St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Betting Tips 8/27/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Preview

BSMW will be televising Tuesday’s Padres vs. Cardinals NL matchup, with the game getting started at 7:45 PM ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO. Dylan Cease is starting for the Padres, and the Cardinals are going with Miles Mikolas. San Diego is favored on the money line, and the over/under line is sitting at 8 runs.

The Padres are 75-58 and they are 3rd in the NL West, while the Cardinals are 3rd in the NL Central with an overall record of 65-66. San Diego has won two straight heading into the game.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats

• 2-3 is the record of Padres in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
• In the Cardinals’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
• Looking back on their last ten games as the favorite, the Padres are 5-5 straight-up and 4-6 vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Cardinals have gone 1-9 against the runline, with a straight-up record of 3-7 over their last ten games.

San Diego picked up a 7-4 road win over the Cardinals in the most recent game of this series. The Padres offense got off to a fast start, scoring two runs in the first and adding three more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Cardinals got on the board with one run in the 4th and added their final three runs in the 5th.

Randy Vásquez started for the Padres and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs. He finished the game with just two strikeouts and allowed two homers. Kyle Gibson got the start for the Cardinals, going just 4 1/3 innings and giving up seven earned runs.

Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill each homered for the Padres, while Masyn Winn went 3/4 with an RBI for St. Louis. Alec Burleson also had a two-hit game at the plate.

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Prediction

San Diego is 75-58 overall this season, and they are 4th in the NL West, four games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Padres are 20-20 in divisional matchups this year. The Padres have won two straight games, and they are 6-4 across their last 10 games.

This season, the Padres have been good on the road, going 38-26 compared to 37-32 at home. As the favorite, San Diego is 47-36 and 28-22 as the underdog. They have been good as the road favorite, putting up a mark of 17-12 this year.

San Diego is 42-22 against the run line on the road this season, and their average run margin in those games is +1.2. They are 35-15 against the run line as an underdog, and their average run margin in those games is +3.7. The Padres are 27-42 against the run line at home, and their average run margin in those games is -.1. They are 34-49 against the run line as a favorite, and their average run margin in those games is -.3. They are 69-64 against the run line overall this season, with an average run margin of +.5.

San Diego is on the road in St. Louis today, where the O/U line is set at 8 runs. The Padres have a combined run average of 9.0 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 72-60. Their games have had an average O/U line of 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 8 runs, their O/U record is 10-10-1. Overall, 58 of their games have had O/U lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 43.6% of their games, while 54 games have had O/U lines set lower than 8 runs, which accounts for 40.6% of their games.

Dylan Cease will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he took the loss and gave up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. In that start vs. the Mets, he gave up one homer. Cease has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 12-10 with a 3.43 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Cease has a WHIP of 1.05 and opponents are batting .196 this season. Cease has one complete game shutout this year and 14 quality starts. His ERA at home is 3.25 compared to 4.55 on the road.

San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top hitting team, with a team batting average of .265. They are also the league’s top home run hitting team, and their team on-base percentage of .326 is 5th best in the league. The Padres have been very good at putting the ball in play this season, as they have the fewest strikeouts in the league.

Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado are both tied for the team lead in home runs, and they are also 1st and 2nd on the team in RBIs. Profar and Machado have been swinging the bat well of late, with both players going 8/29 in their last eight games. Jackson Merrill is also on a four-game hitting streak and is 2nd on the team with 19 homers.

St. Louis will take on the Padres today with an overall record of 65-66, and they are 10.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Overall, they are 19-23 against other NL Central teams. The Cardinals lost the first game of this series vs. the Padres and have an overall series record of 21-18-4 this season.

As the home underdog, the Cardinals have gone 12-7 this season, and they are 34-31 at home overall. On the road, St. Louis is 31-35 this season. So far, they have been the favorite in 66 games, and they are 32-34 in those games.

When betting the run line in St. Louis Cardinals games this season, it’s been a better idea to take them as the underdog, as they are 43-22 in those games. They are 21-45 when favored. Their overall run line record is 64-67, and their average run differential is -0.5 runs per game. They are 32-33 against the run line at home, where their average run differential is -0.2 runs per game.

St. Louis has played 128 games this season, and 78 of them have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or more. That’s a rate of 59.5%, and the Cardinals have gone 8-12-1 in those games. Their average game this season has seen 8.6 runs scored, and their over/under record for the year is 62-66. Today’s over/under line is set at 8 runs.

St. Louis is sending Miles Mikolas to the mound today vs. the Padres, and he comes into the game with a record of 8-10 and ERA of 5.19. So far this year, he has made 26 starts, and opponents are batting .277 off the right-hander. Mikolas’ last outing came vs. the Brewers, where he didn’t factor into the decision, going six innings and not giving up a run. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. Mikolas has a much better record on the road, going 7-5 with a 5.03 ERA compared to 1-5 with a 6.62 ERA at home.

St. Louis comes into the game with a team batting average of .246, which is 10th in the league. However, they are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the MLB. The Cardinals have been even worse on the road, averaging just 3.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are 20th in the league in home runs and are also near the bottom of the league in terms of slugging percentage and OPS.

Masyn Winn has been swinging a hot bat for the Cardinals, going 14/38 in his last nine games with one homer and six runs scored. For the season, he is batting .282. Alec Burleson has been the team’s top power threat, with 21 homers and 72 RBIs, but he is batting just .277. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Gorman are tied for 2nd on the team with 19 homers, but Goldschmidt is batting just .227, and Gorman is hitting only .203.

Our prediction for today’s Padres and Cardinals matchup is to take the Cardinals on the money line at +116. We have the Cardinals winning this one by a score of 6-5. With the payout for a Cardinals win at +116, there is a lot of value in taking them to win straight up.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Miles Mikolas finishing with four strikeouts compared to Dylan Cease with six. Mikolas is also projected to go five innings, while Cease is projected to go six.

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips

• We like the Cardinals on the moneyline (+116)
• The Cardinals are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report

San Diego Padres Injury Report