Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Preview
The Timberwolves and Nuggets are set to tip-off their Western Conference first-round series at 7:00 PM ET from Ball Arena in Denver. TNT is carrying the game on TV. The Nuggets are the slight favorite at -4.5 and are -186 on the money line. The Timberwolves are +153, and the over/under line is 208.5.
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Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Last season, the Timberwolves and Nuggets did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Nuggets have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread the Timberwolves went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 219 points per game.
- The Timberwolves are 2-1 ATS in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.
- When looking at their past ten home matchups, Denver has an ATS record of 4-6 while averaging 112 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
- As the betting underdog, the Timberwolves have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 2-1.
- Against the spread, the Nuggets have put together 0-3 in their last three games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 2-1 straight up.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
Minnesota’s 122-116 win over the Suns closed out their series in four games, as they swept Phoenix 4-0. The Timberwolves picked up the series-clinching win on the road and scored 122 points in the game. Their over/under line was 213 points, and they surpassed this line by 25 points.
Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 40 points and hit seven threes on 53.8% shooting from beyond the arc. Karl-Anthony Towns also had a strong game, finishing with 28 points and 10 rebounds.
The Nuggets are coming off a 108-106 win over the Lakers, which clinched their series vs. Los Angeles. Denver won the series 4-1, and they closed it out on their home floor. Their 108 points were below their season average, and they hit 16 threes on 42.1% shooting from beyond the arc. As a team, they shot 47.2% from the field.
Defensively, the Nuggets held the Lakers to 106 points and 46% shooting. They also limited the Lakers to 10 threes on 28% shooting from deep. Nikola Jokic had a big game for the Nuggets, finishing with 25 points, 20 rebounds, and nine assists. Jamal Murray led the team with 32 points and also hit five threes.
Minnesta’s O/U record for the season is 45-41, and the O/U has gone over in their last two games. This year, their games have averaged 219.6 points per game compared to today’s line of 208.5.
In their win over the Suns, the teams combined for 238 points, which was well above the O/U line of 213. Minnesota was also an underdog in that game, getting +1 and winning by six.
As the underdog, Minnesota is 11-10 straight-up and 13-8 ATS. They have been the underdog in 21 of their 82 games this season and have won their last two games as the underdog.
Against Western Conference teams, Minnesota has gone 37-15 compared to 19-11 in non-conference games. This has them in 3rd place in the Western Conference, and they are also 3rd in the Northwest Division.
This season, Minnesota is 44-41 ATS, including a 24-18 ATS record on the road. They have covered the spread in four straight games and are 28-15 straight-up on the road.
Minnesota comes into the game ranked 18th in the NBA in scoring at 113 points per game. They have been a little better on the road, averaging 114.4 points per game compared to 112 at home. The Timberwolves are 8th in field goal percentage this season, connecting on 48% of their shots. They are also one of the league’s top three-point shooting teams, at 38%.
Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 27.4 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he hit 50.6% of his shots from the field. Over his last five, Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 47.6% of his threes and averaged 17.4 points. Rudy Gobert is averaging 12.9 rebounds per game this season and 16.2 points in his last five games while shooting 65% from the field.
When it comes to defense, the Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 106.4 points per game. They have been even better on the road, giving up just 109.5 points per game, which is the 3rd best mark in the league.
Minnesota has done an excellent job of defending the three-point line this season, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.6% from deep. In fact, in 75.6% of their games, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average.
Overall, the Timberwolves have been the best field goal percentage defense in the NBA at 45.1%. They have also been a top-10 shot-blocking team, averaging 6.1 blocks per game.
Denver has a straight-up record of 57-25 this season, which has them in 2nd place in the Western Conference. In the Western Conference, they are 33-19 compared to 24-6 against non-conference opponents.
At home, the Nuggets are 36-8 this season and have won 7 straight games. However, they are 22-21 against the spread at home and have failed to cover in their last two home games.
This season, the Nuggets have been favored in 76 of their 82 games and have a record of 56-20 as the favorite. Against the spread, they are 34-40 as the favorite and have an average scoring margin of +6.2 points per game.
In their last game, the Nuggets defeated the Lakers by a score of 108-106. The O/U line for that game was 216.5, and Denver was favored by 6.5 points.
On the season, the Nuggets have an O/U record of 35-50-2, and their games have averaged 223.9 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 208.5, and 86 of their games have had higher over/under lines.
The Nuggets are 40-45 ATS this season, and they have failed to cover in their last two games. Their ATS record at home is 22-21, while their road ATS record is 18-24.
Denver is averaging 117.8 points per game at home this season, which is the 10th best mark in the league. Overall, they are 13th in scoring at 114.9 points per contest. The Nuggets are near the top of the league in field goal percentage, at 49%, but they are just 25th in three-point shooting. Despite their low pace, the Nuggets are the 3rd best team in the league in assists.
Nikola Jokic is averaging 28.2 points and 16.2 rebounds in his last five games. Over this stretch, he also averaged 9.8 assists. Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 22.8 points in his last five games while hitting 48.8% of his threes. Jamal Murray is questionable with a calf injury and has averaged 23.6 points and 7.2 assists in his last five games.
Coming into tonight’s game, the Denver Nuggets are 6th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 109.4. At home, they are giving up 108.3 points per game, which is 5th best in the league.
Denver’s three-point defense has been outstanding this season, as they are 2nd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.1%. On the season, opponents are making just 11.1 three-pointers per game vs. the Nuggets, which is also 2nd best in the league.
Over their last five games, Denver’s defense has been even better vs. the three-point shot, as they are 3rd in three-point shooting percentage allowed during that stretch at 29.8%.
With a 4.5-point advantage on the spread, our projections favor the Nuggets to secure a 113-112 victory.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips
- Take the Nuggets on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Timberwolves (+4.5)
- Projecting a combined 225 points, we like the over
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Jamal Murray – Calf – Questionable
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
