Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Preview
The Mavericks head into game three of this Western Conference Finals matchup leading the series 2-0. The 5th-seeded Mavericks will host the 3rd-seeded Timberwolves at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET. The over/under line is currently at 207.5 points, and the Mavericks are favored by -2.5.
Check out BetCoco for Dallas Mavericks – Minnesota Timberwolves odds
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head and Key Stats
The last three times the Timberwolves have travelled to take on the Mavericks, they are 2-1. In addition to going 2-1 vs. the spread in the last three head-to-head games vs. the Timberwolves, the Mavericks are 2-1 ATS the last three times they have hosted the Timberwolves.
- In their last ten games away from home, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 108 points per game in this stretch.
- Across their last three home contests, Dallas has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-0. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 107 points per game.
- In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Timberwolves have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.
- The Mavericks have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
The Mavericks picked up a 109-108 win over the Timberwolves in the most recent game of this series, and they also covered the spread as six-point underdogs. Dallas outscored Minnesota 30-22 in the fourth quarter to pull out the win. Luka Doncic had a big game for the Mavericks, finishing with a triple-double, as he scored 32 points, dished out 13 assists and grabbed 10 rebounds.
Coming into the game, the over/under line was set at 207.5 points, and the teams combined to score 217, giving the over bettors a win. The Timberwolves shot just 41.2% from the field, which was below their season average, but they did hit 38.7% of their threes. Naz Reid had a big game for the Timberwolves, as he hit 7 threes and finished with 23 points.
Minnesota’s O/U record for the season is now 50-45-0 after going over the line in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 218.1 points, compared to today’s line of 207.5.
In terms of their ATS record, the Timberwolves are 48-46 for the season and have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. On the road, they are 27-19 vs. the spread and have an average scoring differential of +5.1 PPG.
Looking at the Western Conference standings, the Timberwolves are currently in 3rd place with a record of 56-26. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 37-15 and 12-4 in their division.
Minnesota’s last game was also against the Mavericks, and they lost by a score of 109-108. The Timberwolves were favored by 6 points in that game and are currently 2.5-point underdogs for today’s matchup.
Minnesota’s offense is averaging 113 points per game this season, which is 20th in the league. They have been slightly better on the road, at 113.4 points per game, compared to 111.3 points per game at home. The Timberwolves are one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams in the league, as they have hit 38% of their looks from downtown this season.
Anthony Edwards is averaging 20.2 points per game over his last five games, to go along with 7 assists and 6.4 rebounds. Jaden McDaniels has hit 58% of his shots from the field in his last five games and 15.8 points per game in that stretch. Mike Conley and Naz Reid are the Timberwolves top three-point shooters this season, but Conley is questionable for this game with a Soleus injury.
When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves are the best in the NBA, allowing just 105.8 points per game. They have been particularly stingy on the road, where they are giving up just 108.3 points per contest.
Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have been even better, allowing just 97.8 points per game. During that stretch, opponents have made just 30.7% of their three-point attempts.
On the season, Minnesota has been able to hold opponents under their season average in 85.4% of their games. They have also been able to limit opponents’ three-point shooting, allowing just 11.2 made threes per game, which is 3rd in the NBA.
Today, the Mavericks are favored by 2.5 points against the Timberwolves. This season, Dallas has been favored in 59 of their 82 games and has a record of 43-16 in those games. As the favorite, they have gone 37-22 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +6.7 points per game.
At home, the Mavericks are 24-23 against the spread this season and have an average scoring margin of +3.6 points per game. Their ATS record at home is 2-2, and they have covered the spread in their last two games at home.
The Mavericks have won four straight games straight up and are 57-39 against the spread for the season. In the Western Conference, they are currently in 5th place and have a record of 50-32.
In their last game against the Timberwolves, the Mavericks won 109-108 as 6-point underdogs. The O/U line for that game was also 207.5 points, and the teams combined for 217 points.
Dallas has an O/U record of 44-52 this season, with the over hitting in their last three games. This year, their games have averaged 230.1 points per game compared to today’s O/U line of 207.5.
The Mavericks are averaging 117.9 points per game this season, which is 9th in the league. At home, they are 10th in the NBA, at 117.2 points per contest. Dallas is also 14th in pace, averaging 99.6 possessions per game. One reason for their high-scoring offense is that they are 4th in both three-point attempts and makes this season.
Luka Doncic is averaging 28.6 points per game over his last five games, to go along with 10.4 assists and 9.6 rebounds. Across these games, he hit 40.4% of his threes. Kyrie Irving has hit 41.7% of his threes in his last five games, but his scoring average is just 18.6 points per game. Derrick Jones Jr. has hit 56.2% of his shots from the field in his last five games.
When it comes to points allowed per game, the Mavericks are 17th in the league, giving up 113.9 points per contest. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 5th in the NBA at 104.2 points allowed per game.
So far this season, opposing teams have made 36.6% of their three-point attempts against Dallas, which is 16th in the league. However, on average, opponents have made 13.0 threes per game vs. the Mavericks, which is also 16th in the NBA.
One area where Dallas has been solid is inside the arc, as they are 8th in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 53.8%.
Despite being 2.5 point underdogs, we predict the Timberwolves to come out on top with a final score of 113-112.
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips
- We like the Timberwolves on the moneyline (+114)
- The Timberwolves are also our pick on the spread at +2.5
- Projecting a combined 225 points, we like the over
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
- Maxi Kleber – Shoulder – Out
- Luka Doncic – Knee/Ankle – Questionable
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper – Ankle – Out
Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
- Mike Conley – Soleus – Questionable
