Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line today, as they are at -219 compared to the Nationals at +184. This NL East matchup has a first pitch of 4:05 PM ET from Nationals Park in Washington, DC. MASN will be televising this one.
Philadelphia is 94-66 and is starting Zack Wheeler, while the Nationals are 70-90 and will go with MacKenzie Gore. This game will be played under the lights, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
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Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats
- The Phillies are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- In the Nationals’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 1-4 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- The Phillies have a 5-5 straight-up record in their last ten games as the favorite, and 4-6 against the runline.
- As the underdog, the Nationals have gone 5-5 vs. the runline and 6-4 straight-up.
Washington cruised to a 9-1 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a huge 1st inning, scoring four of their nine runs. As for the Phillies, they scored their only run in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Nationals were the +155 underdogs.
Trevor Williams only went five innings for the Nationals but didn’t give up a run and finished with five strikeouts. He picked up a win in the game, while Ranger Suarez got the loss for the Phillies, going just two innings and giving up six runs.
Austin Hays was the only Phillies hitter to have more than one hit, going 2/3 with a home run. Stone Garrett had a big game for the Nationals, going 3/4 with a homer.
Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
With a record of 94-66, the Phillies lead the Mets by six games for the NL East lead. The Phillies are on the road today, taking on the Nationals, and they lost the first game of the series. In the NL East, the Phillies have gone 28-22 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Phillies have been great this year, going 54-27. On the road, they are just above .500 at 40-39. As the favorite, the Phillies are 81-48 this year, and they are 13-18 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, the Phillies have dropped three straight on the road.
The Phillies have been a strong bet on the run line this season, going 77-83 overall. They have been a better bet on the road than at home, going 40-39 on the run line away from Philadelphia. Their average run margin for the season is +0.7 runs per game, and they have a +0.3 run differential on the road.
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the Washington Nationals. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 9.0 runs. Their over/under record on the season is 76-75, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 15-16. Overall, 71.9% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, while only 8.8% have had lower lines. The over has hit in each of their last three games.
Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Nationals on the road. Wheeler has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 16-7 with a 2.56 ERA. Coming into the game, he has a WHIP of .96 and has turned in 25 quality starts. Wheeler’s ERA at home is 2.56, compared to 3.43 on the road. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Wheeler has been excellent recently, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six straight outings.
Philadelphia comes into the game with the 4th best scoring offense in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. At home, they are even better, putting up 5.1 runs per game. The Phillies have been one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams this season and are also among the league leaders in team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Kyle Schwarber has been the Phillies’ top power threat this season, as his 38 home runs are the 6th most in the league. However, he is batting just .249 for the season and has hit just .216 over his last nine games. Nick Castellanos has been hot of late, hitting .438 over his last nine games, and he is also on an eight-game hitting streak.
With an overall record of 70-90, the Nationals are 4th in the NL East, 24 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone 24-26 in divisional games. The Nationals have taken the first game of this series vs. the Phillies and are looking to bounce back after going just 2-8 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Nationals are 37-42 this year compared to a 33-48 mark on the road. So far, they have really struggled as the underdog, going 55-77 but have been better as the favorite at 15-13. This season, the Nationals’ series record is 19-25-6, and they have dropped three straight series.
When betting the run line on the Nationals, it’s been more profitable to take them as the underdog. They have a run line record of 75-57 when getting the runs, compared to 13-15 when giving them. Their average run differential in wins is +3.4, while it’s -3.8 in losses.
The Washington Nationals are playing at home against the Philadelphia Phillies today. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Nationals games this season is 8.8 runs. The Nationals have a 75-79 over/under record this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the Nationals have a 17-12 over/under record. The over has hit in two straight Nationals games.
Washington is sending MacKenzie Gore to the mound today vs. the Phillies, and he will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. In that September 21st start vs. the Cubs, Gore went seven innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking back over his last three outings, he has allowed just one earned run in two of them. Gore’s record for the season is 10-12, and he has an ERA of 4.04. Opponents are batting .253 off the left-hander this season. For the year, he has made 31 starts, 10 of which were quality starts.
So far this season, the Nationals are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 25th in the league. They have been a little better in terms of batting average, as their team mark of .242 is 10th in the MLB. Collectively, the Nationals are one of the top teams in the league in terms of not striking out, but they have been one of the worst teams in the league in terms of drawing walks.
Luis Garcia Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 68 RBIs, and he is also 2nd on the team with 17 homers. CJ Abrams has the most homers for the Nationals this season, but he is batting just .246. Over his last eight games, Joey Gallo is hitting just .217 with two homers.
Our predictions for this Phillies vs. Nationals matchup are that the Nationals will pick up a 5-4 win at home. With the Nationals being the underdogs, you can get them at +184 on the money line, and this would be our recommended bet.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Zack Wheeler does have a better chance of picking up a win compared to MacKenzie Gore. However, Wheeler’s strikeout numbers aren’t great, and we have him finishing with six K’s compared to Gore with seven.
Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips
- We like the Nationals on the moneyline (+184)
- The Nationals are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | Out | Foot/Ankle |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Joan Adon | Out | Shoulder/Biceps |
| Andrés Chaparro | Out | Personal |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| Rodolfo Castro | Out | Thumb |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
