Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Betting Tips 9/14/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview

From the Rogers Centre in Toronto, we have the Cardinals and Blue Jays facing off in an interleague matchup. First pitch is set for 3:07 PM ET, and BSMW is carrying this one on TV.

The Cardinals are 3rd in the NL Central and have an overall record of 74-73, while the Blue Jays are 5th in the AL East and have a record of 70-78. Toronto is favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 8 runs. Kyle Gibson is starting for the Cardinals, and the Blue Jays are starting Jose Berrios.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats

• The Cardinals are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• Conversely, the Blue Jays have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 4-1 record in their last five home games.
• As the favorite, the Blue Jays are 9-1 over their last ten games, including going 7-3 vs. the runline.
• Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Cardinals have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.

Toronto picked up a 4-3 win over the Cardinals in the most recent game of this series. The Blue Jays had to rally late, scoring one run in the 8th and another in the 11th to pick up the win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -133 on the money line.

Kevin Gausman got the start for the Blue Jays, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs. He finished the game with three strikeouts but issued two walks. Erick Fedde only went five innings for the Cardinals, giving up three earned runs on six hits.

Alejandro Kirk was the difference for the Blue Jays, as he homered twice and scored the game-winning run in the 11th. Thomas Saggese hit a home run for the Cardinals, going 1/5 with two RBIs.

Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

St. Louis is 74-73 overall, and they trail the Brewers by 11 games in the NL Central. The Cardinals are 3rd in the division and have gone 23-25 against other NL Central teams. The Cardinals dropped the first game of their series vs. the Blue Jays and have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games.

At home, the Cardinals are 39-35 this year, and they are just below .500 at 35-38 on the road. As the underdog, the Cardinals are 39-38 this year, and they have dropped two straight as the underdog overall. St. Louis’ overall series record is 24-19-5, and they have won three straight series on the road.

The Cardinals have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 73-74 overall. They’ve been especially good on the road, where they are 37-36 against the run line. Their average run margin on the road is -0.6, and they have covered the run line in three straight road games. They have been a much better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 50-27, compared to 23-47 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +2.7, while it drops to -3.6 in losses.

St. Louis is on the road in Toronto today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Cardinals have a combined run average of 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 69-74. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 10-15-1. So far this season, 55.8% of their games have had over/under lines set at over 8 runs, and their current under streak is at 4 games.

Right-hander Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Blue Jays on the road. He has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 8-6 with a 4.20 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .248 off Gibson this season, and he has a total of 12 quality starts. In his last outing, Gibson finished with a no-decision, going 6 2/3 innings and not giving up an earned run. He did give up three walks and three hits in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.

Heading into today’s game, the Cardinals are 24th in the league in scoring at 4.1 runs per game. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting a collective .247, which is 11th in the league, and are 17th in slugging percentage. St. Louis has been getting on base at an average rate and has the 17th best OPS in the MLB.

Paul Goldschmidt and Alec Burleson are tied for the team lead with 21 homers apiece, with Burleson also leading the team with 73 RBIs. Goldschmidt is 4th on the team with 59 RBIs. Masyn Winn is batting .273 for the season and has gone deep 13 times. Over his last eight games, Goldschmidt is batting .267, and Brendan Donovan is 7/20 in his last six games.

Toronto is 5th in the AL East, trailing the Yankees by 16 games for the division lead. Overall, they are 70-78, and they are 16 games behind the Rays for the 2nd Wild Card spot. The Blue Jays are 3-7 over their last ten games and picked up a win in the first game of this series vs. the Cardinals.

As the favorite, the Blue Jays have gone 42-28 this season and 29-21 as the favorite at home. When playing as the underdog, they are just 28-50 this season. So far, they have been below .500 at home, going 36-37, and 34-41 on the road. The Blue Jays’ overall series record is 16-25-6, and they have dropped four straight series.

Despite being under .500 on the run line overall, the Jays have been a profitable team to bet on the run line when they are on the road. Their run line record on the road is 48-27, compared to 27-46 at home. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 44-34 compared to 31-39 as the favorite.

The Blue Jays are at home today against the Cardinals, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. Toronto games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 76-68. When the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 23-15-2. In total, 71 of their games have had an over/under line set higher than 8 runs, which makes up 48.0% of their games.

Toronto is sending José Berríos to the mound today vs. the Cardinals, and he will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. Against the Braves on September 7th, Berríos went six innings, giving up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four outings, he has been solid, going at least six innings and giving up two earned runs or fewer in each start. Berríos’ record for the season is 15-9, and his ERA is 3.52. This year, he has one complete game and 19 quality starts. Per nine innings, Berríos is averaging 7.09 strikeouts and 2.45 walks.

After a strong stretch of games, Spencer Horwitz has moved his season batting average up to .526 by going 10/19 over his last seven games. During this stretch, he has three home runs and seven RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 28 home runs and 95 RBIs, while batting .320 for the season.

As a team, the Blue Jays are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs this season and have a collective batting average of .242. However, they have been good at avoiding strikeouts and have the 6th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Our prediction for today’s Cardinals vs. Blue Jays matchup is to take the Blue Jays on the money line at -134. We have the Blue Jays winning this one by a score of 5-4. Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have José Berríos finishing with four strikeouts, compared to Kyle Gibson, who is projected to finish with just four as well.

If you’re looking for a parlay option, you could look to the over/under line, which is sitting at 8 runs. However, we see this one being a close call, and we would recommend sticking with a Blue Jays win.

Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips

• Take the Blue Jays on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Cardinals (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report