Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
From Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., the Nationals and Cardinals face off in an NL matchup. First pitch is at 4:05 PM ET, and the over/under line is at 9 runs. BSMW is carrying this game on TV.
The Nationals are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -130 compared to the Cardinals at +110. St. Louis will be looking to extend their two-game winning streak, and they are 2nd in the NL Central. The Nationals are 4th in the NL East and have a record of 41-47. Today’s starting pitching matchup features Lance Lynn for the Cardinals and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals.
Check out BetCoco for Washington Nationals – St. Louis Cardinals odds
Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats
- The Cardinals are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Nationals’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 1-4 (SU) with 1-4 against the spread.
- As the favorite, the Nationals are 6-4 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Cardinals have a 7-3 straight-up record and a 8-2 record vs. the runline.
It was a wild game in the most recent game of this Cardinals vs Nationals series. St. Louis went into the matchup as -159 favorites and squeaked out a 7-6 win. The Cardinals had to rally late, scoring one run in the 8th and another in the 9th to pick up the win.
Washington wasted a good outing from Patrick Corbin, as he gave up just three earned runs in five innings of work for the Nationals. Dylan Floro took the loss. Ryan Helsley got the win out of the bullpen for the Cardinals as Sonny Gray went five innings, giving up five earned runs.
Offensively, the Cardinals were led by Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado, as they were the only two Cardinals hitters to have more than one hit. Contreras, Arenado, and Nolan Gorman each had two RBIs.
Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis is 46-41 overall and is 5.0 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Cardinals have won two straight games, and they are 13-12 against other teams in the NL Central this season. The Cardinals took the first game of their series vs. the Nationals.
At home, the Cardinals are 24-18 this season, and they are just above .500 at 22-23 on the road. As the underdog, the Cardinals are 14-17 this season, and they are 24-19 when favored. St. Louis’ overall series record is 15-11-2, and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games overall.
When the Cardinals win, they tend to win big, as their average run margin in victories is +2.3. But when they lose, they lose by an average of -3.5 runs. The Cardinals are 44-43 against the run line this season, including a 28-16 mark as the underdog. They are 20-25 vs. the run line on the road, where their average run margin is -0.6 runs per game.
St. Louis has played 84 games this season, and the over/under line has been set at 9 runs for 12 of them. The over/under record for those games is 6-5-1. The Cardinals’ games have averaged 8.4 runs per game, and their overall over/under record is 39-45.
St. Louis is sending right-hander Lance Lynn to the mound today as he faces the Nationals on the road. So far this season, Lynn has made 17 starts and has a record of 4-3 with a 3.59 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Lynn has a WHIP of 1.30 and has allowed a total of 10 home runs. Lynn has made five quality starts this year and is coming off a game in which he didn’t allow a run. In that outing, he went six innings and gave up just two hits. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts.
So far this season, the Cardinals offense is averaging 4 runs per game, which is 25th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .241, which is 11th in the league, and their collective on-base percentage of .307 is 16th in the league. St. Louis has been one of the worst home run hitting teams in the league, and their isolated power (ISO) of .138 is 21st in the MLB.
Nolan Gorman is the Cardinals’ leader in home runs this season, but he is batting just .195. Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan are both near the top of the team’s home run and RBI standings, with Burleson batting .281 and Donovan hitting .263. Burleson has gone deep 13 times this season, which is 13th in the league.
With a record of 41-47, the Nationals are 4th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 17 games. Overall, they have gone 16-12 against other teams in the NL East. The Nationals have not been playing well of late, going 3-7 over their last 10 games. At home, they are 19-22 this year.
Washington has gone 22-25 on the road this season. So far, they have really struggled as the underdog, going 33-40, but they are 8-7 as the favorite. The Nationals’ overall series record is 11-15-2, and they are currently down 0-1 in this series vs. the Cardinals.
The Nationals have been a solid run line bet this season, going 51-37. They have been particularly good on the road, going 28-19. Their run line record at home is 23-18. They have covered the run line in three straight games and have been a better bet as the underdog, going 44-29.
When the Nationals play at home, the over/under line is set at an average of 8 runs per game. The over/under record for Washington is 41-43, and their games have averaged 8.5 runs per game. When the line is set at 9 runs, the over/under record is 4-6-2, and 18.2% of their games have had higher lines than that. Overall, 68.2% of their games have had lower lines than 9 runs.
Left-hander MacKenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of work. In that outing vs. the Mets, he finished with a no-decision. Looking back further, Gore has given up two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. For the season, he has a record of 6-7, an ERA of 3.47, and WHIP of 1.37. Opposing batters are hitting .254 off Gore this season. Out of his 17 starts, Gore has five quality starts and is averaging 10.62 strikeouts per nine innings.
Washington’s offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 20th in the league and is also 23rd in home runs. As a team, they are batting .236, which is 13th in the league. CJ Abrams has been the team’s top power threat so far, as his 13 homers are the best on the team and 13th in the league. Abrams is also batting .279 for the season.
Over his last seven games, Luis Garcia Jr. has been on fire, going 10/24 with three homers and seven RBIs. This has helped him move into the team’s 3rd spot in RBIs. Jesse Winker and Luis Garcia Jr. are both on three-game hitting streaks coming into the game.
Our prediction for today’s Cardinals vs. Nationals game is to take the Nationals on the money line at -130. We have the Nationals winning this one by a score of 6-4, giving us some room to take the Nationals on the run line if you prefer.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have MacKenzie Gore finishing with six strikeouts compared to Lance Lynn with six as well. Lynn is projected to finish with a lower ERA than Gore, but we still have Gore going 5-6 innings, which is right around his average.
Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips
- Take the Nationals on the moneyline
- The Nationals should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Out | Hamstring |
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow/Forearm |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
| Jose A. Ferrer | Out | Teres Major |
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Tommy Edman | Out | Wrist |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Iván Herrera | Out | Back |
| Riley O’Brien | Out | Forearm |
| Lars Nootbaar | Out | Oblique |
