Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Preview
At 6:45 PM ET, the Mets and Nationals face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, DC, and the Nationals are the slight favorite on the money line (-107). The money line odds for a Mets win are sitting at -111, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.
New York is 40-41 this season, while the Nationals come in with a record of 39-44. MacKenzie Gore is starting for the Nationals, and he is facing off against David Peterson for the Mets. SNY will be televising this one.
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Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Mets in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- The Nationals, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 1-4 (SU) and 1-4 record.
- In their previous ten games, the Mets have recorded a 6-4 record as the favorite, while they have a 8-2 record as the underdog.
- The Nationals hold a 6-4 record as the favorite and a 5-5 record as the underdog.
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction
New York is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 10-5 loss to the Astros, Brandon Nimmo went 3/4 with a homer and three RBIs. The Mets also got a good start from Luis Severino, going seven innings and giving up just three runs on eight hits. However, they couldn’t close things out, and Matt Festa took the loss out of the bullpen.
Severino was especially good early on, as the Mets’s offense scored their only run in the 2nd inning. However, the Astros answered with a run of their own in the 2nd and added another two in the 4th to take the lead. New York’s offense scored their final two runs in the 6th.
The Mets are 40-41 overall and trail the Phillies by 13.5 games in the NL East. This season, they are 11-10 in divisional games and kick off their series vs. the Nationals two games below .500 on the road. New York lost the final two games of their series vs. the Astros.
At home, the Mets are 21-25 this season and 19-16 on the road. As the road favorite, the Mets are 6-6 this season, and they are an even 21-21 as the favorite overall. New York’s series record is 12-13-3, and they have won three straight series on the road.
The Mets have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 21-14. Their average run margin on the road is +0.6 runs per game. They have been a better run line bet as the underdog, going 24-15. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.5 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.2 runs per game.
Today’s over/under line for the Mets-Nationals game is set at 8 runs. The Mets have seen their games average a combined 9.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 43-36. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs this season, the over has hit in 9 of their 13 games. Overall, 45.7% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher, and their current over streak stands at 5 games.
David Peterson and the Mets are on the road to take on the Nationals. Peterson has picked up wins in each of his first two starts, and he has been able to go at least 6 innings in both outings. He’s coming off a start against the Yankees in which he struck out 8 over 4 1/3 innings.
As a team, the Mets are 6th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.7 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 4th best home run hitting team in the league. New York also does a good job of making contact, as they have the 6th fewest strikeouts in the league.
Brandon Nimmo has been swinging a hot bat for the Mets, hitting .300 over his last eight games with four homers and 10 RBIs. Francisco Lindor has also been hitting well of late, going 12/37 in his last eight games. For the season, Lindor is batting .248 with 13 homers, which is 2nd on the team. Pete Alonso is the team’s top power threat, as his 17 homers are the best on the team and 9th in the league.
The Nationals will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rays with a 5-0 loss. Washington was the +163 underdog on the money line going into this matchup. Things really got away from the Nationals in the 2nd inning, as the Rays scored three runs in the inning. Washington’s offense didn’t score their first run until the 4th.
Patrick Corbin had a rough outing, giving up four earned runs on eight hits and issuing three walks. He also hit a batter and took the loss. The Nationals were hoping Corbin could go deep into thejson game, but he only lasted six innings.
Washington is 39-44 overall and trail the Phillies by 15.5 games in the NL East. Heading into today’s game vs. the Mets, they are 4th in the division, two games behind the Mets. The Nationals went 2-1 in their series vs. the Rays but are just 3-7 across their last 10 games.
At home, the Nationals are 17-19 this season and 22-25 on the road. So far, they have really struggled as the underdog, going 31-37. As for their series record, they are 11-14-1 and have dropped two straight series.
The Nationals have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 48-35 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 28-19 against the run line. They have been an underdog in most games this season, going 41-27 against the run line in those contests. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.4, while it’s -3.4 in losing games.
Washington has been a high-scoring team this season, with a combined run average of 8.4 runs per game. Their over/under record is 38-42, and when the line is set at 8 runs, they are 5-6-1. Overall, 59.0% of their games have had over/under lines set above 8 runs, and the average line for their games is exactly 8 runs.
Left-hander MacKenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals today vs. the Mets. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 6-7 with a 3.60 ERA. Gore’s WHIP for the season is 1.39, and opponents are batting .256 off him this year. In his last outing, Gore took the loss, giving up five earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Gore has a total of five quality starts this year and is averaging 10.48 strikeouts per nine innings.
Over his last nine games, CJ Abrams has been on fire for the Nationals, going 15/32 with two homers and six RBIs. For the season, he is batting .283 and leads the team with 42 RBIs. Abrams also has a team-high 13 homers. Jesse Winker has also been a solid power threat for the Nationals, as he has gone deep nine times this season, which is 2nd on the team. Winker is batting .256 for the season.
As a team, the Nationals are 20th in the league in scoring at 4.1 runs per game. Overall, they are batting just .235 and have the league’s 20th home run total. Washington’s offense has been pretty consistent, as they are averaging 4.1 runs per game both at home and on the road.
Our predicted final score for this one is 6-5 in favor of the Nationals, and with the Nationals sitting at -107 on the money line, that is the route we recommend taking. Offensively, we have the Nationals finishing with nine hits compared to the Mets with nine.
Looking at the starting pitchers, MacKenzie Gore is projected to finish with six strikeouts compared to David Peterson with five. Gore is also projected to go just 4 2/3 innings, with Peterson finishing with a predicted line of 5 1/3 innings.
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- Take the Mets on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Nationals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Out | Hamstring |
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow/Forearm |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
| Jose A. Ferrer | Out | Teres Major |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | Out | Knee |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Edwin Díaz | Out | Suspension |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
