Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview
The Thunder and Mavericks are set to tip-off game four of this first-round Western Conference series at 9:30 PM ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Mavericks are up 2-1 in the series and are the slight favorite at -1. The over/under line is 213.5 points, and the money line odds are -118 for the Mavericks and -102 for the Thunder. TNT is carrying the game on TV.
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Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Last season, the Thunder and Mavericks did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Mavericks have the leg up at 2-1. The Mavericks also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 215 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
- Across their last three road contests, Oklahoma City has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 101 points per game.
- Dallas has played well in their previous three home games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 112 points per game while allowing 106. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
- Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Thunder have a straight up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 0-3.
- In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 7-3 and an ATS mark of 7-3.
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
The Mavericks won the most recent game of this Thunder vs. Mavericks series by a score of 105-101. Dallas was favored by 1.5 points heading into the game and covered the spread. The game also fell 11.5 points short of the over/under line of 217.5 points. P.J. Washington led the Mavericks with 27 points, and he knocked down five threes. Luka Doncic added 22 points and 15 rebounds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder, finishing with 31 points, six assists, and 10 rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander made 66.7% of his threes and hit two threes. The Thunder made just 10 threes as a team, and they shot 33.3% from outside. Dallas also shot 33.3% from three and made 11 threes.
Oklahoma City is currently 1st in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. In the West, they are 36-16 against other conference teams and 21-9 against the East.
The Thunder have lost their last two games and are 26-18 on the road this season. Their average scoring differential on the road is +2.3 points per game.
As the underdog, the Thunder are 10-12 this season, and they have gone 12-10 ATS as the underdog. Today’s O/U line of 213.5 is lower than their season average of 230.8.
In their most recent game, the Thunder lost to the Mavericks by a score of 105-101. The O/U line for that game was 217.5, and OKC was a 1.5-point underdog going into the game.
The Thunder have an ATS record of 51-38 this season and have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. Their O/U record for the season is 46-42-1.
Oklahoma City comes into the game as the NBA’s 3rd ranked scoring offense, at 120.1 points per contest. This season, they have been below the league average in terms of scoring in 37.8% of their games. The Thunder’s three-point shooting percentage of 38% is the best mark in the league. Overall, they are 3rd in field goal percentage, at 49%.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.2 points per game over his last five games, along with 6.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Jalen Williams is averaging 19.1 points for the season and 19.8 over his last five games.
On the season, the Thunder have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 10th in points allowed per game at 111.4. They have been even better on the road, giving up just 113.7 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
Over their last five games, Oklahoma City has been even stingier on the defensive end, allowing just 98.6 points per contest. During that stretch, they have been especially good at defending the two-point shot, ranking 1st in the league at 45.6%.
One area where the Thunder have struggled defensively this season is defending the three-point line. On the year, they are 21st in three-point percentage allowed at 36.0%. Opponents have also attempted 36.9 threes per game against them, which is 24th in the NBA.
The Mavericks are favored by 1 point in today’s game against the Thunder. This season, they have been favored in 57 of their 82 games and have gone 42-15 in those games. Dallas has covered the spread in their last two games and have an ATS record of 24-21 at home.
On average, the Mavericks’ games have seen a combined scoring total of 231.2 points, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 213.5. This season, 87 of their games have had higher O/U lines than 213.5.
In their most recent game against the Thunder, the Mavericks won 105-101 as 1.5-point favorites. The teams combined to score 206 points, which was below the O/U line of 217.5.
Against Western Conference teams, the Mavericks have gone 31-21, which is the 5th-best record in the West. In the Southwest Division, they are in 1st place with a record of 50-32.
For the season, the Mavericks are 54-37 against the spread and have covered in their last two games. At home, they are 24-21 ATS, while going 30-16 ATS on the road.
For the Mavericks to get the win, they will need Luka Doncic to have a big game. Over his last five games, he has averaged 26.6 points, 8.8 assists, and 9 rebounds. Doncic is questionable with a knee/ankle injury. On the season, he is averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds. Kyrie Irving is averaging 25.6 points, 5.2 assists, and 5 rebounds.
Dallas is averaging 117.9 points per game for the season, which is 8th in the NBA. At home, they are 9th in the league at 117.7 points per contest. The Mavericks are 3rd in both three-point attempts and makes but are just 15th in three-point shooting percentage. Looking at their two-point shooting percentage, they are 6th in the league.
When it comes to defense, the Dallas Mavericks have been middle of the pack this season, coming in at 17th in points allowed per game at 114.4. At home, they’ve been slightly worse, giving up 113.9 points per contest.
Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even stingier, allowing just 104.4 points per game, which is 7th in the league during that stretch. During this same stretch, opposing teams have shot just 43.7% from the field and 32.8% from three.
On the season, opponents have shot 47.3% from the field and 36.8% from three against the Mavericks, who are 15th in blocked shots per game (5.0) and 24th in steals per game (6.9).
Even though they are considered 1-point underdogs, our projection points to a 118-114 win for the Thunder.
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Tips
- We like the Thunder on the moneyline (-102)
- The Thunder are also our pick on the spread at +1
- Projecting a combined 232 points, we like the over
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
- Maxi Kleber – Shoulder – Out
- Luka Doncic – Knee/Ankle – Questionable
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper – Ankle – Out
Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
No Injuries Reported
