Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Preview
From Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, we have the Red Sox and Rays facing off in an AL East matchup. This one gets started at 6:50 PM ET, and NESN will be televising the game.
The Red Sox are even money on the money line (+100), and the Rays are the slight favorite at -121. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and Boston is looking to snap a two-game losing streak. Tanner Houck is starting for the Red Sox, and he is facing off against Ryan Pepiot. The Rays are 4th in the AL East, while the Red Sox are 3rd with a record of 75-76.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- The Red Sox are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- In the Rays’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Rays have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 4-6 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Red Sox have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Tampa Bay cruised to an easy 8-3 win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Rays had a huge 5th inning, scoring four of their eight runs. As for the Red Sox, they scored their only three runs in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Rays were at +111 on the money line.
Shane Baz started for the Rays and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued five walks. On the other side, Nick Pivetta got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss, going just 4 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on five hits.
Jose Siri and Josh Lowe each homered for the Rays, while Junior Caminero scored three times and drove in a run while going 2/4. Brandon Lowe also had a two-hit game and drove in two runs.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction
Boston is 75-76 overall, and they are 3rd in the AL East, 13 games behind the Yankees for the division lead. The Red Sox have dropped two straight games, and they are 4-6 over their last 10 games. In the AL East, they are 21-23 against other teams in the division.
At home, the Red Sox are 35-40 this year, and they have gone 40-36 on the road. As the road favorite, Boston has put together a record of 15-6 this year. Their overall record as the favorite is 41-34 compared to 34-42 as the underdog. So far, their series record is 22-19-6.
The Red Sox have been a solid bet on the run line on the road this season, going 43-33. They have a run line record of 71-80 overall, with an average run margin of -0.0. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.9, while it’s -3.9 in losing games.
The Boston Red Sox are on the road today against the Tampa Bay Rays. The O/U line for today’s game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their average O/U line of 9 runs per game. Their games have averaged a combined 9.5 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 75-68. When the O/U line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 9-11. The majority of their games this season have had higher O/U lines than 7.5 runs, with only 2 games having lower lines.
Tanner Houck will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mets, as he gets the start for the Red Sox today. Against the Mets, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last three starts, he has given up at least two homers in each outing. Houck’s record for the season is 8-10, and he has an ERA of 3.24. So far, he has made 28 starts, one of which was a complete game shutout. Opponents are batting .232 off Houck this season.
Over the Red Sox’s last 10 games, Tyler O’Neill has six home runs, but he has hit just .237 during that stretch. Overall, he is batting .251 and is 11th in the league with 31 homers. O’Neill’s 61 RBIs are 4th on the team. Jarren Duran is 2nd on the team with 72 RBIs and has a batting average of .285.
As a team, the Red Sox are 7th in home runs and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are 5th in team batting average and have the league’s best BABIP at .32.
Tampa Bay is 74-77 overall, and they are 14 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. Currently, they are in 4th place in the division and have gone 20-24 against other AL East teams. The Rays are at home today, and they are 38-38 at home this year.
The Rays have been slightly better than .500 at home, and they are 36-39 on the road. So far, they have gone 35-30 as the favorite and 39-47 as the underdog. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 22-18-7, and they are currently up 1-0 in this series vs. the Red Sox.
When the Rays have been favored, they have not been a good bet, going just 24-41 on the run line. However, as an underdog, they have been a great bet, going 54-32. The Rays’ average run differential in their wins is +2.8, while in their losses it is -3.4.
When the Tampa Bay Rays play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The Rays have played 50 games with a line set at 7.5 runs this season and have gone over the line in 23 of them. Their games have averaged 8.0 runs per game this season, and the over/under record for the season is 66-77. Overall, the over/under line for their games this season has been set at 8 runs per game.
Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today and comes into the game with a record of 8-6 and ERA of 3.76. So far this season, he has made 23 starts and eight of them have been quality starts. Looking at his numbers, Pepiot has a BB/9 figure of 3.29 compared to 9.31 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in two innings of work. Before that, he had gone 5 1/3 innings without giving up an earned run. Pepiot has given up at least one homer in four of his last five outings.
Yandy Diaz has been on a tear of late for the Rays, hitting .414 over his last eight games, with one home run. This has helped him take over the team’s top batting average spot at .283. Diaz also leads the team with 65 RBIs. Brandon Lowe has also been swinging a good bat of late, going 7/27 in his last eight games with three homers.
As a team, the Rays are 28th in runs scored, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team slugging percentage. Overall, they are batting just .231, which is 18th in the league.
Our pick for this Red Sox and Rays matchup is to take the Red Sox on the money line at +100. We actually have the Red Sox winning this one by a score of 5-4. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also take the over, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and we have this one going over.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Tanner Houck finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Ryan Pepiot with just four. And in terms of team projections, the Red Sox lineup is predicted to finish with nine hits compared to the Rays with eight.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Tips
- We like the Red Sox on the moneyline (+100)
- The Red Sox are also our pick on the spread at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Tampa Bay Rays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wander Franco | Out | Personal |
| Jeffrey Springs | Out | Elbow |
| Shane McClanahan | Out | Elbow |
| Richie Palacios | Out | Knee |
| Jacob Waguespack | Out | Shoulder |
| Pete Fairbanks | Out | Lat |
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luis García | Out | Elbow |
| James Paxton | Out | Calf |
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Rob Refsnyder | Questionable | Wrist |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Lucas Sims | Out | Lat |
| Brennan Bernardino | Out | Forearm |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Tanner Houck | Probable | Arm |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Elbow |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Elbow |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| David Hamilton | Out | Finger |
