Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Preview
At 7:30 ET, the Dallas Mavericks (-193) will host the Miami Heat (+159) in a non-conference matchup. The Mavericks are favored by 4.5 points and the over/under line is set at 231.5.
Both teams come into this game with losing streaks. The Mavericks have lost three in a row and are currently 8th in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Heat have lost two straight and are 6th in the East.
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Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Last season, the Heat and Mavericks did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Mavericks have the leg up at 2-1. The Mavericks also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 220 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
- In their last three road games, Miami has averaged 108 points per game while allowing 103. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
- When looking at their past three home matchups, Dallas has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 121 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
- In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Heat have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 5-0 in these scenarios.
- Spanning across their last three games as the betting favorite, the Mavericks have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Prediction
Miami’s O/U record this season is 24-37, and the over has hit in their last two games. Today’s O/U line is 231.5, and their games have averaged 220.7 points.
In Miami’s last game, they defeated the Pistons by a score of 118-110. The O/U line for that game was 217.5, and the Heat were favored by 11 points.
Against the spread, Miami is 29-29 this season, and they have lost their last two ATS. On the road, they are 17-11 ATS compared to 12-18 ATS at home.
The Heat are currently 6th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 35-26. In the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place. As the underdog, they are 10-16 straight-up and 14-12 vs. the spread.
Heading into tonight’s game, the Miami Heat are 27th in the NBA in scoring at 110.8 points per game. However, they have been better at home, averaging 113.7 points compared to 107.9 on the road.
So far this season, the Heat have outscored the NBA scoring average in just 36.1% of their games. In terms of pace, Miami is 29th in the league at 96.2 possessions per game.
When it comes to their shooting, the Heat are 23rd in field goal percentage at 46%. They have been better from three-point range, hitting 37% of their attempts, which is 7th in the NBA.
In the current season, the Heat defense has excelled, sitting 6th in the NBA by allowing 109.9 points per game. The Miami defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.3% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 47.2% of their field goal attempts vs. Miami.
Dallas is looking to end a three-game losing streak today against the Heat. In their most recent game, the Mavericks lost to the Pacers by a score of 137-120. The O/U line for that game was 247.5 points.
This season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 32-30, and their games have averaged a combined 237 points per game. In their last game, the combined scoring was 257 points, which was well above the O/U line.
For the season, the Mavericks are 32-30 against the spread, and they are 14-19 ATS at home. As the favorite, they are 21-15 ATS and have an average scoring margin of +5.2 points per game.
In the Western Conference standings, the Mavericks are currently in 8th place with a record of 34-28. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 21-18 and 8-5 against teams in their division.
On average, the Mavericks’ games have had an O/U line of 236.3 points, which is higher than today’s line of 231.5. This season, 44 of their games have had higher O/U lines than 231.5.
At home this season, the Mavericks are averaging 120.3 points per game, which is 8th in the NBA. Overall, they are 6th in scoring with 118.7 points per game.
When it comes to three-point shooting, Dallas is 2nd in the league in attempts at 40 per game. However, they are only 11th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%. In terms of pace, the Mavericks are 12th in the NBA.
So far, the Mavericks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 59.7% of their games this season. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 12th in the league at 48%.
At this time, the Mavericks’ defense is positioned 24th in the NBA, permitting 118.3 points per game. The Dallas defense has allowed opponents to shoot 37.0% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 48.5% of their field goal attempts vs. Dallas.
With a 4.5-point advantage on the spread, our projections favor the Mavericks to secure a 118-115 victory.
Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Betting Tips
- Take the Mavericks on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Heat (+4.5)
- Projecting a combined 233 points, we like the over
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
- Maxi Kleber – Knee – Probable
- Luka Doncic – Ankle – Probable
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Kevin Love – Heel – Out
- Josh Richardson – Shoulder – Out
- Tyler Herro – Foot – Out
