Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Preview
Game six of this Western Conference first-round series is set for 8:30 PM on Thursday night at the Target Center in Minneapolis. The Nuggets currently lead the series 3-2, and a win tonight would send them to the next round. ESPN is carrying the game on TV, and the over/under line is sitting at 203.5 points. The Timberwolves are favored by two points at home and are -132 on the money line. The Nuggets are +110.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Timberwolves – Denver Nuggets odds
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The Nuggets and Timberwolves did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Nuggets have a record of 3-0. The Nuggets also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 212 points per game leading to an over/under record of 3-0.
- Through their last ten road games, Denver has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 7-3 while averaging 113 points per game.
- The Timberwolves are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
- As the betting underdog, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 5-0 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 5-0.
- Spanning across their last three games as the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction
The Nuggets picked up a 112-97 home win over the Timberwolves in the most recent game of this series. Denver covered the spread as 4.5-point favorites and held Minnesota to just 30.8% shooting from three-point range. The Nuggets were especially strong in the 3rd quarter, outscoring the Timberwolves 38-30. The game’s final score of 209 points surpassed the over/under line of 206 by three points.
Nikola Jokic had a huge game for the Nuggets, finishing with 40 points, 13 assists, and seven rebounds. He also shot 68.2% from the field and made two threes. Karl-Anthony Towns led the Timberwolves with 23 points, and Rudy Gobert added 18 points and 11 rebounds. Denver’s defense held the Timberwolves to just eight made threes.
The Nuggets have won three straight games and are currently 57-25 on the season, which is good for 2nd place in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they are 24-6 compared to 33-19 against the West.
As the underdog, Denver has gone 7-6 straight up and 8-5 against the spread. Their ATS record as the underdog is 35-42 this season, and they have covered the spread in five straight games as the underdog.
On the road, the Nuggets are 27-18 this season and have an average scoring differential of +1.4 points per game. Against the spread on the road, they are 20-24.
This will be the 14th time this season that the Nuggets have been the underdog. In their previous games as the underdog, their straight-up record is 7-6, and they have gone 8-5 ATS. The O/U record in those games is 0.3.
In their last game against the Timberwolves, the Nuggets won 112-97 as 4.5-point favorites. The O/U line for that game was 206 points.
This season, the Nuggets have an O/U record of 38-52-2, and the over has hit in their last three games. On average, their games have finished with 222.9 points.
Denver is averaging 114.9 points per game this season, which is 15th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, with an average of 116.4 points per contest. This is compared to 111.4 points per game on the road. The team’s field goal percentage of 49% is the 4th best mark in the league.
Nikola Jokic has averaged 29.4 points per game over his last five games on 53.8% shooting. In these games, he also averaged 10.4 rebounds and 9.2 assists. Aaron Gordon has hit 61.5% of his threes in his last five games and averaged 17.4 points. Jamal Murray is questionable with a calf injury and has averaged 16.8 points in his last five games.
When it comes to defense, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the best units in the NBA this season. They are 6th in the league in points allowed per game at 109.0. This is a trend that has continued on the road, where they have given up 110.0 points per game (6th).
One of the keys to their success has been their ability to defend the three-point line. On the season, they are 2nd in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.1%. This has led to opponents making fewer threes than their season average in 79.3% of games vs. the Nuggets.
Over their last five games, Denver has been even better on defense, ranking 3rd in points allowed at 101.2 per game. They have also been able to limit opponents’ field goal percentage during this stretch, holding them to 48.5% shooting.
Minnesota has lost three straight games ATS, and they are favored by 2 points today. Against the spread at home, they are 20-25 compared to 26-19 on the road.
In games where they have been favored, Minnesota has gone 49-18 this season. As the favorite, they have an average scoring margin of +8.1 PPG. In their last three games as the favorite, they are 1-2 ATS.
Out of their 82 games this season, Minnesota has had an average O/U line of 219.9 points. Today’s line is set at 203.5, and the Timberwolves have gone 48-43 on the over/under.
In Western Conference play, the Timberwolves are 37-15, which is good for 3rd place. Overall, they are also 3rd in the West with a record of 56-26.
In their last game against the Nuggets, Minnesota lost by a score of 112-97. They were 4.5-point underdogs in that game, and the O/U line was 206.
Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. At home, they are 24th in the league, averaging 111.4 points per contest. The Timberwolves are also a below-average team in terms of pace, averaging 97 possessions per game.
Anthony Edwards is averaging 30.2 points per game over his last five games on a field goal percentage of 56.4%. In these games, he also averaged 5.8 assists. For the season, Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.8 points and 8.3 rebounds. Over his last five games, he hit 52.2% of his threes and averaged 2.4 made threes per game.
When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves are the best in the NBA, allowing just 106.3 points per game. They are also 1st in the league in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 50.9%. Overall, they are 3rd in field goal percentage allowed at 45.4%.
Minnesota is also 6th in blocks per game at 6.1 and 8th in steals per game at 7.9. They are also 11th in fewest personal fouls per game.
Over their last five games, the Timberwolves are 7th in points allowed at 104.6 per game. However, they have struggled defending the three-point line in that stretch, ranking 30th in three-point shooting percentage allowed.
Our prediction for this game is that the Timberwolves will come out on top with a projected score of 114-111.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Betting Tips
- Take the Timberwolves on the moneyline
- The Timberwolves should also cover at -2
- Projecting a combined 225 points, we like the over
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
- Mike Conley – Calf – Questionable
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Jamal Murray – Calf – Questionable
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
