Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Preview
At 10:00 ET, the Miami Heat will travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets at Ball Arena. Miami comes into this non-conference matchup on a five-game win streak and currently sits fifth in the Eastern Conference. Denver, on the other hand, is third in the West and has won four straight.
Oddsmakers have the Nuggets as 4.5-point favorites in this one, with the over/under line set at 214.5. TNT will have the television coverage.
Check out BetCoco for Denver Nuggets – Miami Heat odds
Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Last season, the Heat and Nuggets did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Nuggets have the leg up at 3-0. The Nuggets also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 195 points per game leading to an over/under record of 0-3.
- In their last ten games away from home, the Heat have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 5-3-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 106 points per game in this stretch.
- Denver has played well in their previous five home games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 112 points per game while allowing 113. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
- Through their last five games as the underdog, the Heat have an ATS record of 5-0 and a straight up mark of 4-1.
- The Nuggets have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.
Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Prediction
Miami’s ATS win streak is up to eight games, and they have covered the spread in five straight games on the road. Overall, their ATS record on the road is 16-11 compared to 12-16 at home.
This season, Miami has been the underdog in 25 of their 58 games and have gone 10-15 in those games. As the underdog, they are 13-12 ATS, with an average scoring differential of -1.4 points per game.
In their last game against the Trail Blazers, the Heat won 106-96 as 7-point favorites. The O/U line for that game was 212 points. This win improved Miami’s record to 33-25, which is currently 5th in the Eastern Conference.
On average, Miami’s games have finished with 220.5 points this season, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 214.5. Their O/U record for the season is 22-36.
When it comes to scoring, the Heat have struggled this season, ranking 27th in the league with 110.6 points per game. On the road, Miami is averaging 108.3 points per game.
The Heat have been an above-average three-point shooting team, hitting 37% of their attempts from beyond the arc. Overall, they are 24th in field goal percentage at 46%.
So far this season, Miami has outscored the NBA scoring average in just 34.5% of their games. In terms of pace, the Heat are 28th in the league at 96.3 possessions per game.
The Heat’s defense is presently ranked 3rd in the league, allowing an average of 109.9 points per contest. In the terms of takeaways, Heat are causing 12.3 turnovers per game, ranking 8th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 30th in rejections, averaging 3.4 blocked shots each game.
Denver’s ATS win streak is at four games, and they are 26-31 on the season. At home, they are 14-13 ATS and have covered the spread in their last two games at home.
On average, Denver’s games have finished with a combined scoring total of 225 points, which is 11.5 points higher than today’s O/U line of 214.5. The team’s last two games have finished below the O/U line.
In the Western Conference, the Nuggets are currently in 3rd place with a record of 40-19. Against the Western Conference, they are 23-13 and 5-5 against other teams in the Northwest Division.
Denver is favored by 4.5 points today and has a 37-13 record as the favorite. Their ATS record as the favorite is 22-26, and they have covered the spread in three straight games as the favorite.
The Nuggets won their last game against the Kings by a score of 117-96. They were favored by 9.5 points in that game and are now 4-5 ATS at home. The O/U line for the game was 228 points.
At home, the Nuggets are averaging 119.0 points per game, which is 9th in the NBA. Overall, Denver is 17th in the league with 114.6 points per game. In terms of pace, the Nuggets are 29th in the NBA.
One area where the Nuggets have excelled this season is their field goal percentage. Denver is shooting 49% from the field, which is 6th in the league. However, the Nuggets are just 15th in three-point shooting at 36%.
When it comes to getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets are 28th in the NBA in free-throw attempts. In terms of assists, Denver is 5th in the league with an average of 29.1 per game.
This season, the Nuggets defense has been impressive, holding the 7th position in the league while permitting an average of 110.4 points per contest. Opponents are hitting 52.5% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 36.2% of their three-point attempts.
Based on our analysis, we foresee the Nuggets winning the game with a predicted score of 123-114.
Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Betting Tips
- Take the Nuggets on the moneyline
- The Nuggets should also cover at -4.5
- Projecting a combined 237 points, we like the over
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Jamal Murray – Undisclosed – Questionable
- Vlatko Cancar – Knee – Out
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Kevin Love – Heel – Out
- Josh Richardson – Shoulder – Out
- Thomas Bryant – Suspension – Out
- Tyler Herro – Knee – Questionable
- Dru Smith – Knee – Out
- Orlando Robinson – Back – Probable
