Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Preview
The Thunder are up 1-0 in this Western Conference first-round series with the Mavericks, and they are favored by five points heading into game two. The over/under line is sitting at 218.5 points, and the Thunder are -200 on the money line compared to the Mavericks at +165. Tip-off for this one is at 9:30 PM ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, and ESPN is carrying the game on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Oklahoma City Thunder – Dallas Mavericks odds
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The Thunder have gone a perfect 3-0 in their last three head to head matchups vs. the Mavericks. Going back to the last five head-to-head games between the Thunder and Mavericks, the over/under record in these games is 3-2 with a combined average of 236 points per contest.
- Across their ten previous road games, Dallas has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 107 points per game.
- When looking at their past five home matchups, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 107 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
- Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Dallas has an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 5-5 straight up.
- As the betting favorite, the Thunder have an ATS mark of just 8-2 in their last ten games. Oklahoma City posted a straight up mark of 10-0 in these matchups.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder had a big 117-95 win over the Mavericks in the most recent game of this series. Gilgeous-Alexander was just one rebound and one assist away from a triple-double, as he finished with 29 points. Chet Holmgren added 19 points for the Thunder. On the other side, Kyrie Irving led the Mavericks with 20 points and also hit three three-pointers.
Oklahoma City was favored by 4.5 points going into the game and easily covered the spread with their 22-point win. The Thunder also held the Mavericks to just 16 points in the 4th quarter. The game fell 6.5 points short of the over/under line of 218.5 points.
The Mavericks have an O/U record of 40-49-0 this season, with an average over/under line of 233.1 points. In their games, the average combined scoring is 231.5 points.
This season, the Mavericks have played in 81 games with higher over/under lines than 218.5. In their last game against the Thunder, the teams combined for 212 points, which was well below the O/U line of 218.5.
Dallas is 16-17 as the underdog this season and is coming into today’s game as 5-point underdogs. As the underdog, they have gone 13-20 straight-up and 16-17 against the spread.
In their last game against the Thunder, the Mavericks lost by a score of 117-95. They also failed to cover the spread, as they were 4.5-point underdogs going into the game.
The Mavericks are currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. Against Western Conference teams, they went 31-21 compared to 19-11 in non-conference games. On the road, they are 27-18.
For the season, the Mavericks are 3rd in the NBA in three-point shooting, connecting on 36% of their looks from downtown. They are also near the top of the league in both three-point attempts and makes this season. Luka Doncic is averaging 4.1 made threes per game this year, but he has struggled with his shot of late. Over his last five games, he has hit just 38.3% of his field goals and 16.3% of his threes.
Dallas is averaging 117.9 points per game this season, which is 8th in the league. Looking at their pace, the Mavericks are 14th in the league, averaging 99.6 possessions per contest. Kyrie Irving has hit 46.2% of his three-point attempts over his last five games and 51.7% of his shots overall in that stretch.
On the season, the Mavericks are giving up 114.6 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. On the road, they are allowing 115.1 points per contest, which is 16th in the league.
Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been playing much better defense, giving up just 103.4 points per game, which is 5th in the NBA over that span.
One area where the Mavericks have struggled this season is three-point defense, as they are allowing opponents to shoot 36.9% from beyond the arc, which is 18th in the NBA.
Today, the Thunder are favored by 5 points against the Mavericks. This season, Oklahoma City has gone 52-14 as the favorite and has won 11 straight games as the favorite. As the favorite, they have an ATS record of 39-27 and have gone 45-41-1 on the O/U.
Oklahoma City’s last 4 games have all resulted in ATS wins, and they have an overall ATS record of 51-36. At home, they are 29-15 ATS compared to 22-21 on the road.
The Thunder have won 10 straight games and finished the regular season with a record of 57-25, which is 1st in the Western Conference. In their last game against the Mavericks, they won by a score of 117-95.
This season, Oklahoma City has an O/U record of 45-41-1, and the under has hit in their last 3 games. On average, their games have finished with 230.8 points, and today’s O/U line is set at 218.5.
In the Western Conference, the Thunder have gone 36-16 against other teams and have a non-conference record of 21-9. In the West, their record is 26-17 on the road and 36-8 at home.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comes into the game averaging 27.6 points per game over his last five games. This has come while hitting 46.6% of his shots from the field. In addition to his scoring, he has averaged 5.8 assists and 6.6 rebounds in these games. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points per game. Jalen Williams has averaged 20.6 points per game over his last five games while hitting 50.6% of his shots from the field.
Overall, the Thunder are averaging 120.1 points per game. This figure has come while playing at the 9th highest pace in the league. Looking at their efficiency, they are 2nd in field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. The Thunder are also the league’s top three-point shooting team but have only attempted the 16th most threes this year.
So far this season, the Thunder have been a top 10 defensive team, allowing just 111.4 points per game (10th). At home, they have been even better, giving up just 109.0 points per game (7th).
Over their last five games, Oklahoma City has been the best defense in the league, allowing just 90.6 points per game. During this stretch, they have been especially good at defending the three-point line, holding opponents to just 28.2% shooting from beyond the arc.
On the season, the Thunder have been one of the best shot-blocking teams in the NBA, ranking 1st in blocked shots per game (6.6). They have also been excellent at forcing turnovers, leading the league in steals per game (8.5).
With a 5-point advantage on the spread, our projections favor the Thunder to secure a 116-115 victory.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Tips
- Take the Thunder on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Mavericks (+5)
- Projecting a combined 231 points, we like the over
Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
- Maxi Kleber – Shoulder – Out
- Luka Doncic – Knee – Probable
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper – Ankle – Out
