Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Preview
The over/under line for Sunday’s Guardians vs. Rays game is currently at 7.5 runs, with the Rays being favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -123. The money line odds for a Guardians win are sitting at +104. First pitch from Tropicana Field is set for 1:40 PM ET, and BSGL is carrying this one on TV.
Cleveland is currently 1st in the AL Central with a record of 58-36, while the Rays are 4th in the AL East with a record of 47-48. Ben Lively is starting for the Guardians, and he is facing off against Ryan Pepiot for the Rays.
Check out BetCoco for Tampa Bay Rays – Cleveland Guardians odds
Tampa Bay Rays Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Guardians in their last five road games. They have also gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Rays have achieved a 1-4 (SU) record and 1-4 record in their last five home games.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Rays have a record of 5-5 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Guardians have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
Cleveland picked up a 4-2 road win over the Rays in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians offense got off to a fast start, scoring two runs in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Rays got on the board with one run in the 3rd and added their final run in the 5th.
Gavin Williams only went five innings for the Guardians but gave up just one run and picked up two strikeouts. Nick Sandlin got the win out of the bullpen, and Emmanuel Clase got the save. Zack Littell had a good outing for the Rays, going six innings and giving up just one run.
Jhonkensy Noel and Angel Martinez each homered for the Guardians, while Andres Gimenez scored twice and drove in a run while going 2/4. Josh Naylor also had a two-hit game at the plate.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Cleveland heads into today’s matchup vs. the Rays with an overall record of 58-36, putting them in 1st place in the AL Central. They currently lead the Twins by 4.5 games. The Guardians were able to take game two of this series with the Rays after dropping the opener.
The Guardians have an overall series record of 20-8-2 this year. At home, they are 30-11 compared to 28-25 on the road. Cleveland has really struggled as the underdog in recent games, as they have dropped five straight as the underdog. As the favorite, the Guardians are 42-20 this year.
When the Guardians are on the road, they have been a good bet to cover the run line, going 27-26. They have an average run margin of 0.7 runs per game on the road, which is just below their overall average run margin of 0.9 runs per game. As the underdog, they have been even better against the run line, going 20-12.
The Cleveland Guardians have played in 67% of their games with an over/under line higher than 7.5 runs this season, and their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game. Their over/under record is 47-41, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs. Their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 15-11, and they are currently on a two-game under streak.
Cleveland is sending Ben Lively to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 8-4 and an ERA of 3.59. Lively has made 15 starts this year and has pitched well on the road, coming in with a record of 3-4 and an ERA of 4.5. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Lively’s ERA for the month of July is 5.40. Overall, he has allowed 13 homers and is averaging 7.73 strikeouts per nine innings.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the top power threats for the Guardians this season, as Ramirez’s 23 homers are 5th in the league, while Naylor’s 22 long balls are 6th in the MLB. Ramirez’s 77 RBIs are 2nd in the league, with Naylor not far behind, as his 70 RBIs are the 3rd most in baseball. Over his last five games, Ramirez has gone 7/19, while Naylor has gone just 3/23.
Overall, the Guardians are 8th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .244, which is 11th in the league, and are near the top of the league in both home runs and slugging percentage.
Tampa Bay is 47-48 overall and trails the Orioles by 10 games in the AL East. So far, they are just 12-18 in divisional games. The Rays will be at home today, and they are 26-27 at home this year.
The Rays have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games and are currently tied with the Guardians in their series. This season, the Rays have been the favorite in 52 games, and they are 27-25 in those games. As the underdog, Tampa Bay is 20-23 this year. They have an overall series record of 16-12-2 this year.
So far this season, the Rays have been a great team to bet on when it comes to the run line, as they have covered in 44 of their 95 games. However, they have been a much better bet on the run line on the road, as they have covered in 25 of their 42 games away from Tropicana Field. They have been a much worse bet on the run line at home, covering in just 19 of their 53 games at Tropicana Field. Overall, the Rays have an average run differential of -0.7 runs per game, and they have covered the run line in 19 of their 52 games as the favorite and 25 of their 43 games as the underdog.
With a combined run average of 8.6 runs per game, the Tampa Bay Rays have seen a majority of their games go over the total this season, as their over/under record is 45-45. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the Rays have gone over in 16 of 28 games, and overall, 65.3% of their games have had higher lines than 7.5 runs. They have gone under in their last two games.
Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of work. In that outing vs. the Yankees, he only gave up four hits and issued three walks. Looking back over his last four starts, Pepiot has finished with a no-decision in three of them. The right-hander has a record of 5-5 this season and an ERA of 4.21. Opposing batters are hitting .203 off Pepiot this season.
Isaac Paredes has been the Rays’ top power threat this season, as his 15 homers is the best mark on the team and 13th best in the league. However, he has really struggled of late, going just 5/32 in his last 10 games. Overall, Paredes is batting .264 for the season. Yandy Diaz comes into the game on a seven-game hitting streak and has the 2nd best batting average on the team at .276.
Overall, the Rays have been a below-average offense this season, averaging just 3.9 runs per game (26th in the league). They have been especially bad at home, averaging just 3.7 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .236 and have the 20th ranked home run total in the MLB.
Our prediction for this Guardians vs. Rays matchup is to take the Guardians on the money line, where they are currently sitting at +104. We have the Guardians taking this one by a score of 5-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Ben Lively finishing with five strikeouts compared to Ryan Pepiot with just four. However, we have Pepiot going longer in this one, as he is projected to go six innings, compared to Lively, who we have going just five.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips
- We like the Guardians on the moneyline (+104)
- The Guardians are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Tampa Bay Rays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wander Franco | Out | Personal |
| Drew Rasmussen | Out | Arm |
| Richard Lovelady | Out | Forearm |
| Jeffrey Springs | Out | Elbow |
| Shane McClanahan | Out | Elbow |
| Jacob Waguespack | Out | Shoulder |
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | Out | Elbow |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
