Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Preview
From Nationals Park in Washington, DC, the Marlins and Nationals face off in an NL East matchup. First pitch is at 4:05 PM ET, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures near 80 degrees. BSFL is carrying this game on TV.
The Nationals are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -146 compared to the Marlins at +124. Saturday’s pitching matchup is Valente Bellozo for the Marlins and Patrick Corbin for the Nationals. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and the under is paying out at +100 compared to -121 for the over.
Check out BetCoco for Washington Nationals – Miami Marlins odds
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- The Marlins are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- The Nationals, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Nationals have a record of 5-5 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
- The Marlins have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Washington picked up a 4-1 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a two-run 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up two more in the 7th. As for the Marlins, they scored their only run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Nationals were favored at -142 on the money line.
DJ Herz only went five innings for the Nationals but gave up just one run and one hit. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued a costly home run. Edward Cabrera put together a good outing for the Marlins, giving up just one hit and no earned runs across six innings of work.
Luis Garcia Jr. was the difference for the Nationals’ offense, as he homered and scored three times. Garcia finished the game with two RBIs. As for the Marlins, Otto Lopez hit a home run, while Xavier Edwards went 2/4.
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 55-93, which has them 33.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they are 17-30 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins are looking to pick up a win today, as they have dropped 6 of their last 9 games overall.
At home, the Marlins are just 28-47 this year compared to 27-46 on the road. As the underdog, Miami is 51-79 this year, and they are only 4-14 when favored. Miami’s overall series record is 11-26-9, and they are currently tied in this series vs. the Nationals.
Despite a run differential of -1.3 runs per game, the Marlins have a run line record of 69-79 this season. They have been a better bet on the run line on the road, where they are 37-36 compared to 32-43 at home. Miami has been a run line underdog in 130 of their 132 games, going 67-63 in those contests.
The Miami Marlins are on the road today against the Washington Nationals. The O/U line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Marlins and their opponents have combined to average 8.9 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 79-64. When the O/U line has been set at 8.5 runs this season, the O/U record is 28-23. Overall, 18.9% of their games have had O/U lines set at 8.5 runs, while 46.6% of their games have had lower O/U lines.
Right-hander Valente Bellozo gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Nationals on the road. Bellozo has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 2-3 with a 3.57 ERA. In his 10 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 5.94 strikeouts per nine innings. Bellozo’s most recent outing came against the Pirates, where he took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run. Before that, he had given up at least five earned runs in two straight outings. The right-hander has struggled with the long ball, giving up 10 homers and 10 walks per nine innings.
For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .241 and have the 25th ranked home run total in the league. Miami’s team on-base percentage of .297 is also among the worst in the league.
Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez have been the Marlins’ top power threats this season, with Burger leading the team with 25 homers and Sánchez right behind him at 17. Burger is also the team’s leader in RBIs, with 61. Sánchez comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak. Otto Lopez has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 12/36 in his last nine games.
Washington is 66-81 overall and trails the Phillies by 22 games in the NL East. So far, they have gone 21-23 in divisional games. The Nationals are at home today, where they are 34-39 this year. They have gone 32-42 on the road.
The Nationals have been the favorite in 26 of their games this year, going 13-13 in those games. As the underdog, Washington is 53-68 this year. They are also 17-23-6 in series this year, with their overall series record being 17-23-6. Heading into game three vs. the Marlins, the Nationals’ series record is 1-1.
Washington has been a solid team to bet on the run line this season, as they are 82-65 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 43-31 against the run line. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 70-51 against the run line. Their average run differential is -0.6 runs per game, but in their wins, it jumps to +3.3 runs per game.
The Washington Nationals are playing at home against the Miami Marlins today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. This season, the Nationals have played 58 games with over/under lines higher than 8.5 runs, which accounts for 39.5% of their games. Their games have had an average combined run total of 9.0 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 70-71.
Left-hander Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals today vs. the Marlins and comes into the game with a record of 5-13 and an ERA of 5.60. Corbin has made 29 starts this year and has pitched well at home, coming in with a record of 3-5 and an ERA of 4.73. In his last outing, Corbin took the loss, giving up seven earned runs in six innings of work vs. the Pirates. Before that, he had won three straight starts. One of those wins came vs. the Marlins on September 3rd, where he gave up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.
The Nationals offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have also struggled in the power department, as their 122 home runs are 26th in the MLB. As a team, they are batting .244, and their collective on-base percentage of .311 is 13th in the league.
CJ Abrams is the Nationals’ leader in home runs this season, but he is hitting just .239 overall and has gone 5/23 in his last six games. Luis Garcia Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 64 RBIs and is batting .282 for the season. Over his last seven games, Jose Tena is hitting .333.
Our predicted score for this Marlins vs. Nationals matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Marlins. So, we are recommending that you take the Marlins on the money line, where they are currently sitting at +124.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Valente Bellozo finishing with six strikeouts, which is good for 12th among starters. As for Patrick Corbin, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which is the sixth lowest among starters.
Offensively, the Marlins are projected to finish with nine team strikeouts, which is the seventh most in the league today. However, their four home runs are the fourth lowest. For the Nationals, they are projected to finish with eight strikeouts, which is the sixth lowest.
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- We like the Marlins on the moneyline (+124)
- The Marlins are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Alex Call | Out | Foot/Ankle |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Joan Adon | Out | Shoulder/Biceps |
| CJ Abrams | Questionable | Shoulder |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Derek Hill | Out | Shoulder |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Vidal Bruján | Out | Shoulder |
| José Devers | Questionable | Hand |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Max Meyer | Out | Shoulder |
| John McMillon | Out | Elbow |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Calvin Faucher | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Nardi | Out | Elbow |
