Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Preview
With a 3-1 series lead, the 5th-seeded Mavericks have a chance to close out the 3rd-seeded Timberwolves in game five of this Western Conference Finals matchup. Tip-off is set for 8:30 PM ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis. The over/under line is currently at 209.5 points, and the Timberwolves are favored by -4.5.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Timberwolves – Dallas Mavericks odds
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The last three times that the Mavericks have faced off vs. the Timberwolves as the underdog, they have gone 2-1. Across the last three head to head matchups between the Mavericks and Timberwolves, the teams have averaged 214 points per game with an over/under record of 2-1. The last three times they have faced off with the Timberwolves as the home team, the OU record is 1-2.
- In their last three road games, Dallas has averaged 107 points per game while allowing 101. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
- Across their last three home contests, Minnesota has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 103 points per game.
- Dallas has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
- As the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Minnesota posted a straight up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
Minnesota pulled off a 105-100 win over the Mavericks in the most recent game of this series. The Timberwolves were 1.5-point underdogs heading into the game and easily covered the spread. The 205 combined points fell 6.5 points short of the over/under line of 211.5 points.
Anthony Edwards had a big game for the Timberwolves with 29 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists. Karl-Anthony Towns also had 25 points and 5 rebounds while knocking down 4 threes. Luka Doncic had a triple-double for the Mavericks with 28 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists.
Dallas has an O/U record of 45-53-0 this season, with an average scoring line of 229.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 209.5 is lower than 91 of their previous games.
The Mavericks have gone 20-17 ATS as the underdog this season, and they have covered the spread in their last four games as the underdog. As the road team, their ATS record is 33-16, and they have an average scoring differential of +1.1 points per game on the road.
In their most recent game against the Timberwolves, the Mavericks lost 105-100. They were favored by 1.5 points going into the game. The teams combined for 205 points, which was below the O/U line of 211.5.
On the season, Dallas is 17-20 as the underdog and 38-23 vs. the spread as the underdog. As the underdog, they have an average scoring differential of -4.7 points per game.
Dallas is currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 and 19-11 in non-conference games.
Looking at Luka Doncic’s last five games, he is averaging 31 points per game on 45.7% shooting. In these games, he hit 4.2 threes per game. For the season, he is averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds. Kyrie Irving has hit 41.1% of his threes this season and is averaging 3 made threes per game. Over his last five, he is averaging 24.2 points per game on 46% shooting.
Dallas is 4th in the NBA in both three-point attempts and makes this season. Overall, they have hit 36% of their looks from beyond the arc. The team’s scoring average for the season is 117.9 points per game, which is 9th in the league. Despite being above average in pace this season, they have scored below the league average in 57.3% of their games.
On the season, the Mavericks are 17th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 113.7. Over their last five games, Dallas is 10th in the league, giving up just 108.2 points per contest.
One area where the Mavericks have been effective defensively is inside the arc. Dallas is 10th in the NBA in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 53.9%.
One area where the Mavericks have struggled defensively this season is steals, as they are 25th in the NBA at 6.9 per game. In terms of blocked shots, Dallas is 13th in the league at 5 per contest.
In games where Minnesota has been favored this season, the average scoring margin is +8.4 points per game. As the favorite, they have a record of 50-20 and are favored by 4.5 points today. Their ATS record as the favorite is 32-37.
Against the spread at home, the Timberwolves are 21-27 this season and have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. Overall, their ATS record at home is 21-27 and 28-20 on the road.
Minnesota’s O/U record for the season is 51-46, and their games have averaged 218 points per game. Today’s O/U line is 209.5, with their games averaging 219.1 points per game.
Minnesota’s last game was also against the Mavericks, and they won the game by a score of 105-100. In that game, the Timberwolves were 1.5-point underdogs and covered the spread. The game finished with a combined scoring total of 205 points, going under the O/U line of 211.5.
The Timberwolves are currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. Against Western Conference teams, they are 37-15 and 12-4 against other teams in the Northwest Division.
Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 21st-ranked scoring team, at 113 points per game. Their home scoring average is just 111.3 points per contest, which is 24th in the league. Despite being near the bottom of the league in pace, the Timberwolves are 9th in field goal percentage and 3rd in three-point shooting percentage.
Anthony Edwards is averaging 22.2 points per game over his last five games, while also averaging 8 assists and 8.6 rebounds. Jaden McDaniels has hit 57.4% of his shots in his last five games and averaged 14.8 points per game in that stretch. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 18.6 points per game in his last five games but has hit just 39.5% of his shots from the field. For the season, Edwards is averaging 25.9 points per game, and Towns is at 21.8 points per game.
When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the league this season, allowing just 105.8 points per game. They have been even better at home, giving up just 103.3 points per contest. In fact, opponents have scored less than their season average in 87.8% of games vs. Minnesota.
One area where the Timberwolves have excelled is in their ability to protect the paint. They are first in the league in two-point shooting percentage allowed at just 51.0%. Overall, they are second in field goal percentage allowed at 45.3%.
Over their last five games, Minnesota’s defense has been solid, giving up 104.6 points per game. During that stretch, opponents have made just 34.4% of their three-point attempts.
With a 4.5-point advantage on the spread, our projections favor the Timberwolves to secure a 107-106 victory.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Tips
- Take the Timberwolves on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Mavericks (+4.5)
- Projecting a combined 213 points, we like the over
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
- Mike Conley – Soleus – Questionable
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
- Luka Doncic – Knee/Ankle – Questionable
- Dereck Lively II – Neck – Questionable
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper – Ankle – Out
