Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers Preview
The Pacers have a chance to close out this first-round series with a win tonight. They currently lead the Bucks 3-1 in this Eastern Conference first-round matchup. Game five is set for 9:30 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. TNT is carrying the game on TV, and the Pacers are favored by 4 points. The over/under line is at 214.5 points, and Indiana is -179 on the money line. The Bucks are at +148 on the money line.
Check out BetCoco for Milwaukee Bucks – Indiana Pacers odds
Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The last five times, the Pacers have faced off against the Bucks on the road, they are above .500 at 3-2. Not only have the Pacers gone 2-1 against the spread in their last three games vs. the Bucks, they are also 2-1 ATS the last three times they have faced the Bucks on the road.
- Through their last three road games, Indiana has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 1-2 while averaging 113 points per game.
- Through their last ten home contests, the Bucks offense has averaged 109 points per game while allowing an average of 119. Milwaukee posted an overall record of 2-8 while going 4-6 ATS.
- Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Bucks have a straight up record of 3-7. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
- Indiana has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers Prediction
The Pacers picked up a 126-113 win over the Bucks in the most recent game of this series. Indiana was favored by 10 points heading into the game, and they easily covered the spread. Going into the game, the over/under line was set at 214.5 points, and the teams combined to score 24.5 more points than that. The Pacers took control of the game in the third quarter, outscoring the Bucks 31-21.
Indiana’s offense was excellent in the win, as they shot 51.7% from the field and knocked down 22 threes. Myles Turner hit seven threes and finished with 29 points. Tyrese Haliburton was the second-leading scorer for the Pacers with 24 points. Brook Lopez led the Bucks with 27 points, and Khris Middleton added 25 points.
The Pacers have an overall record of 47-35 this season, which has them in 6th place in the Eastern Conference. In the Central Division, they are currently in 3rd place.
When playing on the road, the Pacers are 22-21 this season. Their straight-up record as the favorite is 28-18, and they are favored by 4 points today. Against the spread on the road, they are 23-19.
Indiana’s last game was also against the Bucks, and they won by a score of 126-113. This improved their ATS record to 46-38 for the season, and they covered the spread by 13 points.
This season, the Pacers have gone 46-40 on the over/under, and their games have averaged 242.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line is 214.5, and their last three games have gone over the posted total.
Offensively, the Pacers have been the best team in the league this season, averaging 123.3 points per game. They have been even better than that on the road, at 120.5 points per contest. One of the reasons for their success is that they are the NBA’s top shooting team, hitting 50% of their shots from the field.
Pascal Siakam has been playing well for the Pacers of late, averaging 26.2 points per game in his last five games. Over this stretch, he shot 58.8% from the field. Myles Turner has averaged 25.6 points per game in his last five games while hitting 52.6% of his threes. Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with a back injury, but for the season, he is averaging 10.9 assists and 20.1 points.
Heading into their matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, the Indiana Pacers are giving up an average of 119.9 points per game, which is 27th in the NBA. On the road, they are allowing 121.2 points per contest, which is 28th in the league.
Over their last five games, the Pacers’ defense has been slightly better, giving up 112.6 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA.
On the season, opponents have scored more than their season average 70.7% of the time vs. the Pacers. Indiana has done a good job of defending the three-point line, as opponents have made fewer threes than their season average 81.7% of the time.
Indiana’s defense has been solid in terms of blocks, ranking 8th in the NBA. However, they have struggled to keep opponents off the free-throw line, giving up 25.6 made free throws per game, which is 30th in the league.
The Bucks have gone 44-42 on the over/under this season and have seen the over hit in each of their last three games. Today’s O/U line is set at 214.5, which is lower than their season average of 233.8.
In their last game against the Pacers, the teams combined for 239 points, easily surpassing the O/U line of 214.5. Milwaukee lost the game by a score of 126-113.
For the season, the Bucks have an average scoring differential of +6.0 points per game at home. Their ATS record at home is 20-24, while going 17-25 on the road. As underdogs, they are 8-10 vs. the spread.
Overall, Milwaukee is 49-33 this season, which is good for 3rd place in the Eastern Conference. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 34-18 and 10-7 in their division.
For the season, the Bucks are the 4th best scoring team in the league, at 119 points per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 120.6 points per contest. Milwaukee’s pace is also above average, at 99.9 possessions per game. One of the reasons for their success is their three-point shooting, as they are 5th in both attempts and makes. Overall, they have hit 37% of their threes, which is 7th in the league.
Khris Middleton is averaging 24.4 points per game over his last five games on 48.9% shooting. In these games, he also averaged 7.6 rebounds and 5 assists. Brook Lopez is averaging 17 points per game in his last five games, while hitting 2.2 threes per game in that stretch. Bobby Portis is averaging 13.8 points and 7.4 rebounds for the Bucks this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful with a calf injury, and Damian Lillard is doubtful with an Achilles injury.
So far this season, the Bucks are giving up 116.4 points per game, which is 21st in the NBA. At home, they are allowing 114.6 points per game.
Over their last five games, Milwaukee’s defense has been a little worse than their season average, giving up 115.8 points per game.
One area where the Bucks have struggled this season is in steals, where they are 28th in the league. However, they have been good at protecting the rim, ranking 17th in blocked shots.
When it comes to three-point defense, Milwaukee is 13th in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed at 35.5%. Opponents are also making 12.7 threes per game against the Bucks.
So far this season, opponents have scored more than their season average in 65.9% of games vs. Milwaukee.
In spite of being 4 point underdogs, we anticipate the Bucks winning this one 111-110.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers Betting Tips
- We like the Bucks on the moneyline (+148)
- The Bucks are also our pick on the spread at +4
- Projecting a combined 221 points, we like the over
Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – Calf – Doubtful
- Khris Middleton – Ankle – Probable
- Patrick Beverley – Oblique – Probable
- Damian Lillard – Achilles – Doubtful
Indiana Pacers Injury Report
- Tyrese Haliburton – Back – Questionable
- Bennedict Mathurin – Shoulder – Out
