Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Preview
The Timberwolves and Nuggets are set to tip-off game two of this Western Conference first-round series at 10:00 PM ET from Ball Arena in Denver. Minnesota leads the series 1-0, and they are the slight underdogs heading into Monday night’s matchup. The over/under line is sitting at 205.5 points, and the Nuggets are favored by 5.5 points. Denver is -227 on the money line compared to the Timberwolves at +185. TNT is carrying this game on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Denver Nuggets – Minnesota Timberwolves odds
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The Timberwolves and Nuggets did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Timberwolves have a record of 2-1. The Timberwolves also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 212 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
- The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last road games and 4-1 straight-up.
- The Nuggets are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 3-2 straight-up.
- In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Timberwolves have a strong straight up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.
- Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 7-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
Anthony Edwards had a huge game for the Timberwolves in their most recent game against the Nuggets, scoring 43 points. Minnesota pulled off the upset, winning 106-99 as 4.5-point underdogs. Jokic had a big game for the Nuggets as well, scoring 32 points, but it wasn’t enough to get the win.
Edwards and the Timberwolves got it going in the 4th quarter, outscoring the Nuggets 33-28 in the final period. The game also fell 4.5 points short of the over/under line of 209.5 points.
Minnesota has won five straight games and is 56-26 on the season, which is good for 3rd place in the Western Conference. Today, they are 5.5-point underdogs and have an ATS record of 45-41.
This season, the Timberwolves have been the underdog in 22 of their games, going 12-10 in those games. Against the spread, they are 14-8 as the underdog on the road and 12-10 overall.
As the underdog, Minnesota has covered the spread in three straight games and has an average scoring differential of +0.7 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 205.5 is lower than their season average of 219.4 points per game.
In their last game against the Nuggets, the Timberwolves won 106-99 as 4.5-point underdogs. The game finished with a combined scoring total of 205 points, which was below the O/U line of 209.5.
Minnesota has an O/U record of 45-42 for the season, and 87 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 205.5. On average, their games have finished with 219.4 points.
Minnesota comes into the game as the 8th best shooting team in the league, with a team field goal percentage of 48%. They are also 8th in true shooting percentage. The Timberwolves are 3rd in three-point shooting percentage but just 16th in three-point makes. Anthony Edwards has been hot of late, averaging 33.4 points per game over his last five games while hitting 53.2% of his shots from the field. In these games, he also averaged 7.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists.
Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 52.4% of his threes in his last five games, averaging 2.2 made threes per game in that stretch. For the season, he is averaging 21.8 points and 8.3 rebounds. Overall, the Timberwolves are averaging 113 points per game this year, which is 18th in the league.
When it comes to defense, the Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 106.3 points per game. They have been just as stingy on the road, giving up 109.2 points per game, which is also 2nd in the league.
Minnesota has done a great job of defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.7% from beyond the arc. Overall, they have been able to hold teams to just 45.2% shooting from the field, which is tops in the NBA.
Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have been even better, allowing just 102.4 points per game. However, in that stretch, they have struggled to keep opponents off the free-throw line, giving up 21.8 made free-throws per game.
The Nuggets are looking to bounce back after losing to the Timberwolves by a score of 106-99. In that game, Denver was favored by 4.5 points and had an ATS record of 22-22 at home.
Overall, the Nuggets finished the regular season with a record of 57-25, which is good for 2nd place in the Western Conference. Against the West, they went 33-19 and 24-6 in non-conference games.
As the favorite this season, Denver has a record of 56-21 and is favored by 5.5 points in today’s game. However, they have lost three straight ATS as the favorite and have an ATS record of 34-41 as the favorite.
This season, the Nuggets have gone 35-51-2 on the O/U and have seen their last two games go under the line. On average, their games have finished with 223.7 points.
Looking at their ATS record for the season, the Nuggets are 40-46 overall and 22-22 at home. Today’s game is their 4th straight game without covering the spread.
Overall, the Nuggets are 14th in scoring at 114.9 points per game. At home, they are 11th in the league, averaging 117.4 points per contest. Denver’s field goal percentage of 49% is the 4th best mark in the league. Despite being a good shooting team, they are just 29th in free throw attempts and makes.
Looking at Nikola Jokic’s last five games, he is averaging 28.2 points, 15.4 rebounds, and 10.2 assists. Michael Porter Jr. has hit 54.1% of his shots from the field and 51.2% of his threes in that stretch, averaging 23 points and eight rebounds. Jamal Murray’s season shooting percentage is just 40.9%.
At home this season, the Nuggets have been one of the best defensive teams in the league, allowing just 108.3 points per game, which is 5th best in the NBA. Overall, Denver is 6th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 109.4. Over their last five games, the Nuggets have been even better on defense, giving up just 107 points per game, which is 10th best in the league over that span.
One area where the Nuggets have excelled this season is in defending the three-point line. On the year, Denver is 2nd in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed at 35.1%. Over their last five games, the Nuggets have been even better in this area, holding opponents to just 32.4% from beyond the arc.
Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 78% of games vs. the Nuggets this season. In terms of made threes, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average in 75.6% of games vs. Denver.
Even though they are 5.5 point underdogs, we see the Timberwolves winning this game by a score of 112-111.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips
- We like the Timberwolves on the moneyline (+185)
- The Timberwolves are also our pick on the spread at +5.5
- Projecting a combined 223 points, we like the over
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Jamal Murray – Calf – Questionable
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
