Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Preview
At 3:07 PM ET, the Astros and Blue Jays face off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at Rogers Centre in Toronto, and the Astros are the favorites on the money line (-150). The Blue Jays have a record of 38-45 and they are 5th in the AL East, while the Astros are 2nd in the AL West.
Monday’s forecast in Toronto calls for thunderstorms, with temperatures in the mid-70s. Hunter Brown will start for the Astros, and the Blue Jays are starting Yariel Rodriguez. Houston is currently on a two-game winning streak.
Check out BetCoco for Toronto Blue Jays – Houston Astros odds
Toronto Blue Jays Trends and Key Stats
- The Astros are 4-1 in their five most recent road games, including a 4-1 runline record.
- In the Blue Jays’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 1-4 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- Looking back on their last ten games as the favorite, the Astros are 7-3 straight-up and 7-3 vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Blue Jays have gone 4-6 against the runline, with a straight-up record of 5-5 over their last ten games.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Prediction
The Astros’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Mets, closing out their series with a 10-5 win. After allowing one run to the Mets in the 2nd inning, the Astros responded with a run of their own and added another in the 4th. Houston really broke things open with a five-run 5th inning and added another five runs in the 11th to close things out. Going into the game, the Astros were the slight favorite at +107 on the money line.
Shawn Dubin got the start for the Astros, going 3 1/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and got the win. The Astros’s offense was carried by Jon Singleton, who went 3/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
Houston is 42-41 overall and is 3.5 games behind the Mariners for the AL West lead. The Astros will be on the road today vs. the Blue Jays, and they have taken two straight games overall. Their overall record includes a mark of 15-12 in AL West games.
As the favorite, the Astros are just below .500 at 31-32, and they are 11-9 as the underdog this year. At home, the Astros have gone 24-19 compared to 18-22 on the road. Houston has won five straight games as the favorite.
When the Astros are on the road, they have a run line record of 18-22. Their road scoring margin is -0.4 runs per game, and their average run margin in all games is +0.4 runs per game. They have covered the run line in two straight road games and are 40-43 overall on the run line this season.
The Houston Astros are on the road today against the Toronto Blue Jays with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Astros games this season is 9.0 runs per game, and their over/under record is 31-48. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 9-13. Overall, 39.8% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs, and their current over streak is at 3 games.
Hunter Brown gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Blue Jays on the road. So far this season, he has made 15 starts and eight of them have been quality starts. Brown’s ERA for the season is 4.37, along with a record of 5-5. Looking at his home/road splits, Brown has an ERA of 21.15 on the road compared to 3.55 at home. In his last outing, he didn’t allow a run and picked up the win, going six innings of work. Brown has actually won his last four starts.
Heading into today’s game, the Astros are the league’s top-hitting team, with a batting average of .265. They are also the league’s top home run hitting team and have the best slugging percentage in the league. As a team, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. At home, they are averaging 5.1 runs per contest.
Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, and Kyle Tucker are the Astros’ top power threats, with Alvarez and Tucker leading the team in RBIs and home runs, respectively. Diaz has gone 18/42 over his last 10 games, while Alvarez and Jose Altuve have both gone deep twice in their last 10 games, with Altuve hitting .364 over that stretch. Jake Meyers has also been swinging a hot bat, going 11/34 in his last 10 games.
The Blue Jays will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Yankees with an 8-1 loss. Toronto was actually the slight favorite at home going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Yankees scored two runs in the 1st and added another two in the 2nd. New York’s offense scored a total of eight runs on 12 hits and went just one home run.
Kevin Gausman got the start for the Blue Jays and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs on seven hits. The Blue Jays also issued three walks and hit a batter. Gausman took the loss and was really the only option out of the bullpen for the Blue Jays.
Toronto is 38-45 overall and 14.5 games behind the Orioles for the AL East lead. So far, they are 12-16 against other teams in the AL East. The Blue Jays are just 3-7 over their last ten games and split their most recent series vs. the Yankees.
At home, the Blue Jays are 20-21 this year compared to an 18-24 mark on the road. As the favorite, Toronto has gone 29-20 and 9-25 as the underdog. When playing at home as the underdog, the Blue Jays are 2-8 this year. So far, their overall series record is 9-12-6.
When the Blue Jays win, they tend to win by a decent margin, as their average run differential in victories is +3.4. However, when they lose, they tend to lose by a lot, with an average run differential of -4.0 in defeats. Overall, Toronto is 39-44 against the run line this season, including an 15-26 mark at home. They’ve been a better bet on the road, going 24-18 vs. the run line.
The Toronto Blue Jays are at home today against the Houston Astros, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Blue Jays’ games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 39-41 overall. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 11-15. Toronto’s games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs this season, and they have had nine games with over/under lines set at 8.5 runs. Their current over streak is at seven games.
Through five starts, Yariel Rodríguez has a record of 0-2 and an ERA of 5.94. He has made a total of five appearances this season. In his last outing, Rodríguez got the start and took the loss, going just 1 1/3 innings and giving up four earned runs. Looking back over his last three starts, he has allowed at least two home runs in each outing. Opposing batters are hitting .292 this season off the right-hander. So far, he has a BB/9 figure of 5.94 compared to 9.18 strikeouts per nine innings.
Over the Blue Jays’ last nine games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on fire, going 17/39 with six home runs and 20 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .297 with 13 homers and 50 RBIs, which are both good for 1st on the team and 13th in the league. Daulton Varsho is 2nd on the team with 11 homers but is batting just .199.
As a team, the Blue Jays are 23rd in the league in scoring at 4 runs per game. They have been a little better on the road (4.1 RPG) than at home (4.0 RPG). Overall, they are batting .236, which is 15th in the league, and have the 19th ranked slugging percentage. Toronto’s offense is also 3rd in the league in fewest strikeouts.
Our prediction for this Astros vs. Blue Jays matchup is to take the Blue Jays on the money line, with the payout sitting at +128. We have the Blue Jays coming out on top by a score of 6-5.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Yariel Rodríguez is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which is good for third among all starters. As for Hunter Brown, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which is fourth among all starters.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Blue Jays (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yimi García | Out | Elbow |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Questionable | Hand |
| Jordan Romano | Out | Elbow |
| Orelvis Martinez | Out | Suspension |
| Alek Manoah | Out | Elbow |
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | Out | Neck |
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Victor Caratini | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Kyle Tucker | Out | Shin |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| Jake Bloss | Out | Shoulder |
