Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Preview
At 4:05 PM ET, the Mets and Nationals face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, DC, and the Mets are favored on the money line (-142). The Nationals are 27-33 overall, while the Mets are 26-35.
Luis Severino is starting for the Mets, while the Nationals have Patrick Corbin on the mound. SNY is carrying this game on TV, and the over/under line is currently 9.5 runs. New York is on a two-game winning streak, while the Nationals have lost two in a row.
Check out BetCoco for Washington Nationals – New York Mets odds
Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats
- The Mets are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Nationals have gone 3-2 (SU) and 4-1 in their previous five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Mets have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a runline record of 2-8.
- Over their last ten games as the underdog, the Nationals have gone 3-7 vs. the runline and 7-3 straight-up.
New York picked up a 6-3 road win over the Nationals in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a two-run 4th inning and then broke the game open with three more runs in the 5th. As for the Nationals, they scored their only three runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -142 on the money line.
David Peterson started for the Mets and picked up the win, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. He finished the game with just two strikeouts and allowed two walks. DJ Herz got the start for the Nationals and took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work.
Harrison Bader and Pete Alonso each homered for the Mets, while Jacob Young went 3/3 with two RBIs for the Nationals. Starling Marte also had a two RBI game at the plate for New York.
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction
The Mets are 26-35 overall, putting them 4th in the NL East, 16.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. New York has gone 7-8 against other teams in the NL East. They have won two straight games, and their two most recent wins have them up 2-0 in the series vs. the Nationals.
At home, the Mets are just 13-21 this year, but they have been better on the road, coming in with a mark of 13-14. So far, they have gone 4-4 as the road favorite and 12-19 as the underdog overall. New York’s series record is 6-11-3 this year, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
The Mets have been a strong bet against the run line on the road, going 16-11 this season. They have covered the run line in two straight road games and have a run line record of 27-34 overall. They are 11-23 against the run line at home and have an average run margin of -0.6 runs per game.
Despite the Mets’ combined run average of 9.2, their over/under record is just 32-27 this season. Their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs, but when the line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over has hit in all four games. The Mets have had just one game this season with an over/under line of 9.5 runs, accounting for only 1.6% of their games.
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Nationals on the road. So far, he has made 11 starts and has a record of 3-2 with an ERA of 3.52. Opponents are batting .198 off Severino this year, and he has a total of four quality starts. In his most recent outing, Severino picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had three straight outings in which he didn’t give up more than two earned runs. Severino has finished with a no-decision in three straight starts.
So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. They have been a much better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per game. As a team, the Mets are batting .240, which is 10th in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in home runs. Pete Alonso is 6th in the league with 14 homers, and he is also the team’s leader in RBIs (31).
Alonso has also gone deep twice in his last five games, but he is batting just .261 over that stretch. Mark Vientos has been hot of late, going 8/18 in his last five games with two homers. Brandon Nimmo and Alonso are both on three-game hitting streaks, while J.D. Martinez has a nine-game streak coming into the game.
Washington is looking to avoid losing three straight games today, as they have dropped the first two games of their series vs. the Mets. Currently, the Nationals are 3rd in the NL East, 15 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, they are 27-33 and have gone 8-8 in divisional matchups this year.
At home, the Nationals are 10-15 this season compared to 17-18 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 24-30 this year and 3-3 when favored. The Nationals have an overall series record of 7-11-1 this season, and they are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
The Nationals have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 36-24 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 23-12. As the underdog, they are 33-21 on the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.4, while it’s -3.3 in losing games.
Washington Nationals games have averaged 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 26-31. When the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, the Nationals are 3-3. Only 5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs, with the average line for their games being set at 8 runs. Today’s over/under line is set at 9.5 runs.
Left-hander Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Mets at home. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 1-6 with a 5.83 ERA. Corbin’s WHIP for the season is 1.67, and opponents are batting .302 off him this year. Corbin has turned in just three quality starts this season and is coming off a rough outing against the Guardians, where he gave up two earned runs in six innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three homers. Corbin has lost each of his last three starts.
Washington’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 4 runs per game, which is 22nd in the MLB. Their team batting average of .231 is also just 16th in the league. The Nationals are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and OPS.
Joey Meneses is the Nationals’ top run producer this season, as his 30 RBIs are the best on the team. He is also tied for the team lead in home runs, but his batting average of .236 is just 8th on the team. CJ Abrams has been a bright spot in the lineup, as he is hitting .249 with a team-high 9 homers. Over his last seven games, Joey Gallo has gone 5/17 with a home run and three RBIs.
We see the Nationals coming away with a 5-4 win over the Mets in this one, and with the Nationals at +121 on the money line, they are our recommended pick. Looking at the starting pitchers, Patrick Corbin has a better chance of picking up a win than Luis Severino and is projected to finish with five strikeouts compared to Severino at six.
Offensively, the Mets are projected to finish with nine hits compared to the Nationals at eight. However, the Mets are projected to finish with more home runs than the Nationals, but we are sticking with the Nationals to pick up the win.
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- We like the Nationals on the moneyline (+121)
- The Nationals are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow/Forearm |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
| Jose A. Ferrer | Out | Teres Major |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Edwin Díaz | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Out | Thumb |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
