Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Preview
The over/under line for Friday’s Marlins vs. Nationals matchup is sitting at 8 runs, with Washington being favored on the money line (-148). Miami has a money line payout of +125, and the first pitch from Nationals Park is set for 6:45 PM ET.
Edward Cabrera is starting for the Marlins, and he is facing off against DJ Herz. Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 55-92, while the Nationals are 4th at 65-81.
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Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Marlins in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- In the Nationals’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Nationals have won 5-5 straight-up, and have a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.
Miami picked up a 6-3 road win over the Nationals in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins offense got off to a fast start, scoring two runs in the first and adding three more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Nationals got on the board with three runs in the 3rd and didn’t score another run the rest of the game.
Darren McCaughan started for the Marlins and picked up the win, going five innings and giving up three earned runs. Anthony Bender got the save. Mitchell Parker only went 6 1/3 innings for the Nationals but didn’t give up a run and took the loss.
Jake Burger went 3/4 with two RBIs to lead the Marlins offense. Xavier Edwards also had a two-hit game and scored a run for Miami. Jonah Bride drove in two runs while going 1/4.
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 55-92, putting them 33.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 17-29 in divisional matchups. The Marlins are coming off a series loss to the Pirates but have taken the first game of this series vs. the Nationals.
At home, the Marlins are 28-47 this year, and they are just under .500 at 27-45 on the road. As the underdog, Miami is 51-78 compared to 4-14 when favored. This season, the Marlins’ overall record as the underdog is 51-78. They have an overall series record of 11-26-9 this year.
When betting the run line on the Marlins this season, it’s been a better move to take them as the underdog. They are 67-62 against the run line in those games, compared to 2-16 when they are the favorite. Miami’s overall run line record is 69-78, and the average run margin in their wins is +2.8, while it’s -3.8 in their losses.
When the Marlins are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. This season, the average combined run total in their games is 9.0 runs. Miami’s over/under record for the season is 79-63, and when the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 17-11-2. Overall, 53.7% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Miami is sending right-hander Edward Cabrera to the mound today vs. the Nationals. He has made 17 starts this season and has a record of 4-6 with a 4.88 ERA. Cabrera’s WHIP for the season is 1.40, and opponents are batting .223 off him this year. In his 17 starts, he has turned in four quality starts. Cabrera’s last outing came on September 8th, where he picked up the win, going seven innings and not allowing a run. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.76 strikeouts and 4.66 walks.
For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .241, which is 14th in the league, but their on-base percentage of .297 is 23rd in the league.
Jake Burger has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 25 homers is 1st on the team and 15th in the league. Burger also leads the Marlins with 61 RBIs. Over his last seven games, Connor Norby has three homers but is batting just .214. Otto Lopez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/32 in his last eight games.
Washington is 65-81 overall, putting them 4th in the NL East. Currently, they trail the Phillies by 23 games in the division. So far, they have gone 20-23 in divisional play. The Nationals are coming off a series loss to the Pirates and are 4-6 across their last 10 games.
At home, the Nationals are 33-39 this season, and they are 32-42 on the road. So far, they have been favored 25 times, going 12-13 in those games. As for their time as the underdog, they are 53-68.
Washington has been a solid run-line team this season, going 81-65 overall. They have been even better on the road, going 43-31, but have struggled at home, going 38-34. They have been a better run-line bet as an underdog, going 70-51, compared to just 11-14 as the favorite. Their average run differential is -0.6 runs per game, and they have gone under the run line in two straight games.
Washington’s games have averaged 9.0 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 70-70. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, they have gone 10-9-1. In 67.8% of their games, the over/under line has been set higher than 8 runs.
Washington is starting DJ Herz today vs. the Marlins, and he comes into the game with a record of 3-7 and an ERA of 3.82. Herz has made 16 starts this year and has pitched well at home, coming in with a record of 2-5 and an ERA of 4.43. In his last outing, Herz picked up the win, going five innings and not giving up a run vs. the Pirates. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings. Herz has a WHIP of 1.22 this season.
So far this season, the Nationals offense has been pretty average in terms of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. However, they have been one of the league’s worst home run-hitting teams, and their collective isolated power figure of .134 is 24th in the league. As a team, they are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. Washington’s offense has been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.3 runs per game.
Shortstop CJ Abrams comes into the game as the Nationals’ leader in home runs (20) and RBIs (65) this season. Abrams has two homers in his last five games and is hitting .239 for the season. Luis Garcia Jr. is batting .281 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 63 RBIs.
Our prediction for this Nationals vs. Marlins matchup is that the Nationals will pick up a 5-4 win at home. With the Nationals picking up the win, we would recommend taking them on the money line, where the payout is -148.
Looking at the starting pitcher’s projections, DJ Herz is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is the sixth best among starters today. As for Edward Cabrera, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is 10th best.
Offensively, the Nationals are projected to finish with nine hits, while the Marlins are projected to finish with eight. However, the Marlins are projected to finish with just four runs, compared to the Nationals with five.
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Nationals on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Alex Call | Out | Foot/Ankle |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Joan Adon | Out | Shoulder/Biceps |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Derek Hill | Out | Shoulder |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Vidal Bruján | Out | Shoulder |
| José Devers | Questionable | Hand |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Max Meyer | Out | Shoulder |
| John McMillon | Out | Elbow |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Calvin Faucher | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Nardi | Out | Elbow |
