Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Preview
Game three of this Eastern Conference first-round series between the Celtics and Heat is tied at one game apiece. Tip-off is at 6:00 PM ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami. TNT is carrying the game on TV. The Celtics are the one seed in the East and are favored by nine points on the road. The over/under line is sitting at 202.5 points, and the Celtics are -414 on the money line compared to the Heat at +321.
Check out BetCoco for Miami Heat – Boston Celtics odds
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The Celtics and Heat did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Celtics have a record of 2-1. However, against the spread the Heat went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 211 points per game.
- Although Boston has a straight up record of 2-3 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-4. The team averaged 110 points per game in these games.
- In their last ten games at home, the Heat have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 108 points per game in this stretch.
- Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Heat have a straight up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-1.
- Although the Celtics have a strong straight up record in their last five games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 2-2-1.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction
The Heat picked up a 111-101 win over the Celtics in the most recent game of this series. Miami came into the game as 14.5-point underdogs, and their win gave them a cover against the spread. The over/under line for the game was 205.5 points, and the teams surpassed that with a combined 212 points.
Offensively, the Heat hit 23 threes in the game while shooting 53.5% from beyond the arc. Tyler Herro led Miami with 24 points, and he also dished out 14 assists. Jaylen Brown had 33 points for the Celtics, and Jayson Tatum added 28.
Today, the Celtics are favored by 9 points on the road against the Heat. This season, Boston has been favored in 80 of their 82 games and has a record of 63-17 as the favorite. As the favorite, they have gone 40-36 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +11.9 points per game.
When looking at their ATS record on the road, the Celtics are 19-20 for the season. Their average scoring margin on the road is +7.5 PPG. Overall, the Celtics are 42-38 ATS this season.
In their most recent game against the Heat, the Celtics lost by a score of 111-101. They were favored by 14.5 points going into the game. The O/U line for that game was 205.5 points.
This season, the Celtics have an O/U record of 44-39-1. In their games, the average combined scoring is 229.3 points, compared to today’s line of 202.5 points.
Boston is currently in 1st place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 64-18. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 41-11 and 23-7 in non-conference games.
Offensively, the Celtics are averaging 120.6 points per game this season, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Despite their high-scoring average, they have been below the league average in terms of scoring in 29.3% of their games. Boston’s offense leads the league in both three-point attempts and makes this season, getting up 42.5 attempts and 16.5 makes per contest.
Payton Pritchard has been shooting the ball well of late, hitting 61.9% of his shots from the field in his last five games. This has led to an average of 18.6 points per game in his last five games. Jayson Tatum is averaging 23 points per game in his last three games but only 1.3 made threes in his last five games. For the season, Tatum is averaging 3.1 made threes per game on a shooting percentage of 37.6%.
When it comes to defense, the Boston Celtics have been one of the best units in the NBA this season. They come into tonight’s game against the Miami Heat ranked 5th in the league in points allowed per game at 109.1. Over their last five games, they have given up an average of 108.6 points per contest.
One area where Boston has been able to excel defensively is in the paint. They are currently 2nd in the NBA in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 51.9%. They have also been a strong rebounding team, ranking 2nd in the league in that category.
One area where the Celtics have struggled a bit defensively is in defending the three-point line. Over their last five games, opponents have shot 40.9% from beyond the arc. On the season, they are 17th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.1%.
Miami is 12-25 as the underdog this season and has gone 19-18 against the spread as the underdog. As the underdog, their scoring margin is -3.4 points per game. In today’s game, they are getting 9 points.
At home, the Heat are 17-25 ATS and have won three straight games straight up. Overall, their ATS record at home is 23-19 compared to 26-15 on the road.
In terms of their O/U record, Miami is 37-49 for the season. In their games this year, the average combined scoring total is 218 points, which is higher than today’s line of 202.5.
When looking at the Eastern Conference standings, the Heat are currently in 8th place with a record of 46-36. In the Southeast Division, they are 2nd. This season, they have gone 32-20 against other teams in the East and 14-16 in non-conference play.
Miami’s last game was also against the Celtics, and they won by a score of 111-101. The Heat were 14.5-point underdogs in that game. The O/U line for that game was 205.5, and Miami covered the spread.
Miami comes into the game as the 26th-ranked scoring team in the league, at 110.1 points per game. They have been a little better at home, averaging 112.1 points per contest on their home floor. The Heat’s pace of 95.8 possessions per game is the second-lowest rate in the league. The team’s three-point shooting percentage of 37% is 10th in the NBA.
Over his last five games, Tyler Herro is averaging 20.2 points per game while hitting 40.7% of his shots from the field. In these games, he also averaged 8.8 assists. Bam Adebayo is averaging 17 points and 7.6 rebounds over his last five games. For the season, he is averaging a double-double with 19.3 points and 10.4 rebounds.
When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA this season. They are currently ranked 3rd in the league in points allowed per game at 108.1. At home, they have been even better, ranking 8th in the NBA at 109.8 points per game.
One area where the Heat have been able to limit their opponents is from beyond the arc. On the season, they are 19th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.4%. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 11th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 34.7%.
One area where the Heat have struggled this season is on the boards. They are currently 26th in the NBA in rebounding at 42.3 rebounds per game. In terms of blocked shots, they are 30th in the league at 3.4 per game.
With a 9-point advantage on the spread, our projections favor the Celtics to secure a 116-113 victory.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Betting Tips
- Take the Celtics on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Heat (+9)
- Projecting a combined 229 points, we like the over
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Jimmy Butler – Knee – Out
- Josh Richardson – Shoulder – Out
- Terry Rozier – Neck – Out
- Delon Wright – Personal – Questionable
Boston Celtics Injury Report
- Luke Kornet – Calf – Probable
