Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Preview
Heading into game five of this first-round matchup between the Mavericks and Thunder, the series is all tied up at two games apiece. Tip-off is at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. TNT is carrying the game on TV, and the over/under line is at 213 points. The Thunder are favored by 4.5 points and are -178 on the money line. The Mavericks are +148 on the money line.
Check out BetCoco for Oklahoma City Thunder – Dallas Mavericks odds
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The Mavericks and Thunder did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Mavericks have a record of 2-1. The Mavericks also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 209 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
- The Mavericks are 3-2 ATS in their last road games and 3-2 straight-up.
- Across their ten previous home games, Oklahoma City has an ATS mark of 4-6. Their straight up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 107 points per game.
- Dallas has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
- As the betting favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 4-1 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 4-1.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder in their most recent game, as he scored 34 points, grabbed eight rebounds, and dished out five assists. The Thunder also got a nice game from Chet Holmgren, who had 18 points and nine rebounds. Oklahoma City won the game 100-96, despite heading into the 4th quarter down 69-65. The Thunder also covered the spread in this game, as they were 1.5-point underdogs.
As a team, the Thunder shot 38% from the field and made just seven threes. P.J. Washington led the Mavericks with 21 points, and Luka Doncic had 18 points, 10 assists, and 12 rebounds. The Mavericks made just 12 threes and shot 34.3% from three-point range. The combined total of 196 points was 18.5 points below the over/under line of 214.5.
Dallas has a record of 50-32 this season, which is good for 5th place in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they went 19-11 compared to 31-21 against Western Conference opponents.
On the road, the Mavericks are 28-18 for the season, and they have an average scoring differential of +0.9 points per game. Against the spread, they are 30-16 on the road and 17-17 as the underdog.
In their last game against the Thunder, the Mavericks lost by a score of 100-96. They were favored by 1.5 points going into the game, and the O/U line was 214.5.
For the season, the Mavericks are 14-20 as the underdog and have an ATS record of 17-17 in those games. Today, they are the underdog by 4.5 points and have a record of 14-20 as the underdog.
Dallas has hit the under in their last two games, and their O/U record for the season is 41-51. So far, 89 of their games have had higher O/U lines than 213.
The Mavericks are averaging 117.9 points per game this season, which is 8th in the league. In terms of three-point shooting, the Mavericks are 4th in the league, averaging 14.6 made threes per game. This has come while shooting 36% from beyond the arc, which is 15th in the NBA. Across his last five games, Luka Doncic is averaging 23.2 points per game despite shooting just 37.9% from the field and 25.6% from three.
Dallas’ home scoring average of 117.2 points per game is slightly better than their season average. Overall, they are 11th in field goal percentage and 14th in pace. P.J. Washington is averaging 20.2 points per game over his last five games while hitting 4.6 threes per game.
When looking at the Dallas Mavericks’ season-long numbers, they are right around the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed per game at 114.3 (17th). However, over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 9th in the league at 105.8 points per game allowed.
On the year, opposing teams have shot 47.2% from the field against the Mavericks, which is 16th in the NBA. They have been especially strong inside the arc, ranking 10th in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 53.8%.
One area where Dallas has struggled this season is in the steals department. They are 25th in the league in steals per game at just 6.9. In terms of blocked shots, they are 14th at 5 per game.
In games involving the Thunder this season, the average combined scoring total is 230.1, which is higher than today’s line of 213. This is the 3rd straight game for OKC that has gone under the O/U line.
Oklahoma City has gone 46-43-1 on the over/under this season, with 39 of their games finishing below the projected line. As the favorite, their games have averaged 10.6 points above the spread, while games as the underdog have finished 1.2 points below the spread.
Against the spread, the Thunder have a record of 52-38 for the season. At home, they are 29-16 ATS compared to 23-22 on the road. Today, they are favored by 4.5 points.
Yesterday, the Thunder wrapped up the top spot in the Western Conference with a 100-96 win over the Mavericks. OKC covered the spread as 1.5-point underdogs.
In the Western Conference, the Thunder have a record of 36-16 against other teams in the West and 21-9 vs. the East. Overall, their record is 57-25.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been carrying the Thunder’s offense of late, averaging 30.2 points per game in his last five games. Over this stretch, he shot 46.5% from the field and pulled down 9.8 rebounds per game. Jalen Williams has also been playing well, averaging 18.4 points and 5.4 assists in his last five games.
For the season, the Thunder are 3rd in scoring, at 120.1 points per game. Their scoring average at home is 122.1 points per contest, which is 2nd in the league. Oklahoma City is also 3rd in field goal percentage, at 49%, and 1st in three-point shooting percentage.
When it comes to defense, the Thunder have been one of the best in the league this season, ranking 9th in points allowed per game at 111.2. They have been even better at home, giving up just 109.2 points per contest, which is 7th in the NBA.
One area where opponents have had success against OKC is from beyond the arc. On the year, opposing teams are shooting 36.0% from three, which is 21st in the league. However, over their last five games, the Thunder have done a better job defending the three-point line, holding teams to just 34.8% shooting.
Overall, Oklahoma City has been one of the best shot-blocking teams in the NBA, swatting away 6.6 shots per game, which is 1st in the league. They are also 1st in steals at 8.5 per contest.
With the Thunder being favored by 4.5, our NFL analytics models has this one playing out 115-113 in favor of the Thunder.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Tips
- Take the Thunder on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Mavericks (+4.5)
- Projecting a combined 228 points, we like the over
Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
- Maxi Kleber – Shoulder – Out
- Luka Doncic – Knee/Ankle – Probable
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper – Ankle – Out
