 3.5 points as the underdog.
In non-conference games, the Thunder have gone 21-9 compared to 36-16 against the Western Conference. On the road, they are 27-18 straight up and 23-22 vs. the spread.
Oklahoma City is averaging 120.1 points per game this season, which is the third-best mark in the NBA. Their production on the road is slightly lower, at 115.6 points per contest, which is 6th in the league. The Thunder are 12th in pace this season, averaging 99.7 possessions per game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.4 points per game over his last five games while hitting 49.6% of his shots from the field. He also pulled down 9 rebounds per game in that stretch. Jalen Williams has averaged 16 points, 5.2 assists, and 6 rebounds in his last five games. Luguentz Dort is averaging 10.9 points per game on a three-point shooting percentage of 39.4%.
So far this season, the Thunder have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 9th in points allowed per game at 111.2. They have been especially good at defending inside the arc, ranking 2nd in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 51.8%. However, they have been a bit vulnerable from three-point range, ranking 21st in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.1%.
Over their last five games, the Thunder have been even better on the defensive end, ranking 5th in points allowed at 103.8. During this stretch, they have been particularly strong at defending two-point shots, ranking 3rd in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 49%.
Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 67.1% of games vs. the Thunder. They have also been able to get to the free-throw line at a decent rate, ranking 23rd in free throws made allowed per game at 22.5.
The Mavericks are favored by 3.5 points at home today and have a record of 42-16 as the favorite this season. In their last game, they were also the underdog against the Thunder and won 104-92.
On the season, the Mavericks are 37-21 ATS as the favorite and have an average scoring margin of +6.8 points per game. As the favorite, they have a 24-22 ATS record at home and a 31-16 ATS record on the road.
Dallas’ O/U record for the season is 41-52, and the under has hit in their last three games. Today’s O/U line is set at 208.5, and their games have averaged 230.4 points per game this season.
In the Western Conference standings, the Mavericks are in 5th place with a record of 50-32. Within the Southwest Division, they are in 1st place with a record of 11-5 against division opponents.
So far this season, the Mavericks are 31-21 against Western Conference teams and 19-11 in non-conference play. On average, they have outscored their opponents by 3.7 points per game at home.
Coming into the game, Luka Doncic is probable with a knee/ankle injury. For the season, he is averaging 33.9 points per game. Over his last five, he has averaged 23.8 points, 8.4 assists, and 10.6 rebounds. In these games, he hit 2.8 threes per game.
Dallas is 10th in the league in scoring at home this season, at 117.2 points per game. This is just below their season average of 117.9 points per contest. The Mavericks are 3rd in three-point attempts, at 39.5 attempts per game.
When it comes to defense, the Dallas Mavericks have been middle of the pack this season, ranking 17th in points allowed per game at 114.0. At home, they are giving up 113.6 points per game, which is also 17th in the NBA.
Over their last five games, Dallas has been even better on the defensive end, allowing just 104 points per game, which is 7th in the league during that span. During those five games, opponents have shot just 43.9% from the field and 32.6% from three-point range.
For the season, opponents have made 62.2% of their three-point attempts against the Mavericks, which is slightly higher than their season average. However, opponents have made just 36.5% of their three-point attempts against Dallas, which is 16th in the league.
In spite of being 3.5 point underdogs, we anticipate the Thunder winning this one 116-113.
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Tips
- We like the Thunder on the moneyline (+141)
- The Thunder are also our pick on the spread at +3.5
- Projecting a combined 229 points, we like the over
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
- Maxi Kleber – Shoulder – Out
- Luka Doncic – Knee/Ankle – Probable
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper – Ankle – Out
Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
