Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
At 1:35 PM ET, the Brewers and Nationals square off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at Nationals Park in Washington, DC, and the Brewers are the favorites on the money line (-136). The Nationals have a money line odds of +116, and the over/under line is at 9 runs.
Milwaukee leads the NL Central with a record of 62-48, while the Nationals are 4th in the NL East at 50-61. Tobias Myers is starting for the Brewers, and he will be facing off against Mitchell Parker. BSWI is carrying this game on TV.
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Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- The Brewers are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Nationals have achieved a 1-4 (SU) record and 4-1 record in their last five home games.
- Looking back on their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers are 5-5 straight-up and 4-6 vs. the runline.
- As the underdog, the Nationals have gone 5-5 vs. the runline and 6-4 straight-up.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Nationals vs Brewers series. Washington went into the matchup as +101 underdogs and squeaked out a 6-4 win. The Nationals had a big 1st inning, scoring four of their six runs. As for the Brewers, they scored their first run in the 5th and added three more in the 8th.
Milwaukee actually outhit the Nationals in the game 10 to 7. Rhys Hoskins went 1/4 with a home run, while Jackson Chourio also had two hits and drove in a run for the Brewers. Luis Garcia Jr. had a three-hit game for Washington.
DJ Herz only went five innings for the Nationals but didn’t give up a run and got the win. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued a walk. Kyle Finnegan got the save. Aaron Civale had a rough outing for the Brewers, taking the loss.
Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is on the road today vs. the Nationals with a record of 62-48, which has them leading the NL Central. The Brewers are 5.5 games ahead of the Cardinals for the division lead. So far, they have gone 23-13 in divisional matchups.
The Brewers have an overall record of 31-21 at home this year, and they are 31-27 on the road. As the favorite, Milwaukee has gone 36-26 and 26-22 as the underdog. Looking at how they have performed in their series, the Brewers are 19-13-3 and have dropped two straight series.
When betting the run line with the Milwaukee Brewers, it’s been more profitable to take them as the underdog, as they are 32-16 against the run line in that scenario compared to 25-37 when they are the favorite. Their overall run line record is 57-53, and their average run margin for the season is +0.7 runs per game.
When the Milwaukee Brewers are on the road, the over/under line is set at 9 runs. The Brewers have a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 60-45. Their games have an average over/under line of 8 runs, and when the line is set at 9 runs, their record is 5-5-2. Overall, 10.0% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, and their over streak is at 3 games.
Milwaukee is sending right-hander Tobias Myers to the mound today vs. the Nationals. He has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 6-4 with a 3.10 ERA. Myers most recently faced the Marlins on July 28th, where he finished with a no-decision. In that outing, he went four innings and gave up one earned run on three hits. Myers has turned in a quality start in five of his outings this year. Looking back at his last four starts, he has alternated between a win and a loss.
Heading into today’s game, the Brewers offense is averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They are also among the league leaders in team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s offense has been even better at home this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. The team’s collective batting average is .254, and they have the league’s 2nd best on-base percentage.
Rhys Hoskins is batting just .220 for the season but has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/32 with four homers over his last nine games. Hoskins’ 19 homers is the top mark on the team and 14th in the league. Willy Adames is also among the league leaders in homers, as he has 17 long balls this season. William Contreras comes into the game with a batting average of .281 and 12 homers.
Washington is 50-61 overall, and they are 15.5 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. So far, they have gone 16-15 in divisional games. The Nationals are at home today, where they are 24-28 this season. On the road, Washington has gone 26-33.
The Nationals have dropped seven of their last ten games and are 1-1 in this series vs. the Brewers. This season, the Nationals are 10-9 as the favorite and 40-52 as the underdog. As the home underdog, Washington is 18-22 this year.
Washington has been a solid run line bet this season, going 63-48 overall. They have been especially good on the road, going 35-24 against the run line. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 54-38 against the run line in those games. They have been outscored by an average of 0.5 runs per game this season.
Washington’s over/under record this season is 56-51, and the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. When the line is set at 9 runs, their record is 10-9-2. The over has hit in 18% of their games this season when the line is set at 9 runs. They have hit the over in five straight games.
Left-hander Mitchell Parker gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Brewers at home. He has made 19 starts this year and has a record of 5-6 with an ERA of 4.31. Parker’s WHIP for the season is 1.21, and opponents are batting .241 off him this year. In his 19 starts, Parker has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 7.53 strikeouts per nine innings. Most recently, he finished with a no-decision vs. the Diamondbacks, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least five earned runs in three straight starts.
Over his last six games, Luis Garcia Jr. has gone 10/24 with one home run and four RBIs. For the season, he is 2nd on the Nationals with 52 RBIs and is batting .287. CJ Abrams is the team’s top home run hitter and has 54 RBIs, but he has struggled of late, going just 5/30 in his last seven games.
As a team, the Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. They are also the worst home run hitting team in the league and have the 24th slugging percentage in the league. Overall, they are batting .242, which is 13th in the league.
The best bet we see for today’s Brewers vs. Nationals game is to take the Nationals on the money line at +116. With this payout, we see this as a great value pick, as our model has the Nationals winning this one 6-5.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Tobias Myers lasting nine innings, but his strikeout numbers are not great, as we have him finishing with five K’s. As for Mitchell Parker, he is projected to go six innings and finish with five strikeouts.
Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- The Nationals are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Out | Hamstring |
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Jordan Weems | Out | Shin |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Bryan Hudson | Out | Oblique |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Trevor Megill | Out | Back |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
