Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Preview
The Mavericks head into game four of this Western Conference Finals matchup leading the series 3-0. The 5th-seeded Mavericks will host the 3rd-seeded Timberwolves at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Tip-off is set for 8:30 PM ET. The over/under is 210.5 points, and the Mavericks are favored by -2.
Check out BetCoco for Dallas Mavericks – Minnesota Timberwolves odds
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Across the previous three matchups between Minnesota and Dallas, the Mavericks have played well, sitting at 3-0. However, the average point differential between the two teams has been been close, with Dallas averaging 111 points and Minnesota at 106.
- Across the Timberwolves last ten road games, the team averaged 108 points per game while allowing 105. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 6-4, while going 6-4 straight-up.
- In their last ten games at home, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 104 points per game in this stretch.
- The last ten games that Minnesota was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 6-4 straight up.
- Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
The Mavericks picked up a 116-107 win over the Timberwolves in the most recent game of this series. Dallas was favored by 1.5 points and easily covered the spread thanks to their 9-point win. Going into the game, the over/under line was 208 points, and the teams combined to score 223 points.
Both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving scored 33 points for the Mavericks, and Dallas shot 55.9% from the field. The Timberwolves were led by Anthony Edwards, who had 26 points. Minnesota made just nine threes on 30% shooting from beyond the arc.
In Minnesota’s last game against the Mavericks, the teams combined for 223 points, which was over the O/U line of 208. The Timberwolves lost the game by a score of 116-107.
This season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 51-45 and has gone over the total in their last three games. Today’s O/U line is set at 210.5 points, which is lower than their season average of 219.1.
Against the spread, Minnesota is 48-47 for the season and has failed to cover in their last three games. On the road, they are 27-20 ATS compared to 21-27 ATS at home.
For the season, Minnesota has an average scoring differential of +4.8 points per game on the road. At home, their scoring differential is +7.9 PPG. Their O/U record for the season is 51-45.
Minnesota is currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 and 37-15 against other Western Conference teams.
In terms of being the underdog, Minnesota has a record of 14-12 and is 16-10 ATS as the underdog. Today, they are getting 2 points on the spread.
Minnesota comes into the game as the 20th ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per contest. They have been slightly better on the road this season, at 113.2 points per game, compared to 111.3 at home. The Timberwolves are the 3rd best three-point shooting team in the league, hitting 38% of their shots from downtown.
Anthony Edwards has averaged 21.8 points per game over his last five games, to go along with 7 assists and 7.4 rebounds. Jaden McDaniels has hit 63.3% of his shots from the field in his last five games and is averaging 17 points in that stretch. Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid are both averaging over 13.5 points per game this season and have hit over 41% of their threes.
As the Timberwolves head into tonight’s game against the Mavericks, they are once again the top-ranked defense in the NBA, allowing just 105.9 points per game. This season, Minnesota has been able to keep opponents below their season average in 86.6% of their games.
One of the keys to their success has been their ability to defend the three-point line. On the season, the Timberwolves are third in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.8%. In addition, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average in 84.1% of their games vs. Minnesota.
Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have been even better, ranking fourth in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 31.3%.
The Mavericks are favored by 2 points in today’s game against the Timberwolves. This season, Dallas has been favored in 60 of their 82 games and has gone 44-16 in those games. Their ATS record as the favorite is 38-22.
Dallas has won five straight games and is currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 and 11-5 against their division.
On the season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 45-52 and have gone over the line in their last four games. Today’s O/U line is 210.5, and their games have averaged 230.1 points per game this season.
In their last game against the Timberwolves, the Mavericks won 116-107 as 1.5-point favorites. The teams’ combined scoring was 223, and the O/U line was 208.
Dallas has an ATS record of 58-39 for the season, including going 25-23 at home. Their average scoring margin at home is +3.7 points per game, and they have covered the spread in their last three home games.
This season, the Mavericks are 10th in the league in scoring at home, at 117.2 points per game. Overall, they are at 117.9 points per contest, which is 9th in the NBA. Looking at their pace, the Mavericks are 14th in the league, averaging 99.6 possessions per game. Dallas is one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, as they are 4th in both three-point attempts and makes.
Luka Doncic has been carrying the Mavericks offense of late, averaging 31.6 points per game over his last five games. This has come while hitting 4.4 threes per game on a shooting percentage of 44.9%. Across his last five games, Kyrie Irving has hit 2.6 threes per game and is averaging 23.4 points per game in that stretch. For the season, Irving is averaging 25.6 points per game.
When it comes to defending the three-point line, the Mavericks have been average this season, allowing opponents to shoot 36.5% from beyond the arc (16th). In terms of three-point attempts, Dallas is right in the middle of the pack at 35.3 per game (14th).
Over their last five games, opposing teams have shot just 33.4% from three-point range against the Mavericks (6th). In terms of made free-throws, Dallas has done a good job of not fouling, as they are 14th in made free-throws allowed per game (21.5).
Overall, the Mavericks are 17th in points allowed per game (113.8). In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Dallas is 13th at 47.1%. Inside the arc, they are 10th in two-point shooting percentage allowed (53.8%).
Even though they are considered 2-point underdogs, our projection points to a 112-111 win for the Timberwolves.
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips
- We like the Timberwolves on the moneyline (+105)
- The Timberwolves are also our pick on the spread at +2
- Projecting a combined 223 points, we like the over
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
- Maxi Kleber – Shoulder – Questionable
- Luka Doncic – Knee/Ankle – Questionable
- Dereck Lively II – Neck – Doubtful
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper – Ankle – Out
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
- Mike Conley – Soleus – Questionable
