Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Preview
From Nationals Park in Washington, we have the Mets and Nationals facing off in an NL East matchup. The Nationals are looking to snap a two-game losing streak and are 39-45 overall, while the Mets are 3rd in the NL East with a record of 41-41.
Sean Manaea will be starting for the Mets, and he is facing off against DJ Herz. The Nationals are the slight underdog on the money line (+117), while the Mets are favored (-137). The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and MASN will be televising this one.
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Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats
- The Mets are 3-2 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
- On the opposing side, the Nationals have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 1-4 record in their last five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Mets have a straight-up record of 6-4 and a runline record of 4-6.
- As the underdog, the Nationals have gone 4-6 vs. the runline and 6-4 straight-up.
The most recent game o of this Mets and Nationals series came right down to the end, as the Mets rallied late for six runs in the 10th inning to pick up a 9-7 win. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -119 on the money line.
New York’s offense got off to a fast start in the game, scoring two runs in the first and adding three more in the 2nd. However, they went silent until breaking out for six run in the top of the 10th. On the other side, the Nationals got on the board with two runs in the 3rd and tied the game with a run in the 8th. They scored their final two runs in the bottom of the 8th.
David Peterson started for the Mets and went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs and striking out two. He left the game with a lead, but Jake Diekman got the win out of the bullpen. Hunter Harvey took the loss for Washington out of the bullpen.
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction
The Mets are looking to move above .500 today, as they enter the game with a record of 41-41. In the NL East, they are 13 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone 12-10 against other teams in the NL East.
New York has won two straight road games, and they are 20-16 on the road this year. At home, the Mets are 21-25. So far, they have been favored in 43 games, and they are 22-21 in those games. As the road favorite, the Mets are 7-6 this year.
When the Mets are on the road, they have been a good bet against the run line, going 22-14. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have an average run margin of 0.6 on the road. They have a run line record of 39-43 overall and are currently averaging a run margin of 0.1 runs per game.
The Mets have been on a roll with the over, as they have hit the over in six straight games. Their games have averaged 9.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 44-36. The over/under line for today’s game against the Nationals is set at 9 runs, which is slightly higher than their season average of 8 runs per game. So far this season, only 11% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher.
Left-hander Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Nationals on the road. He has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.30. In his 15 appearances, he has turned in three quality starts. Manaea’s most recent outing was a good one, as he didn’t allow a run in five innings of work against the Yankees. He picked up the win in that outing. Before that, he had allowed at least one homer in three straight starts.
As a team, the Mets are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in home runs and are batting a collective .250, which is 9th in the league. Their team on-base percentage of .323 is 5th in the MLB.
Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos have been swinging the bat well of late, with each of them hitting four homers over their last nine games. Nimmo is 10/34 in that stretch, while Vientos is 9/35. Pete Alonso is also on a five-game hitting streak and leads the team with 17 homers.
Washington is 39-45 overall, putting them 4th in the NL East, 16 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone 14-11 in divisional matchups. The Nationals have dropped two straight games, and they are 3-7 across their last ten.
At home, the Nationals are 17-20 this season compared to 22-25 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 31-38 this year, and they are 8-7 when favored. The Nationals’ overall series record is 11-14-1, and they have dropped two straight series.
Washington has been a solid play on the run line this season, going 48-36 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, where they are 28-19 compared to 20-17 at home. The Nationals have been a better bet as an underdog, going 41-28 against the run line in those games.
Washington’s games have gone over the line in 39 of 81 games this season, and the over/under line for today’s game is 9. The Nationals have played in 16 games with a higher line than 9, which is 19.0% of their games. Their games have averaged 8.5 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 39-42 on the year. When the line is set at 9 runs, the over/under record is 2-5-1.
Getting the start for the Nationals is DJ Herz, who will be making his 3rd start of the season. He started the year with a win against the Marlins, striking out 13 in 6 innings. In his last start, he took a loss vs. the Padres, going 3 1/3 and giving up 4 runs.
So far this season, the Nationals offense has been one of the league’s worst home run hitting teams, and they are also near the bottom of the league in terms of isolated power. As a team, they are batting .236, which is 16th in the league, and are averaging 4.1 runs per game. Washington’s team on-base percentage of .304 is also below the league average.
Over his last five games, CJ Abrams has gone 4/13 with a home run and two RBIs. Abrams is the Nationals’ leader in home runs and is batting .284 for the season. Joey Meneses has driven in the most runs for the Nationals this season and is currently on a three-game hitting streak.
With the Nationals currently sitting at +117 on the money line, we see this as a great value pick. Our predicted score is 6-5 in favor of the Nationals, meaning you could also look to take the over, as the line is currently sitting at 9 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have DJ Herz finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Sean Manaea with five. Herz is currently second in our starting pitcher rankings in terms of Ks, and we have Manaea at 14th.
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- Take the Mets on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Nationals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Out | Hamstring |
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow/Forearm |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
| Jose A. Ferrer | Out | Teres Major |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Nimmo | Questionable | Head |
| Edwin Díaz | Out | Suspension |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
