Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Betting Tips 8/7/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Preview

Baltimore and Toronto are set to face off in an AL East matchup at 7:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Orioles are 67-47 and they are starting Trevor Rogers, while the Blue Jays are 52-61 and they have Bowden Francis on the mound.

The over/under line for Wednesday’s game is at 9.5 runs, and the Orioles are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -151 compared to +128 for the Blue Jays. Looking at the standings, the Orioles are in 2nd place in the AL East, while the Blue Jays are 5th.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats

• The Orioles are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
• In the Blue Jays’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 1-4 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
• Over their last ten games, the Orioles have a 6-4 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
• Over their last ten games as the underdog, the Blue Jays have gone 1-9 vs. the runline and 4-6 straight-up.

Toronto cruised to a 5-2 win over the Orioles in the most recent game of this series. The Blue Jays had a huge 6th inning, scoring five of their seven runs. As for the Orioles, they scored their only two runs in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Blue Jays were at +127 on the money line.

Chris Bassitt started for the Blue Jays and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs. He finished the game with nine strikeouts but issued two walks. On the other side, Albert Suarez only went five innings for the Orioles, giving up two hits and no earned runs.

Alejandro Kirk and Daulton Varsho each homered for the Blue Jays, while Spencer Horwitz went 2/3 with an RBI. Addison Barger also had a two-hit game and drove in two runs.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

With an overall record of 67-47, the Orioles are 2nd in the AL East and trail the Yankees by just a half-game. So far, they have been really good against other teams in the AL East, putting up a record of 23-11. The Orioles have gone 6-4 over their last 10 games and lost the first game of this series vs. the Blue Jays.

At home, the Orioles have gone 34-25 this season, and they have been a game above .500 on the road, coming in with a record of 33-22. As the favorite, the Orioles are 55-37 this year, and they are 24-15 as the favorite on the road. So far, their overall series record is 22-10-3.

When the Orioles are on the road, they have been a good bet to cover the run line, going 32-23. Their average run differential on the road is +0.9 runs per game, compared to +0.6 at home. They have been a favorite in 92 games, going 46-46 vs. the run line. When they are the underdog, they are 15-7.

When the Orioles play on the road, the over/under line is typically set at 8 runs, but today’s line is 9.5 runs. The Orioles have played 109 games with lower lines than 9.5 runs, and their games have averaged 9.4 runs per game this season. Their over/under record for the season is 63-41, and they are 5-0 when the line is set at 9.5 runs.

Trevor Rogers gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Blue Jays on the road. This year, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 2-10. Rogers’ ERA is 4.76, and he has a WHIP of 1.55. The left-hander has made three quality starts this year and is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up five earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had gone 1-0 with two straight starts of giving up just one earned run. Rogers has been much worse on the road, coming in with a 6.21 ERA compared to 5.18 at home.

So far this season, the Orioles have been the best home run hitting team in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in runs per game, at 5.1. They are batting a collective .255, which is 6th in the league, and their slugging percentage of .452 is also the best in the MLB. One of the reasons they have been so good offensively is that they have the best Isolated Power (ISO) in the league.

Gunnar Henderson has been on a tear of late, going 11/28 in his last seven games with a home run and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .290 with 29 homers and 69 RBIs. Anthony Santander is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he has gone deep 32 times this season, which is 3rd in the league.

Toronto is 52-61 overall and 5th in the AL East, trailing the Yankees by 15 games for the division lead. In their 5th place in the division, they are 15 games behind the Rays for the final wild card spot. So far, they are just 16-23 in AL East games.

At home, the Blue Jays are 27-28 this season and 25-33 on the road. As the favorite, Toronto has gone 33-24 and 19-37 as the underdog. The Blue Jays have won four straight at home, and their overall series record is 12-18-5. Toronto is coming off a series loss and is 5-5 in their last 10 games.

When betting the run line, the Blue Jays have been a much better team on the road this season, going 35-23 against the run line compared to just 19-36 at home. They have covered the run line in three straight games at home, but overall, they are just 24-33 against the run line as the favorite and 30-26 as the underdog. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.1, while in losses, it’s -4.0.

The Toronto Blue Jays are at home today against the Baltimore Orioles with the over/under line set at 9.5 runs. The Blue Jays have an over/under record of 61-49 on the season, and their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over is 3-2. Only 1% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 9.5 runs, and their games have gone under the total in 94.7% of their games this season. The under has hit in their last two games.

Toronto is starting right-hander Bowden Francis vs. the Orioles today, and he comes into the game with a record of 4-3 and an ERA of 5.64. So far, he has made 18 appearances and four starts. In his most recent outing, Francis took the loss, giving up one earned run in one-third of an inning of work out of the bullpen. Before that, he had picked up the win in back-to-back outings. One of those wins came as a starter. Opposing batters are hitting .276 off Francis this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.46.

Over the past five games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone 8/18 with four runs scored and one home run. For the season, he is batting .317 with 22 home runs and 72 RBIs. Guerrero Jr. is currently on an 18-game hitting streak. Daulton Varsho and George Springer are also near the top of the team’s home run list, but both players are batting below .225.

As a team, the Blue Jays are 23rd in runs scored and are batting just .240. However, they do have the 11th best on-base percentage in the league. Overall, they have been good at avoiding strikeouts and are 5th in the league in that category. Currently, Toronto is 22nd in home runs.

Our recommended bet for today’s Orioles vs. Blue Jays matchup is to take the Blue Jays on the money line at +128. We actually have the Blue Jays winning this game 6-5, meaning you could also look to take the over at 9.5 runs.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays has the fourth-best chances of picking up a win among today’s starters. As for the Orioles’ starter, Trevor Rogers, we have him picking up the sixth-most strikeouts. However, we have Rogers finishing with a better ERA than Francis.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips

• We like the Blue Jays on the moneyline (+128)
• On the run line we like Blue Jays (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles Injury Report