Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Preview
From Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, we have the Orioles and Rays facing off in an AL East matchup. This one gets started at 1:40 PM ET, and MASN will be televising it.
Both teams are sending their starting pitchers with no names, and the Rays are hoping to snap a two-game losing streak. However, they come into this one as the slight money line favorite, with the odds sitting at -109. The Orioles are 70-48 overall and have won two straight.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Orioles have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Rays have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 4-1 record in their last five home contests.
- In their previous ten games, Orioles have won 6-4 as favorites and 4-6 as underdogs.
- In their last ten games, the Rays have a record of 5-5 as the favorite and 5-5 as the underdog.
Baltimore picked up a 7-5 road win over the Rays in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles had a three-run 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up three in the 8th. As for the Rays, they scored their first run in the 5th and added four more in the 7th.
Corbin Burnes started for the Orioles and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued just one walk. On the other side, Drew Rasmussen only went one inning for the Rays and gave up three earned runs on four hits.
At the plate, the Orioles were led by a big game from Ryan Mountcastle, who went 3/5 with three RBIs. Adley Rutschman also had a two-hit game and drove in a run. For the Rays, Jose Caballero went 2/4 with a home run and three RBIs.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
Baltimore is 70-48 overall and leads the AL East by one game over the Yankees. The Orioles have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Rays. So far, they have gone 26-12 in AL East games. At home, the Orioles are 34-25 this year, and they are 36-23 on the road.
As the road favorite, the Orioles have gone 27-16 this year, and they are 58-38 when favored overall. Baltimore has an overall series record of 21-11-4 this year. Looking at their overall performance, the Orioles have gone 6-4 over their last ten games.
The Orioles have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 64-54 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 35-24. In their last two games, they have covered the run line, and they have covered the run line in two straight games as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.8.
When the Orioles hit the road to face the Rays, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The combined run average in Orioles games this season is 9.4 runs per game, and their over/under record is 66-42. When the line is set at 8 runs, the over/under record is 14-6-3. Overall, 57.6% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs.
Right-hander Albert Suárez gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Rays on the road. He has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 5-4 with an ERA of 3.66. Suárez has pitched well at home, coming in with a 2.38 ERA compared to 5.44 on the road. Out of his 23 appearances, Suárez has turned in just two quality starts. His most recent outing came against the Blue Jays, where he went five innings, giving up two earned runs on six hits. Suárez finished with a no-decision in that outing.
So far this season, the Orioles have been the top home run hitting team in the league, and they are also 1st in slugging percentage and OPS. Overall, they are 3rd in the league in runs scored, averaging 5.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .256, which is 5th best in the league.
Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander have been the Orioles’ top power threats this season, with Henderson having 29 homers and Santander at 34. Santander is also 12th in the league in RBIs (78). Henderson comes into the game with a six-game hitting streak, while Jackson Holliday has struggled of late, going 3/18 in his last five games.
Tampa Bay will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak today, and they will be doing so at home vs. the Orioles. Currently, the Rays are 58-58 overall, putting them 4th in the AL East, 11 games behind the Orioles. So far, they have gone just 16-23 in AL East matchups.
The Rays have been just below .500 at home, coming in with a mark of 30-31. On the road, they are 28-27 this season. As the underdog, the Rays are 28-31 this season, and they have dropped two straight as the underdog overall. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 20-12-4, and they are 4-6 in their last 10 games overall.
When it comes to betting the run line on the Rays, it’s been a tale of two teams. They are 34-21 against the run line on the road, but just 24-37 at home. They are also 36-23 against the run line as the underdog, but just 22-35 as the favorite. Overall, they are 58-58 against the run line this season.
Today’s over/under line of 8 runs is right in line with the season average for Tampa Bay, as the Rays have played to an average of 8.3 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 54-57, and when the line has been set at 8 runs, they’ve gone 13-17-1. Overall, 43 of their games have had higher lines than 8 runs, while 42 have had lower lines.
Jeffrey Springs will be making his 3rd start of the season for the Rays, and he will be taking on the Orioles at home. Springs is 0-1 on the year, and in his last start, he went 5 innings and gave up 4 runs on 6 hits. He did strike out 3 batters but also gave up 2 home runs.
Overall, the Rays offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 3.9 runs per game. They have been even worse at home, scoring just 3.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .234 and have the league’s 21st ranked home run total. However, they do come into the game with a good walk rate and have a collective OBP of .311.
Christopher Morel has been a bright spot for the Rays this season, leading the team with 53 RBIs and 20 home runs. However, he is batting just .195 this season. Yandy Diaz has been a bit more consistent, batting .271 with 10 homers and 51 RBIs. Brandon Lowe and Jose Siri are also tied for the team lead with 14 homers.
Our predicted final score for this Orioles vs. Rays matchup is 6-5 in favor of the Rays, and with the money line sitting at -109, we see this as a great value pick for today’s game.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Albert Suarez finishing with more strikeouts than Jeffrey Springs, and we also have Springs going for fewer innings than Suarez. However, we do like Springs to finish with a better ERA, and overall, we have him as the better fantasy option.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips
- Take the Orioles on the moneyline
- The Rays are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Tampa Bay Rays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wander Franco | Out | Personal |
| Shane McClanahan | Out | Elbow |
| Richie Palacios | Out | Knee |
| Jacob Waguespack | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Pepiot | Out | Knee |
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Jorge Mateo | Out | Elbow |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Out | Lat |
| Jacob Webb | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Heston Kjerstad | Out | Head |
| Jordan Westburg | Out | Hand |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
