Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Preview
Tip-off for game four of this first-round Western Conference matchup between the Nuggets and Timberwolves is at 8:00 PM ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis. As things stand, the Timberwolves are up 2-1 in the series and are favored by 2.5 points. The over/under line is sitting at 204.5 points, and the money line odds are -144 for the Timberwolves and +121 for the Nuggets. TNT is carrying the game on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Timberwolves – Denver Nuggets odds
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head and Key Stats
In the last three head-to-head matchups, the Timberwolves are averaging 100 points per game, compared to the Nuggets at 98. These figures have led to Minnesota posting a record of 2-1.
- Denver has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 116 points per game while allowing 109. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
- In their last three home games, Minnesota has averaged 111 points per game while allowing 98. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
- In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.
- The Timberwolves have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction
Despite being 3.5-point underdogs, the Nuggets picked up a 27-point win over the Timberwolves in the most recent game of this series. The over/under line for the game was 205 points, and the teams combined to score 207. Denver’s defense was strong in the game, as they held the Timberwolves to just 43.7% shooting from the field and 30.3% shooting from three. On the other side, the Nuggets shot 53.8% from the field and made 14 threes.
Heading into the game, the Nuggets had a 28-20 lead after the first quarter and a 93-66 lead going into the 4th. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray each had 24 points for the Nuggets, and Jokic added 14 rebounds and 9 assists. The Timberwolves were led by Anthony Edwards’ 19 points and six rebounds.
Denver has gone 4-0 straight up as the underdog and 7-5 against the spread as the underdog. Their O/U record as the underdog is 7-5, with an average scoring differential of -0.3 points per game.
This season, the Nuggets have been the underdog in 12 of their 82 games. In those games, their record is 6-6, and they are 41-47 ATS overall on the road.
Their average scoring differential on the road is +1.2 points per game, and they are 26-18 straight up. In the Western Conference, they are 2nd with a record of 33-19.
Denver’s O/U record for the season is 36-52-2, and their games have averaged 223.1 points per game. Today’s line of 204.5 is lower than all of their previous games.
In their last game against the Timberwolves, the Nuggets won 117-90 as 3.5-point underdogs. The game went over the O/U line of 205 points.
Denver is averaging 114.9 points per game this season, which is 15th in the NBA. At home, they have been a little better, at 116.5 points per game. Their scoring average on the road is 111.3. Overall, they have outscored the league average in 50% of their games. Looking at their field goal percentage, the Nuggets are 4th in the league, at 49%. Their two-point field goal percentage of 56% is 7th best in the NBA.
Nikola Jokic has been playing well of late, averaging 26 points, 14.4 rebounds and 9.8 assists in his last five games. This has come while hitting 49.5% of his shots from the field. Michael Porter Jr. has also been playing well of late, averaging 20.6 points per game on a field goal percentage of 50.7%. In these games, he hit 3.6 threes per game. Jamal Murray is averaging 20.6 points per game in his last five games but has a field goal percentage of 40.4%.
When it comes to defense, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the best in the league all season long. They are currently 6th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 109.1. On the road, they have been just as good, giving up 110.1 points per contest, which is also 6th in the league.
One of the reasons the Nuggets have been so good on defense is their ability to contest three-point shots. On the season, they are 2nd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed, at just 35.1%. Opponents have also made fewer threes than their season average in 76.8% of games vs. Denver.
Over their last five games, the Nuggets have been slightly worse on defense, giving up 105.4 points per game. During that stretch, they have been a little worse at defending two-point shots, allowing opponents to shoot 58% from inside the arc.
In terms of their over/under record for the season, Minnesota is 46-43. Their games have averaged a combined 218.9 points per game, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 204.5. On average, their games have had an O/U line of 220.2.
Minnesota’s ATS record for the season is 46-42, and they have gone 20-24 ATS at home. As the favorite, their ATS record is 31-34, and they have been favored in 66 of their 82 games.
The Timberwolves’ last game was also against the Nuggets, and they lost by a score of 117-90. The O/U line for that game was 205 points, and Minnesota was favored by 3.5 points going into the game.
Looking at the Western Conference standings, the Timberwolves are in 3rd place with a record of 56-26. In games against Western Conference opponents, they are 37-15 and 12-4 against teams in the Northwest Division.
On the road, Minnesota has an ATS record of 26-18, and they are 30-15 straight-up. At home, they are 32-12 and have an average scoring differential of +7.9 points per game. As the favorite, their scoring differential is +8.4 PPG.
Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring offense, averaging 113 points per game. They have been a little worse than that at home, with an average of 111.5 points per contest. Looking at their three-point shooting, the Timberwolves are the league’s 3rd best team, hitting 38% of their shots from downtown.
Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 33 points per game over his last five games. This has come while hitting 57% of his shots from the field. Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 64% of his threes in his last five games and is averaging 21.8 points per game for the season.
When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 106.1 points per game. They have been even better at home, giving up just 103.6 points per game. In their last five games, they have also been playing well, ranking 6th in the league at 104.2 points per game.
One area where the Timberwolves have been particularly strong is in their ability to defend the three-point line. On the season, they are allowing opponents to shoot just 35.8% from beyond the arc, which is 4th in the NBA. Overall, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average in 76.8% of games vs. Minnesota.
When it comes to field goal percentage, the Timberwolves are also the top-ranked defense in the league, holding opponents to just 45.1% shooting. Inside the arc, they have been just as good, ranking 1st in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 50.7%.
Coming in as 2.5 point favorites, our projections have the Timberwolves picking up a 113-112 win.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Betting Tips
- Take the Timberwolves on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Nuggets (+2.5)
- Projecting a combined 225 points, we like the over
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Abdomen – Questionable
- Reggie Jackson – Calf – Questionable
- Jamal Murray – Calf – Questionable
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
