Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Preview
The Pacers have a chance to close out this first-round series with the Bucks tonight as they currently lead 3-2. Tip-off for game six is at 6:30 PM ET from Gainbridge Fieldhouse and can be seen on TNT. The over/under line is at 212.5 points, and the Pacers are favored by 8 points at home. Their money line odds are -345 compared to the Bucks at +271.
Check out BetCoco for Indiana Pacers – Milwaukee Bucks odds
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Heading into this week’s matchup, the Pacers have the edge in their recent matchups against Milwaukee, posting a record of 2-1. In the last three games Indiana is averaging 113 points per game compared to 115 for the Bucks.
- When looking at their past ten road matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 4-6 while averaging 109 per game. The team went 2-8 overall in these games.
- When looking at their past three home matchups, Indiana has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 103 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
- Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Bucks have a straight up record of 4-6. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.
- Against the spread, the Pacers have put together 1-2 in their last three games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 2-1 straight up.
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction
The Bucks picked up a 115-92 win over the Pacers in the most recent game of this series. Milwaukee was a 4.5-point underdog at home and easily covered the spread. The over/under line for the game was 217.5 points, and the teams combined to score just 207 points.
After the Pacers jumped out to a 31-23 lead at the end of the first quarter, the Bucks took control of the game in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Milwaukee outscored Indiana 30-17 in the 2nd and 34-19 in the 3rd. Bobby Portis and Khris Middleton each had 29 points for the Bucks. Portis also had 10 rebounds, while Middleton knocked down four threes. Tyrese Haliburton was the Pacers’ leading scorer with 16 points.
The Bucks have an O/U record of 44-43 this season, and their games have averaged a combined 234.7 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 212.5 is lower than all of their previous games.
In terms of ATS, the Bucks are 38-49 this season and 17-25 on the road. As the underdog, they are 9-10 vs. the spread on the road and 6-13 overall.
Looking at their last game, the Bucks beat the Pacers by a score of 115-92. They were 4.5-point underdogs going into the game.
Milwaukee is currently 3rd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 49-33. Against the East, they are 34-18 compared to 15-15 in non-conference games.
On the road, the Bucks have a record of 18-24, and they are 6-13 as the underdog. Today, they are getting 8 points as the underdog.
Looking at Khris Middleton’s last five games, he has hit 49.5% of his shots from the field and averaged 26.8 points per game. He also averaged 9.4 rebounds and 5 assists in those games. Damian Lillard is averaging 32.3 points per game over his last three games, while also hitting 5.3 threes per game in that stretch.
Milwaukee is averaging 119 points per game this season, which is the 4th best mark in the league. Their scoring average on the road is 116.6 points per contest, which is also 4th. Overall, the Bucks are 6th in pace, averaging 99.9 possessions per game.
When it comes to points allowed per game, the Milwaukee Bucks finished the regular season ranked 21st in the NBA at 116.1 points per contest. On the road, they are giving up 118.2 points per game, which is 22nd in the league. Over their last five games, the Bucks have been slightly better on defense, holding opponents to 111.6 points per game, which is 16th in the NBA during that stretch.
Opponents have shot 47.0% from the field against the Bucks this season, which is 14th in the NBA. They have also done a good job of defending the three-point line, ranking 12th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.4%.
Despite being 27th in steals per game at 6.8, Milwaukee has done a good job of blocking shots, ranking 16th in the league at 5.0 blocks per contest. They have also been solid on the defensive glass, ranking 3rd in defensive rebounds per game.
The Pacers are favored by 8 points in today’s game against the Bucks. In the Eastern Conference, Indiana is currently in 6th place with a record of 47-35.
At home this season, the Pacers have gone 28-15 and have won seven straight games at home. Their average scoring margin at home is +6.9 points per game.
When favored this season, the Pacers have a record of 28-19 and are 22-25 against the spread as the favorite. Their ATS record at home is 23-19.
Indiana’s O/U record for the season is 46-41, and their games have averaged 242.4 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 212.5 is lower than their season average of 240.1.
In their last game against the Bucks, the Pacers lost by a score of 115-92. The O/U line for that game was 217.5, and Indiana was favored by 4.5 points going into the game.
In terms of ATS, the Pacers are 46-39 for the season and have gone 23-19 ATS at home. In their last game, they did not cover the spread against the Bucks.
Coming into the game, the Pacers are the NBA’s top-scoring team, averaging 123.3 points per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 125.4 points per contest. Indiana’s field goal percentage of 50% is the best mark in the league. In terms of two-point field goal percentage, the Pacers are also at the top of the league, hitting 58% of their shots.
Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner have been carrying the Pacers offense of late. Siakam is averaging 23 points and 9.2 rebounds in his last five games, while Turner is at 22 points and 7.6 rebounds. Over this stretch, Turner has hit 3.6 threes per game on a shooting percentage of 47.4%. Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with a back injury. For the season, he is averaging 20.1 points and 10.9 assists.
Heading into their matchup with the Indiana Pacers, the Milwaukee Bucks will be facing a defense that has struggled this season. The Pacers are 27th in the league in points allowed per game at 119.8. Indiana has been especially bad at home, where they are giving up 118.6 points per contest.
When it comes to three-point shooting, opponents have struggled to knock down shots against the Pacers. Indiana is first in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.5%. On the season, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average in 82.9% of games vs. Indiana.
One area where the Pacers have struggled is at the free-throw line. They are 30th in the league in free throws made per game allowed at 25.6. Over their last five games, Indiana’s defense has been slightly better, ranking 20th in field goal percentage allowed at 48.3%.
Despite being 8 point underdogs, we predict the Bucks to come out on top with a final score of 113-110.
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips
- We like the Bucks on the moneyline (+271)
- The Bucks are also our pick on the spread at +8
- Projecting a combined 223 points, we like the over
Indiana Pacers Injury Report
- Tyrese Haliburton – Back – Questionable
- Bennedict Mathurin – Shoulder – Out
Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – Calf – Doubtful
- Khris Middleton – Ankle – Probable
- Patrick Beverley – Oblique – Probable
- Damian Lillard – Achilles – Doubtful
