Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Preview
The Celtics and Heat will face off in game four of their first-round series at 7:30 PM ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami. The Celtics currently lead the series 2-1 and are the 1-seed in the East. The over/under line for Monday’s matchup is sitting at 203.5 points, and the Celtics are favored by 10.5 points. The money line odds are -517 for the Celtics and +389 for the Heat. TNT is carrying the game on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Miami Heat – Boston Celtics odds
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The Celtics and Heat did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Celtics have a record of 2-1. The Celtics also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 202 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
- Although Boston has a straight up record of 7-3 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 6-4. The team averaged 116 points per game in these games.
- When looking at their past five home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 108 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
- Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Heat have a straight up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-2.
- As the betting favorite, the Celtics have an ATS record of 3-1-1 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 4-1.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction
The Celtics picked up a 104-84 win over the Heat in the most recent game of this series. They easily covered the spread as 9.5-point favorites and held Miami to just 32.1% shooting from three-point range. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum both had 22 points for the Celtics, as they each hit two threes. Bam Adebayo had 20 points to lead the Heat.
Boston got off to a fast start in this one, outscoring the Heat 21-12 in the first quarter. The Celtics also had a big second quarter, outscoring Miami 42-27. The game finished 17 points below the over/under line of 205 points.
The Celtics have been the favorite in 81 of their 82 games this season and are favored by 10.5 points today. As the favorite, they have gone 64-17 straight up and 41-36 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +12 points per game.
In their last game against the Heat, the Celtics won 104-84 as 9.5-point favorites. The combined scoring in that game was 188 points, which was well below the O/U line of 205.5.
This season, the Celtics have an O/U record of 44-40-1, with an average over/under line of 228.4 points. In their games, the average combined scoring is 228.8 points.
Boston’s ATS record for the season is 43-38, going 20-20 against the spread on the road and 23-18 at home. The Celtics have an average scoring differential of +7.8 points per game on the road.
The Celtics are currently in 1st place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 64-18. In non-conference games, they are 23-7 compared to 41-11 against the East.
Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game this season and 24.3 points per game in his last three games. Over his last three games, he also averaged 9.7 rebounds. Payton Pritchard has been shooting the ball well of late for the Celtics, hitting 63.6% of his shots in his last five games and averaging 16.8 points per game. In this stretch, he shot 47.6% from beyond the arc.
Heading into the game, the Celtics are the NBA’s top three-point shooting team, in terms of both three-point attempts and three-pointers made. They are averaging 16.5 made threes per game on 42.5 attempts. Overall, they are hitting 38% of their looks from beyond the arc. Boston is also one of the league’s best scoring teams this year, at 120.6 points per contest.
On the season, the Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams in the league, ranking 5th in points allowed per game at 108.8. They have been even better on the road, giving up just 109.9 points per game away from home, which is 4th in the NBA.
Boston has been able to limit opponents’ field goal percentage, ranking 2nd in the league at 45.4%. They have been especially good at defending inside the arc, allowing just 51.9% shooting on two-point attempts.
One area where the Celtics have struggled a bit defensively is defending the three-point line. They are 15th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.1%. However, they have done a good job of limiting opponents’ attempts from deep, as they are 23rd in the league in three-point attempts allowed per game.
Miami is currently 8th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 46-36. In the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place.
As the underdog, Miami is 12-26 this season and has gone 19-19 against the spread as the underdog. Today, they are getting 10.5 points and are 38-38 as the underdog.
In their last game, also against the Celtics, the Heat lost by a score of 104-84. They were 9.5-point underdogs in that game, and the O/U line was 205.
This season, Miami has an O/U record of 37-50, and their games have averaged 217.7 points per game. Today’s O/U line is 203.5, which is lower than their season average of 219.9.
In terms of their ATS record, the Heat are 43-41 for the season. At home, they are 17-26 ATS, compared to 26-15 on the road.
Miami comes into the game as one of the worst scoring teams in the league, at 110.1 points per contest. Looking at their home games, they are at 111.5 points per game, which is 24th in the NBA. The Heat’s pace of 95.8 possessions per game is the second-lowest rate in the league. The Heat are averaging 12.5 made threes per game, putting them 18th in the league. Their three-point shooting percentage of 37% is the 10th-best mark in the league.
Jimmy Butler is averaging 20.8 points per game this season, to go along with 5 assists and 5.3 rebounds. Terry Rozier is averaging 19.8 points and 5.6 assists. Over his last five games, Tyler Herro is averaging 19.8 points and 7.6 assists. In this stretch, he hit 38.5% of his threes. Bam Adebayo has hit 56.1% of his shots from the field in his last five games and 17.6 points.
When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat have been one of the league’s best units this season. They come into tonight’s game ranked 3rd in the NBA, allowing just 108.1 points per game. In terms of three-point defense, they have been solid as well, ranking 18th in the league at 35.4%.
One area where the Heat have excelled is in getting to the free-throw line. They are 3rd in the NBA in fewest made free throws allowed per game at 19.2.
Over their last five games, Miami has been even better on the defensive end, ranking 6th in field goal percentage allowed at 44.3%. In terms of two-point defense, they have been particularly stingy, ranking 8th in the league over that stretch.
With the Celtics being favored by 10.5, our NFL analytics models has this one playing out 116-111 in favor of the Celtics.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Betting Tips
- Take the Celtics on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Heat (+10.5)
- Projecting a combined 227 points, we like the over
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Jimmy Butler – Knee – Out
- Josh Richardson – Shoulder – Out
- Terry Rozier – Neck – Out
- Delon Wright – Personal – Probable
Boston Celtics Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
