St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
BSMW will be televising Thursday’s Pirates vs. Cardinals matchup, with the first pitch from Busch Stadium being set for 7:15 PM ET. The Cardinals are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -139, while the Pirates are at +119. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Both Luis L. Ortiz for the Pirates and Erick Fedde for the Cardinals will be looking to have a strong start. However, the Pirates are on a three-game losing streak, and their record of 71-81 has them 5th in the NL Central. St. Louis is 77-75 and has won three straight.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Pirates in their last five road games. They have also gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Cardinals have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Cardinals have won 5-5 straight-up, and have a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- The Pirates have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 3-7 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
St. Louis cruised to a 10-5 win over the Pirates in the most recent game of this series. The Cardinals had a huge 3rd inning, scoring six of their ten runs. As for the Pirates, they scored their only two runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Cardinals were favored at -204 on the money line.
Sonny Gray got the start for the Cardinals, going just 5 2/3 innings while giving up four runs and striking out eight. He did not factor into the decision, as Michael McGreevy got the win out of the bullpen. David Bednar took the loss for the Pirates out of the bullpen.
Nolan Arenado and Ivan Herrera each had three hits and two RBIs for the Cardinals’ offense. Alec Burleson also had a two-hit game and drove in a run. Pittsburgh’s top hitter was Billy Cook, who went 2/4 with a home run.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The Pirates are 71-81 overall, and they are 17 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Currently, they are 5th in the division, trailing the Reds by 2.5 games for 4th place. Pittsburgh has dropped three straight games, and they are losing the series vs. the Cardinals 0-3.
At home, the Pirates are 38-40 this year, and they are 33-41 on the road. As the underdog, Pittsburgh is 37-53 this year, and they have lost four straight games as the underdog overall. The Pirates’ overall series record is 20-21-6 this year.
When the Pirates are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 43-31. Their average run differential in these games is -0.4, which is slightly better than their overall average run differential of -0.5. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 57-33 against the run line, as opposed to 24-38 as the favorite.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road today against the St. Louis Cardinals, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Pirates have an over/under record of 74-76 on the season, and their games have averaged a combined 8.8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Pirates have a record of 16-18. Overall, 49.3% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher.
Pittsburgh is sending Luis L. Ortiz to the mound today vs. the Cardinals, and he comes in with a record of 6-6 and an ERA of 3.45. So far, Ortiz has made 13 starts, 17 of which have come on the road. He has a record of 4-3 on the road with a 3.45 ERA. In his last outing, Ortiz gave up four earned runs in four innings of work, taking the loss vs. the Royals. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came on the road, where he pitched six scoreless innings vs. the Guardians.
So far this season, the Pirates offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Overall, the Pirates are batting just .236, which is 16th in the league. Their team on-base percentage of .302 is also 18th in the MLB.
Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top offensive player this season, as he is batting .280 with 22 homers and 85 RBIs. This is good for the top mark on the team in both categories. However, he has gone just 3/13 in his last five games. Bryan De La Cruz has also struggled as of late, going 2/15 in his last four games. De La Cruz is 2nd on the team with 20 homers.
St. Louis is currently 2nd in the NL Central, and they trail the Brewers by 11 games. Overall, the Cardinals are 77-75 as they get set to host the Pirates today. The Cardinals have won three straight games, and they have gone 5-5 across their last 10 games.
At home, the Cardinals are 42-35 this season compared to a 35-40 mark on the road. St. Louis has won five straight games at home, and they are 27-25 as the home favorite this season. As the underdog, the Cardinals are an even 40-40 this season.
St. Louis is 39-38 against the run line at home this season, and they have covered in four straight games at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are 25-47 against the run line as the favorite this season, but they are 52-28 against the run line as the underdog.
St. Louis has seen a lot of high-scoring games this season, with their games averaging 8.6 runs per game. Their over/under record is 71-77, and when the line is set at 8 runs, they are 11-17-1. Overall, 53.9% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 or higher. Today’s line is set at 8 runs.
Right-hander Erick Fedde gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces off against the Pirates. He has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 8-9 with an ERA of 3.45. Fedde’s WHIP for the season is 1.18, and he has turned in 11 quality starts. In his last outing, Fedde finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Opponents are batting .229 off Fedde this season, and his ERA at home is 2.14 compared to 4.75 on the road.
St. Louis has been one of the league’s worst offenses this season, averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the MLB. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .246, which is 10th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in terms of on-base percentage.
Paul Goldschmidt and Alec Burleson are tied for the team lead with 21 homers, and Goldschmidt is 4th on the team with 60 RBIs, while Burleson is at the top of the Cardinals’ lineup in terms of RBIs. Brendan Donovan has gone 8/27 over his last eight games and has two homers in that stretch. Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn have also gone deep in two of their past eight games.
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Cardinals, and with them having a money line of -139, that is the direction we recommend going. We do see this as a relatively close matchup, but the payout for a Cardinals win is a good one.
Looking at some potential player props, we have Luis L. Ortiz finishing with five strikeouts, compared to Erick Fedde, who we have going with five as well. However, we have Fedde’s chances of picking up a win as better than Ortiz’s.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Cardinals on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Pirates (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | Out | Knee |
| Willson Contreras | Out | Finger |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ben Heller | Out | Shoulder |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Oneil Cruz | Probable | Ankle |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Nicolas | Out | Side |
| Henry Davis | Out | Hand |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Knee |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
