Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Preview
At 8:10 PM ET, the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros will face off in an American League matchup. This one is being played at Minute Maid Park in Houston and features a Guardians club that is 19-10 compared to the Astros at 10-19. The over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and the Astros are the favorite on the money line at -172.
Wednesday night’s starting pitching matchup features Triston McKenzie for the Guardians and Justin Verlander for the Astros. Verlander is 4-1 this season, and McKenzie is 2-1.
Check out BetCoco for Houston Astros – Cleveland Guardians odds
Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Guardians in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Astros have gone 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Astros have a record of 5-5 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Guardians have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Houston had a late rally in the last game of this series, scoring two runs in the 9th and another two in the 10th to pick up a 10-9 win over the Guardians. The Astros offense only had three more hits than the Guardians and struck out nine times, but still picked up a win thanks to the late-game heroics.
Heading into the game, the Astros were favored at -174 on the money line. This was a slight overreaction to the starting pitching matchup, as Carlos Carrasco got the start for the Guardians and went just four innings while giving up eight runs and took the loss. Hunter Brown only went 5 1/3 innings for the Astros but gave up just two hits and six earned runs.
Andres Gimenez hit the game’s only home run while going 2/5 with two RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Jose Altuve did a bit of everything for the Astros, going 2/5 with a double, two runs scored, and two RBIs.
Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Cleveland’s Guardians are 19-10 overall and lead the AL Central by two games over the Royals. The Guardians have dropped two straight games, and their record includes going 4-1 against other teams in the AL Central. The Guardians lost the first game of this series vs. the Astros.
So far, the Guardians have been good at home, going 8-4, and they have been even better on the road, putting together an 11-6 record. As the road underdog, the Guardians are 7-4 this year, and they have an overall series record of 7-2.
When the Cleveland Guardians are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 12-5. Their average run margin in those games is 2.1, and they have covered the run line in three straight road games. They have been a better bet as the underdog this season, going 11-2 against the run line in those games.
Today’s over/under line for the Cleveland Guardians’ game against the Houston Astros is set at 8.5 runs. The Guardians have played in 27 games this season, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game. Their over/under record is 16-11, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 4-6. Only 10.3% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs.
Triston McKenzie and the Cleveland Guardians are on the road to take on the Astros. McKenzie has been solid in his first two starts, going 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA. He has 13 strikeouts in 9 innings of work, and he is coming off of a start where he went 5 innings and gave up just 1 run on 3 hits.
Steven Kwan comes into the game on a six-game hitting streak and is batting .350 for the season, which is the best mark on the team. He also has the 3rd most home runs on the team, with three. José Ramirez and Josh Naylor are tied for the team lead in RBIs and have also been good power threats for the Guardians, with Ramirez having five homers and Naylor seven. Ramirez has gone 8/27 in his last seven games, including two homers, while Naylor is just 4/26 in his last seven games.
As a team, the Guardians are 4th in the league in scoring at 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .248 as a team and are 11th in home runs. Currently, they are the 4th hardest team to strike out against in the league.
Houston will be looking to pick up a win today as they are 10-19 overall, 6.5 games behind the Mariners for the AL West lead. The Astros have won three straight games, taking the final two games of their series vs. the Rockies and won the first game of this series vs. the Guardians. So far, they have gone 4-3 in AL West play.
At home, the Astros are just 5-9 this year, and they are only slightly better on the road at 5-10. This season, the Astros have struggled as the favorite, going 8-16, and they are 2-3 as the underdog. So far, their overall series record is 3-5-1.
When the Astros win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of 5.2 runs per game. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.8 runs per game. That has led to a run line record of 10-19, with a run line record of 5-9 at home and 5-10 on the road. As the favorite, they are just 7-17 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 3-2.
The Houston Astros have had a high combined run average of 9.8 runs per game this season, and their games have gone over the over/under line in 9 of their 18 games. The average over/under line in their games has been 10 runs, but their games with an over/under line of 8.5 runs have gone over the line in 2 of the 4 games. Overall, 75.9% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs.
Justin Verlander is getting the start for the Astros today, and he has had a solid start to the season. He picked up a win in his first start against the Nationals, and then went 4 1/3 innings in his last outing vs. the Cubs, finishing with 7 strikeouts.
So far this season, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. This is a little below their season average of 5.1 runs per game at home. As a team, they are batting .265, which is the 3rd best mark in the league, and they are also the best team in the league at avoiding strikeouts. Houston comes into the game with the 5th best on-base percentage and slugging percentage in the league.
Jose Altuve is batting .345 this season and has two homers in his last five games, while Kyle Tucker is also coming off a stretch in which he hit two homers. Tucker’s 20 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and he is also batting .300 for the season. Yordan Alvarez is also tied for the team lead with seven homers but is batting just .263 for the year.
For a straight up pick, we like the Astros to get the win at home. However, with the money line payout being -172, we recommend taking the over at 8.5 runs, as we have this game ending with a score of 6-5 in favor of the Astros.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Justin Verlander is projected to finish with five strikeouts, compared to Triston McKenzie, who we have finishing with six. However, McKenzie is projected to have a lower ERA, as we have Verlander giving up four earned runs compared to McKenzie at six.
Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Guardians (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Arm |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Neck |
| Framber Valdez | Probable | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Chas McCormick | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| Grae Kessinger | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Forearm |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Hentges | Out | Finger |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Eli Morgan | Out | Shoulder |
| Angel Martínez | Out | Hand |
| Gavin Williams | Out | Elbow |
