Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Preview
From Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, we have an AL East matchup between the Orioles and Rays. The Orioles are the division leaders with a record of 69-48, while the Rays are 4th in the AL East at 58-57.
Baltimore is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. Drew Rasmussen is starting for the Rays, while the Orioles have Corbin Burnes on the mound. First pitch for this one is set for 7:15 PM ET, and FOX is carrying it on TV.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats
- The Orioles are 3-2 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
- On the opposing side, the Rays have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 4-1 record in their last five home contests.
- Over their last ten games, the Orioles have a 6-4 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Rays have gone 5-5 against the runline, with a straight-up record of 5-5 over their last ten games.
Baltimore picked up a 4-1 road win over the Rays in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles offense got off to a fast start, scoring one run in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Rays got on the board with one run in the 5th and couldn’t muster any more offense.
Zach Eflin pitched well for the Orioles in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued one walk. As for the Rays, Zack Littell got the start and went five innings, giving up three earned runs on eight hits.
Cedric Mullins and Colton Cowser each homered for the Orioles, while Eloy Jimenez went 3/4 with an RBI. Ryan O’Hearn also had a two-hit game and drove in two runs. James McCann also had a two-hit game and scored a run.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
The Orioles hold a narrow half-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East, and they are 69-48 overall this season. Baltimore took the first game of this series vs. the Rays, and their overall series record is 21-11-4 this year. Against other teams in the AL East, the Orioles are 25-12 this season.
At home, the Orioles are 34-25 this season, and they have been really good on the road at 35-23. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 57-38, and they are 26-16 as the favorite on the road this year.
When the Orioles are on the road, they have a run line record of 34-24, covering the spread in 58.6% of their games. Their average run margin in road games is +1.0 runs per game. They have been the favorite in 95 games this season and have gone 48-47 against the run line in those games.
The Baltimore Orioles are on the road today against the Tampa Bay Rays, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Orioles games this season is 9.4 runs per game, and their over/under record is 65-42. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 6-6. Overall, 77.8% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Right-hander Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Rays on the road. He has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 12-4 with a 2.63 ERA. Burnes’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.06. In his last outing, he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work, coming away with the win. Before that, he had picked up the win in three straight outings. Burnes has been much better at home this season, coming in with a 2.15 ERA compared to 3.33 on the road.
Over the past seven games, Jackson Holliday has been swinging a hot bat for the Orioles, going 8/25 with three homers and seven RBIs. Eloy Jimenez has also been on a tear, hitting .550 over his last six games. For the season, Jimenez is batting .283.
As a team, the Orioles are the best home run hitting team in the league and are also the top team in terms of slugging percentage. They are also 3rd in the league in runs per game (5.1) and have the best isolated power mark in the league. Overall, they are batting .255, which is 6th in the league.
The Rays are 58-57 overall and trail the Orioles by 10 games in the AL East. So far, they have gone just 16-22 in AL East matchups. Tampa Bay is looking to bounce back after dropping the first game of their series with the Orioles.
At home, the Rays are 30-30 this season and have gone 28-27 on the road. As the favorite, Tampa Bay is 30-27 this year and 28-30 as the underdog. The Rays have dropped two straight at home, and their overall series record is 20-12-4 this year. Currently, they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
When it comes to the run line, the Rays have been a better bet on the road this season, going 34-21 compared to 24-36 at home. They have covered the run line in 36 of their 58 wins, but they have failed to cover in their last two home games. Tampa Bay has been the underdog in 58 games this season, and they have covered the run line in 36 of those contests.
The Tampa Bay Rays are playing at home against the Baltimore Orioles today. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 8.3 runs per game this season. The Rays have played in 74 games with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and their over/under record for the season is 53-57.
Getting the start for the Rays today is Drew Rasmussen. This will be his first start of the season, as he was used out of the bullpen in his first outing of the season. In that appearance, he went 2 innings, striking out 3 and not allowing a run.
For the season, the Rays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the majors. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and batting average. However, they do come into the game with a good team walk rate and have the 8th fewest strikeouts in the league. Tampa Bay’s team on-base percentage of .312 is 13th in the league.
Brandon Lowe has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/30 in his last seven games with two homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .262 with 14 homers. Yandy Diaz is the team’s leading hitter, with a batting average of .272, and he has gone deep 10 times this season.
Our predicted final score for this game is 6-5 in favor of the Rays, and with them being the underdogs at +144, they are our recommended pick for this game. At +144, we see this as a great payout, and we have the Rays’ chances of winning at just over 50%.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Corbin Burnes is projected to have a solid outing, but we have him picking up the win in just the eighth best among starters. He does have a solid projected strikeout total, and if you’re looking at a player prop bet, his over/under for K’s is seven.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips
- Take the Orioles on the moneyline
- The Rays are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Tampa Bay Rays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Lowe | Probable | Knee |
| Wander Franco | Out | Personal |
| Shane McClanahan | Out | Elbow |
| Richie Palacios | Out | Knee |
| Jacob Waguespack | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Pepiot | Out | Knee |
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Jorge Mateo | Out | Elbow |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Out | Lat |
| Jacob Webb | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Heston Kjerstad | Out | Head |
| Jordan Westburg | Out | Hand |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
