Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Preview
Minnesota heads into game three of this Western Conference first-round series with a 2-0 lead over the Nuggets. Tip-off for game three is set for 9:30 PM ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis. ESPN is carrying the game on TV, and the Timberwolves are favored by 4.5 points. The over/under line is sitting at 204.5 points, and the money line odds are -192 for the Timberwolves and +158 for the Nuggets.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The last five times that the Timberwolves have hosted the Nuggets, they have an above .500 record at 3-2. Looking back over the previous three times that the Nuggets and Timberwolves have faced off, they have combined to average 204 points per game and have an over/under record of 1-2.
- Denver has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 115 points per game while allowing 111. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
- Across their last five home contests, Minnesota has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 113 points per game.
- Through their last five games as the underdog, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 3-2.
- Minnesota has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction
Minnesota picked up a big win in the most recent game of this Timberwolves vs. Nuggets series, winning 106-80. The Timberwolves covered the spread as 7-point underdogs and held the Nuggets to just 30% shooting from three. Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns each had 27 points for Minnesota, and Edwards shot 64.7% from the field.
Denver’s 80 points were well below their season average, and the 80 points were 23.5 points below the over/under line of 209.5 points. The Nuggets were led by Aaron Gordon’s 20 points, and Nikola Jokic added 16 points and 16 rebounds.
As the Nuggets look to snap a two-game losing streak, they will be hoping to improve their ATS record, which is currently 40-47. On the road, they are 18-24 ATS and have an average scoring margin of +0.6 points per game.
Denver has been the underdog in 11 of their 82 games this season and has gone 5-6 straight-up in those games. Against the spread as the underdog, they are 6-5 and have covered the spread in their last three games as the underdog.
In their most recent game against the Timberwolves, the Nuggets lost 106-80. They were favored by 7 points in that game and are 34-42 ATS as the favorite this season.
This season, Denver has an O/U record of 35-52-2, with the under hitting in their last three games. Today’s O/U line of 204.5 is lower than all of their previous games this season, which have averaged 225 points.
Denver is currently 2nd in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 33-19 and 24-6 in non-conference games.
Denver’s offense is averaging 114.9 points per game this season, which is 15th in the league. At home, they are at 116.5 points per game compared to 111.1 on the road. The team’s field goal percentage of 49% is the 5th best mark in the league. Despite being near the bottom of the league in three-pointers made, the Nuggets have taken the 2nd most two-point field goal attempts and have hit 56% of their shots inside the arc.
Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9 assists this season. Over his last five games, he has averaged 26 points, 14.6 rebounds and 9.8 assists. Michael Porter Jr. has hit 42.1% of his threes in his last five games and is averaging 20.4 points per game in that stretch. Jamal Murray is averaging 20.2 points and 5.4 assists in his last five games but has hit just 37.5% of his shots in that stretch.
On the season, the Nuggets have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 6th in points allowed per game at 109.3. They have been equally as good on the road, giving up just 110.5 points per contest.
Denver has done a great job of defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.2% from beyond the arc, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. In terms of three-point attempts allowed per game, they are also 2nd in the NBA at 31.4.
Over their last five games, the Nuggets have been even better at defending the three-point line, allowing just 31.6% shooting from deep.
Minnesota’s ATS win streak is at six games, and they are 46-41 ATS for the season. At home, they are 20-23 ATS and have covered the spread in two straight games.
As the favorite, the Timberwolves are 31-33 ATS this season and have gone 49-16 straight-up. They have been favored in 65 of their 82 games and have won their last two games as the favorite.
In Western Conference play, the Timberwolves are 37-15 and are currently in 3rd place. Against the West, they are 19-11 compared to 12-4 against their division.
Minnesota’s O/U record for the season is 45-43, and their games have averaged 219 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 204.5 is lower than their season average of 220.4.
In their last game against the Nuggets, the Timberwolves won 106-80 as 7-point underdogs. The combined scoring in that game was 186, and the O/U line was 209.5.
Minnesota is the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring offense this season, at 113 points per game. Their production has been slightly worse at home, as they have averaged 112 points per contest on their home floor. The Timberwolves are in the bottom half of the league in pace, averaging 97 possessions per game.
Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 32.2 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he shot 53.8% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. Karl-Anthony Towns has averaged 21 points and 9.4 rebounds in his last five games while hitting 54.2% of his threes.
When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 106.0 points per game. At home, they have been even better, giving up just 103.3 points per contest.
Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have been even stingier, allowing just 99.4 points per game. During this stretch, opponents have made just 37.2% of their three-point attempts.
Overall, opposing teams have made just 35.6% of their three-point attempts vs. Minnesota this season. In terms of made free throws allowed, the Timberwolves are 21st in the NBA at 22.1 per game.
In spite of being 4.5 point underdogs, we anticipate the Nuggets winning this one 112-111.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Betting Tips
- We like the Nuggets on the moneyline (+158)
- The Nuggets are also our pick on the spread at +4.5
- Projecting a combined 223 points, we like the over
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Abdomen – Questionable
- Reggie Jackson – Calf – Questionable
- Jamal Murray – Calf – Questionable
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
