Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Preview
Dean Kremer gets the start for the Orioles on Thursday, and he will be facing off against Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays. Baltimore is currently 1st in the AL East with a record of 68-47, while the Blue Jays are 5th in the division at 52-62.
The over/under line for Thursday’s game is at 9 runs, and the Orioles are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -116 compared to the Blue Jays at -102. Kevin Gausman will be on the mound for the Blue Jays, while the Orioles are starting Dean Kremer. This game can be seen on MASN.
Check out BetCoco for Toronto Blue Jays – Baltimore Orioles odds
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Orioles are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Blue Jays have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- In their previous ten games, the Orioles have recorded a 6-4 record as the favorite, while they have a 4-6 record as the underdog.
- The Blue Jays hold a 4-6 record as the favorite and a 4-6 record as the underdog.
Baltimore cruised to a 7-3 win over the Blue Jays in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles had a huge 1st inning, scoring two of their three runs. As for the Blue Jays, they scored their first run in the 2nd and added their final two runs in the 7th.
Trevor Rogers got the win for the Orioles, going five innings and giving up two earned runs. He finished the game with just two strikeouts but induced 10 ground balls. Ryan Burr took the loss for Toronto out of the bullpen.
Anthony Santander and Jackson Holliday each homered for the Orioles, while Eloy Jimenez scored twice and drove in two runs while going 2/4. Leo Jimenez had a three-hit game for the Blue Jays.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
Baltimore heads into today’s matchup vs. the Blue Jays with an overall record of 68-47, which has them tied with the Yankees for the AL East lead. So far, they have gone 24-11 against other teams in the AL East. The Orioles are looking to take the series lead today, as they are 22-10-3 in series this season.
The Orioles have been good at home this year, going 34-25, and they have been even better on the road at 34-22. Baltimore has been good as the favorite this season, putting up a mark of 56-37. As the underdog, the Orioles are 12-10 this year. Looking at their overall record, the Orioles are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
When betting the Orioles on the run line this season, it’s been a good idea to take them on the road, where they are 33-23. Their average scoring margin on the road is 1.0 runs per game, compared to 0.6 at home. They are 15-7 against the run line as underdogs, and their average run margin in winning games is 3.8 runs per game.
Today’s over/under line of 9 runs for the Orioles-Blue Jays game is higher than the average line for Baltimore games this season. The Orioles have played 81 games with lower over/under lines than 9 runs, and their games have averaged a combined 9.4 runs per game this season. Baltimore’s over/under record for the season is 64-41, and their record when the line is set at 9 runs is 13-12-3.
Right-hander Dean Kremer is on the mound for the Orioles today as he faces the Blue Jays on the road. He has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 4-8 with an ERA of 4.39. Kremer’s WHIP for the season is 1.25. In his 15 appearances, he has turned in four quality starts and is coming off a rough outing where he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. Kremer took the loss in that outing. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Opponents are batting .225 this season off Kremer.
Not only do the Orioles lead the league in home runs, but they are also near the top of the league in runs per game, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Baltimore has been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .255, which is 6th in the league, and they also have the best slugging percentage in the league.
Anthony Santander has been on a tear for the Orioles, hitting five home runs over his last 10 games while batting .317. For the season, he is batting .248 with 34 home runs, which is 2nd in the league. Gunnar Henderson is batting .287 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 29 homers.
Toronto is 52-62 overall and 15.5 games behind the Orioles in the AL East. So far, they are 16-24 in AL East matchups. The Blue Jays have dropped two straight series and are 12-18-5 in series play this year.
At home, the Blue Jays are 27-29 this year, and they are 25-33 on the road. As the favorite, Toronto has gone 33-24 this year and 19-38 as the underdog. They are 4-6 over their last ten games and are currently tied 1-1 in their series vs. the Orioles.
When betting the run line, the Blue Jays have been a better bet on the road than at home, with a 35-23 record compared to 19-37. They have an average run differential of -0.8 runs per game, but that number is better on the road (-0.6) than at home (-1.0). They have been a better bet as the underdog (30-27) than as the favorite (24-33).
At home, the Toronto Blue Jays have played to an over/under record of 62-49 this season, and their games have averaged a combined 9.0 runs per contest. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 3-4-2. Overall, 86.0% of their games have had lower lines than 9 runs, with just 6.1% of their games having higher lines.
Kevin Gausman gets the start for the Blue Jays today and comes in with a record of 9-8 and an ERA of 4.56. This year, he has made 22 starts, and opponents are batting .248 off the right-hander. Gausman has turned in 10 quality starts, two complete games, and one shutout this year. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. So far, he has been much better on the road, coming in with a 5.15 ERA compared to 7.56 at home.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the league’s top hitters this season, with a batting average of .317 to go along with 22 home runs and 72 RBIs. He has also been hot of late, going 9/21 in his last six games. Guerrero Jr. is also on a 19-game hitting streak. The Blue Jays will need George Springer and Daulton Varsho to pick it up a bit, as they are batting just .224 and .203, respectively.
As a team, the Blue Jays are 24th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.1 runs per game. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a team batting average of just .241. However, they have been good at avoiding strikeouts and are 5th in the league in that category.
Our pick for today’s Orioles vs. Blue Jays matchup is to take the Blue Jays on the money line at -102. We have the Blue Jays winning this one by a score of 6-5. With the over/under line sitting at 9 runs, there isn’t a lot of wiggle room, but we do see this one going over.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Kevin Gausman finishing with six strikeouts, which is good for seventh among starters today. As for Dean Kremer, we have him finishing with just four strikeouts, which is second worst among starters.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips
- Take the Blue Jays on the moneyline
- The Blue Jays are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | Out | Calf |
| Jordan Romano | Out | Elbow |
| Orelvis Martinez | Out | Suspension |
| Alek Manoah | Out | Elbow |
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Jorge Mateo | Out | Elbow |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Out | Lat |
| Jacob Webb | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Heston Kjerstad | Out | Head |
| Jordan Westburg | Out | Hand |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
