Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Preview
The Nuggets and Timberwolves are all tied up at 2-2 heading into game five of this first-round Western Conference matchup. Tip-off is at 10:30 PM ET from Ball Arena in Denver. TNT is carrying Tuesday night’s game on TV. The over/under line is sitting at 205.5 points, and the Nuggets are favored by four points at home. Denver is at -184 on the money line, while the Timberwolves are at +152.
Check out BetCoco for Denver Nuggets – Minnesota Timberwolves odds
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head and Key Stats
In the last three games that the Nuggets have hosted the Timberwolves, they are a perfect 3-0. When looking at the last three head-to-head matchups between the Timberwolves and Nuggets, only 3 points per game has separated the teams, with the Nuggets going 2-1 vs. the spread.
- Minnesota has played well in their previous three road games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 111 points per game while allowing 98. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-0.
- Across their last three home contests, Denver has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 113 points per game.
- Minnesota has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
- Going back to their previous five games as the favorite, Denver has an ATS mark of 0-5 while going 2-3 straight up.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
It was the Nuggets who came away with the win in the most recent game of this series, as they picked up an 8-point win over the Timberwolves. Heading into the game, the Timberwolves were favored by 3.5 points at home, but the Nuggets covered the spread. Denver got off to a good start in the game, outscoring the Timberwolves 29-24 in the 1st quarter and then 35-25 in the 2nd. The over/under line for the game was set at 205 points, and the teams combined to score 222.
Anthony Edwards had a huge game for the Timberwolves, scoring 44 points and hitting five threes. But it was Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets who came away with the win. Jokic had 35 points, seven assists, and seven rebounds. The Nuggets shot the ball well in the game, hitting 57% of their shots and 44.8% of their threes. The 13 threes made by the Nuggets was right at their season average.
Minnesota has lost two straight games and is hoping to avoid the season sweep against the Nuggets after losing to them 115-107. In the Western Conference, the Timberwolves are currently in 3rd place with a record of 56-26.
On the road, the Timberwolves have won four straight games and have a record of 30-15 for the season. Against the spread on the road, they are 26-18 compared to 20-25 at home.
As the underdog, Minnesota has gone 13-10 straight up and 15-8 against the spread. Today, they are getting 4 points and are 15-8 ATS as the underdog.
This season, Minnesota has gone 47-43 on the over/under, and their games have averaged 218.9 points per game. In their last two games, the combined scoring has gone over the O/U line.
This season, the Timberwolves are the NBA’s 8th best shooting team, with a field goal percentage of 48%. They have been even better from beyond the arc, as their three-point shooting percentage of 38% is the 2nd best mark in the league. Despite their high efficiency, the Timberwolves are just 18th in scoring at 113 points per game.
Minnesota will be looking for another big game from Anthony Edwards, who is averaging 34.6 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he shot 59.6% from the field and 47.5% from beyond the arc. Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 2.8 threes per game in his last five games while shooting 58.3% from downtown. Rudy Gobert has not made a three this season.
When it comes to defense, the Timberwolves have been one of the best teams in the league this season, ranking 1st in points allowed per game at 106.2. Their defense has been even better on the road, giving up just 108.6 points per game away from home (2nd).
Minnesota has done a great job at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.9% from beyond the arc (4th). In terms of overall field goal percentage, the Timberwolves are 2nd in the NBA at 45.3%.
Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have given up 105.4 points per game (8th). During that stretch, opponents have shot 48.8% from the field and 40.7% from three.
The Nuggets are currently 2nd in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. In the West, they have gone 33-19 and are 10-6 against other teams in the Northwest Division.
At home, the Nuggets have a record of 36-10 and have gone 22-23 ATS. On average, they are outscoring their opponents by 8.3 points per game at home.
In games against Western Conference opponents, the Nuggets are 24-6 compared to 33-19 in non-conference games. On the road, they are 27-18 and have an ATS record of 20-24.
Denver has won their last two games straight-up and are 42-47 ATS for the season. As the favorite, they are 34-42 ATS and have gone 56-22 straight-up. Today, they are favored by 4 points.
In terms of their O/U record, the Nuggets are 37-52-2 for the season. The over has hit in their last two games and today’s O/U line is 205.5.
In their most recent game, the Nuggets beat the Timberwolves by a score of 115-107. Denver covered the spread as 3.5-point underdogs and the O/U line for the game was 205 points.
Denver comes into the game as the NBA’s 15th ranked scoring offense, at 114.9 points per game. At home, they are 11th in the league, averaging 116.5 points per contest. The Nuggets have been an efficient shooting team this year, as their field goal percentage of 49% is the 4th best mark in the league.
Nikola Jokic has been playing well of late, averaging 26.4 points, 8.4 assists, and 13 rebounds in his last five games. Over his last five games, Jamal Murray has averaged 20 points and 5.2 assists while shooting 40% from downtown. Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 2.8 made threes per game on a three-point shooting percentage of 50%.
When it comes to defense, the Nuggets have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season. They are currently 6th in the league in points allowed per game at 109.1. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 4th in the league at 103 points per game.
One of the reasons for their success has been their ability to defend the three-point line. On the season, they are 2nd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.2%. Over their last five games, they have given up just 35.7% from beyond the arc.
Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 81.7% of games vs. the Nuggets. They have also held opponents to fewer made threes than their season average in 78.0% of games.
Despite being 4 point underdogs, we predict the Timberwolves to come out on top with a final score of 114-113.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips
- We like the Timberwolves on the moneyline (+152)
- The Timberwolves are also our pick on the spread at +4
- Projecting a combined 227 points, we like the over
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Jamal Murray – Calf – Questionable
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
