New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Preview
At 4:10 PM from Citi Field in New York, we have an NL East matchup between the Braves and Mets. The Braves are sending Max Fried to the mound up against Christian Scott for the Mets. Coming into the game, the Braves have a record of 23-12, while the Mets are just below .500 at 18-19.
As for Saturday’s matchup, the over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and the Braves are the favorite on the money line at -161. This game can be seen on BSSE.
Check out BetCoco for New York Mets – Atlanta Braves odds
New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Braves in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- The Mets, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Braves have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a runline record of 4-6.
- The Mets have a 5-5 record vs. the runline and a 5-5 straight-up record in their last ten games as the underdog.
The most recent game o of this Mets and Braves series came right down to the end, as the Mets rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 4-2 on the road. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -152 on the money line.
Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies each homered for the Braves, while Matt Olson also had a two-run home run. For the Mets, Francisco Lindor hit a home run and drove in two runs.
Charlie Morton pitched well for the Braves in this one, going seven innings and striking out seven without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Raisel Iglesias closed things out. Jose Quintana had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
With an overall record of 23-12, the Braves are 2 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves have won three straight games, and they are 9-4 against other teams in the NL East. Atlanta took the series opener vs. the Mets, and their overall series record is 8-3-1 this year.
At home, the Braves have been really good, going 13-4 this year. So far, they are just above .500 at 10-8 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 23-10 this year, but they have yet to win a game as the underdog (0-2).
When the Braves are favored, they are a good bet to cover the run line, as they are 17-16 on the season. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6, and their run line record as the favorite is 17-16. Their run line win streak when favored is at three games.
Despite the Braves’ over/under record of 12-21, the over/under line for their games has been set at 7.5 only twice this season. The average over/under line for their games is 9, and the combined run average in their games is 8.8. Their under streak is at four games, and their games have gone over the line in only 14 of 33 games.
Left-hander Max Fried gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Mets on the road. Fried has made seven starts this season and has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 4.23. Looking at his overall numbers, Fried has a WHIP of 1.15 and opponents are batting .210 this season. In his last outing, Fried took the loss, giving up four earned runs in seven innings of work. He has allowed a total of four home runs this season. One of Fried’s shutouts came in a complete game. He has three quality starts this year.
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as he is tied for the MLB lead with 12 home runs and also leads the league with 38 RBIs. Ozuna comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak but has gone just 6/24 in his last seven games. Travis d’Arnaud is also a threat in the lineup, batting .267 with five homers.
Overall, the Braves are 5th in scoring at 5 runs per game and have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .256, which is the 4th best mark in the league. Atlanta’s offense has been pretty consistent of late, as Austin Riley is batting .333 over his last seven games, and Ronald Acuna Jr. has gone 9/29 in his last seven games.
The Mets are 18-19 overall this season, and they are 8.0 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. New York is 2-2 in divisional games this year and lost the series opener vs. the Braves. Currently, they are 1-3 as home underdogs this season.
So far, the Mets have been a .500 team on the road, going 9-8, and they are 9-11 at home. As the favorite, the Mets are 10-9 this year, and they are 8-10 as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 6-5-1, and they are 4-6 in their last 10 games overall.
When the Mets win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.2 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -2.8 runs per game. Overall, their average run margin is just 0.1 runs per game, and they are 19-18 against the run line. They have been better on the run line on the road, going 11-6, compared to 8-12 at home.
Today’s O/U line is set at 7.5 runs for the Mets’ game against the Braves. The Mets have had an average combined run total of 8.7 runs in their games this season, and their O/U record is 18-19. When the O/U line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 4-6. Overall, 56.8% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 7.5 runs.
Christian Scott is getting the start for the Mets at home against the Braves. He started the season with a no-decision on the road against the Rays, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up just 1 earned run. Scott struck out 6 in that outing.
Brandon Nimmo has been on a tear for the Mets over his last eight games, hitting .310 with two homers and seven RBIs. For the season, he is batting just .230, but his 25 RBIs are 9th in the league and lead the Mets. Pete Alonso’s nine homers are 4th in the league and tops on the team, but he is batting just .220 for the season.
As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5.5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 11th in home runs and have the league’s 15th batting average.
Our recommended bet for this Braves vs. Mets matchup is to take the Mets on the money line at +134. We actually have the Mets winning this game 6-5. So, you could also look to take the over, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Christian Scott is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which is actually one more than Max Fried. Fried is predicted to finish with four K’s.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- We like the Mets on the moneyline (+134)
- The Mets are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Drew Smith | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| David Peterson | Out | Hip |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Out | Thumb |
| Tylor Megill | Out | Shoulder |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| Pierce Johnson | Out | Elbow |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Sean Murphy | Out | Oblique |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
