Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets Preview
At 7:07 PM ET, the Mets and Blue Jays square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, and the Mets are the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -116 compared to the Blue Jays at -105. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
New York is 78-65 overall and 2nd in the NL East, while the Blue Jays are 5th in the AL East with a record of 68-76. Chris Bassitt will start for the Blue Jays, and he is facing off against Paul Blackburn for the Mets. SNET is carrying this one on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Toronto Blue Jays – New York Mets odds
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- 4-1 is the record of Mets in their last five road games. They have also gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- In the Blue Jays’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 4-1 against the spread.
- Over the last ten games, Mets has a record of 8-2 when playing as favorites and 5-5 when playing as underdogs.
- The Blue Jays hold a 8-2 record as the favorite and a 3-7 record as the underdog.
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets Prediction
Led by a big game by Harrison Bader at the plate, the Mets are coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. Bader went 2/3 with a run scored and a walk. The Mets also got a good start from Luis Severino, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up just one run while striking out eight. However, they still took the loss, as the Reds scored three runs in the top of the 9th to steal the win from the Mets. New York was the -210 favorite at home going into the game.
Phil Maton took the loss out of the bullpen for the Mets, as the Mets allowed three runs in the top of the 9th to blow their lead. The Mets also wasted a good game from Harrison Bader, who went 2/3 with a run scored.
The Mets are seven games behind the Phillies in the NL East as they are 78-65 overall. New York is on the road today vs. the Blue Jays, and they are 38-31 on the road this season. They have been good at home, posting a 40-34 record.
As the road favorite, the Mets have gone 18-13 this year, and they have won four straight as the road team overall. New York has an overall series record of 25-16-8, and they have won four straight series.
When betting on the Mets run line, it’s been a good idea to take them on the road this season, as they are 39-30 against the run line. Their average run margin on the road is +0.4, and they have covered the run line in four straight road games. The Mets have been a better bet on the run line as an underdog, going 33-23, compared to 39-48 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.6, while it’s -3.5 in losses.
The Mets are on the road today against the Blue Jays, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average in Mets games this season is 9.1 runs per game, and their over/under record is 71-68. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 25-18. Overall, 35 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 24.5% of their games. Their current under streak is at 2 games.
New York is sending right-hander Paul Blackburn to the mound today vs. the Blue Jays. He has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 5-4 with a 4.66 ERA. Blackburn’s WHIP for the season is 1.29, and opponents are batting .252 off him this year. In his 14 appearances, Blackburn has turned in seven quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Blackburn took the loss, giving up five earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of work vs. the Padres. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 7th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they are 5th in the league in home runs and have the 11th best team batting average in the league. The Mets have been a tough team to strike out this season, as they are 17th in the league in strikeouts.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been a solid 1-2 punch in the Mets lineup this season, as they have 30 and 31 home runs, respectively. Lindor comes into the game batting .270, while Alonso is at just .240. Over his last seven games, Mark Vientos is batting .370 with three homers.
Toronto closed out their series vs. the Braves with a 4-3 loss. Heading into the game, the Blue Jays were at +227 on the money line. Things started off well for the Blue Jays, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Braves scored in the bottom of the 2nd.
Yariel Rodriguez got the start for the Blue Jays and took the loss. He only lasted five innings, giving up one earned run, and was pulled after throwing 68 pitches. The Blue Jays’s offense scored their other two runs in the 8th but couldn’t complete the comeback. Spencer Horwitz had a big game, going 2/2 with a homer and two RBIs.
Toronto is 68-76 overall and is 5th in the AL East, 14.5 games behind the Yankees for the division lead. The Blue Jays also trail the Rays by 3.5 games for 4th place in the division. So far, they are 20-26 against other AL East teams.
At home, the Blue Jays are 34-35 this season and 34-41 on the road. As the favorite, Toronto has gone 41-28 and 27-48 as the underdog. The Blue Jays lost the final two games of their series vs. the Braves after taking the opener.
When the Blue Jays are the underdog, they have been a good bet to cover the run line this season, going 42-33. They have also been a good bet to cover the run line on the road, going 48-27. However, at home, they have struggled to cover the run line, going just 25-44. Overall, they are 73-71 against the run line this season.
The Toronto Blue Jays are home today against the New York Mets, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Blue Jays have played 139 games this season, and their combined run average is 8.9 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 75-66, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 23-19. So far this season, 28 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 19.4% of their total games.
Chris Bassitt will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Phillies, as he finished with a no-decision in that start. Against the Phillies, he gave up three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Looking back over his last four starts, Bassitt has allowed at least two homers in three of those outings. His ERA for the season is 4.30, along with a record of 9-13. Bassitt’s WHIP for the season is 1.43. Opposing batters have hit .263 off Bassitt this season. Out of his 28 starts, he has 11 quality starts and is averaging 8.94 strikeouts per nine innings.
For the season, the Blue Jays are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They have been a little better on the road, also averaging 4.3 runs per game. Toronto is 18th in home runs and has a team batting average of .242, which is 14th in the league. Coming into the game, the Blue Jays have a few hitters on some nice streaks, with Justin Turner on a four-game streak, Alejandro Kirk on a six-game streak, and Joey Loperfido on a three-game streak.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is having a great season for the Blue Jays, as he is batting .324 with 28 home runs and 94 RBIs. George Springer is also a big power threat in the lineup, but he is hitting just .222 for the season. However, Springer does have 19 home runs, which is 2nd on the team.
Our prediction for this Mets vs. Blue Jays matchup is to take the Blue Jays on the money line at -105. We have the Blue Jays winning this one by a score of 6-5, and with the payout for a Blue Jays win sitting at -105, we see this as a great value.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Chris Bassitt is projected to go for the Blue Jays, and he is predicted to finish with six strikeouts. As for Paul Blackburn, he is projected to finish with five K’s for the Mets.
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- We like the Blue Jays on the moneyline (-105)
- The Blue Jays are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | Out | Calf |
| Jordan Romano | Out | Elbow |
| Orelvis Martinez | Out | Suspension |
| Alek Manoah | Out | Elbow |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Jeff McNeil | Out | Wrist |
| Paul Blackburn | Probable | Hand |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
