St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Betting Tips 6/28/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Preview

First pitch for Friday night’s Reds vs Cardinals matchup is set for 8:15 PM ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis. The Cardinals are the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -127. The Reds are +108 on the money line, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

Frankie Montas will go for the Reds, and he is facing off against Andre Pallante for the Cardinals. Cincinnati is 38-43 this season, while the Cardinals are 41-39 and are currently 2nd in the NL Central. MLBN is carrying this game on TV.

Check out BetCoco for St. Louis Cardinals – Cincinnati Reds odds

St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats

• 2-3 is the record of Reds in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Cardinals have gone 2-3 (SU) and 1-4 in their previous five home contests.
• As the favorite, the Cardinals are 5-5 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
• Looking at the Reds’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 4-6 straight-up and 7-3 vs. the runline.

Cincinnati cruised to an easy 11-4 win over the Cardinals in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a huge 3rd inning, scoring nine of their eleven runs. As for the Cardinals, they scored their only four runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Reds were at +124 on the money line.

Andrew Abbott only went five innings for the Reds but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued six walks. On the other side, Miles Mikolas was tagged for nine runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work for the Cardinals.

Cincinnati’s offense was led by Spencer Steer and Noelvi Marte, as they were the only two Reds hitters to have more than one hit. Steer, Marte, and Elly De La Cruz each had two RBIs for the Reds’ offense.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Cincinnati is 38-43 overall and trails the Brewers by 10 games in the NL Central. The Reds are 11-12 against other teams in the division. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 20-16, but they are just 18-27 as the underdog this year. Cincinnati has dropped four straight series and have an overall series record of 8-16-2.

At home, the Reds are 20-23 this year and have gone 18-20 on the road. Cincinnati picked up a win in the final game before the All-Star break. So far, they are 4-6 in July and have gone 5-5 in their last ten games.

When betting the run line on the Reds this season, it’s been a good idea to take them on the road. Cincinnati is 25-13 against the run line in away games, and they’ve covered in two straight. They’ve been a good bet as the underdog, going 27-18 against the run line in those games. The Reds have an average run margin of 0.2 this season, and they’ve been outscored by 0.3 runs per game at home. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.7, while it’s -2.9 in losses.

Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs for the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals is right in line with the combined run average for Reds games this season. Cincinnati’s over/under record is 35-43 overall, but when the line has been set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 6-6. In total, 51.9% of Reds games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs.

Through 14 starts, Frankie Montas has a record of 3-5 and an ERA of 4.48 for the Reds. He has made five quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up two earned runs in six innings of work. Montas didn’t give up a homer in that outing, but in the three previous starts, he had given up a homer in each. The right-hander has a BB/9 of 3.66 compared to 7.19 strikeouts per nine innings. Montas’ ERA at home is 5.92, and on the road, it is 7.1.

Elly De La Cruz has been red hot for the Reds of late, going 13/28 in his last six games, including two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .255 with 14 homers, which is 11th in the league. De La Cruz’s 36 RBIs is 3rd on the team. Spencer Steer has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 8/25 in his last six games with two homers and eight RBIs. Steer’s 51 RBIs are 11th in the league.

As a team, the Reds are 16th in scoring at 4.3 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.5 runs per contest. Overall, the Reds are batting just .230, which is 19th in the MLB.

St. Louis is 41-39 overall and trails the Brewers by 6.5 games in the NL Central. The Cardinals are 9-10 against other teams in the division, and they lost the series opener vs. the Reds. At home, the Cardinals are 22-17 this season.

As the favorite, the Cardinals have gone 20-18 this year and 14-12 as the home favorite. St. Louis has been an even 21-21 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Cardinals are 14-11-1 and have won two straight series.

When betting on the Cardinals’ run line, it’s been a mixed bag. They are 41-39 overall, but they’ve been better at home at 23-16. They are 18-23 on the road, and they’ve been an underdog in 42 games, going 26-16 in those contests. Their average run differential is -0.5 runs per game, but they’ve been outscored by 0.8 runs per game on the road.

The St. Louis Cardinals are playing at home today against the Cincinnati Reds. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which is exactly the average combined run average for Cardinals games this season. St. Louis has played 77 games this season, and 17 of them have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs. In those games, the over has hit 15 times, giving the Cardinals a 15-10 over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs. Overall, St. Louis has a 35-42 over/under record this season.

St. Louis is sending Andre Pallante to the mound today vs. the Reds, and he has made one appearance vs. Cincinnati this year. In that outing, he didn’t allow a run and picked up the win. Overall, Pallante is 3-3 with a 5.24 ERA this year. Out of his 14 appearances, he has made one quality start and is averaging 7.16 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Pallante gave up five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. He was able to pitch out of a jam and get the win in that outing.

St. Louis comes into today’s game with the league’s worst offense, averaging just 4 runs per game. Their batting average of .239 is 14th in the MLB, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. The Cardinals’ offense is also just 17th in home runs this season.

Over the team’s last nine games, Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson have been red hot, with Donovan going 15/35 and Burleson going 13/35. Both players have also hit three home runs during this stretch. Burleson is 2nd on the team with 12 homers this season, and Nolan Gorman is the team leader with 16, but he is batting just .191 for the season.

Getting the Cardinals at -127 on the money line is where we see the best value in this matchup. We actually have the Cardinals winning this one at home by a score of 6-5. So, you could also look to take the over, as the line is sitting at 8.5 runs.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Frankie Montas finishing with six strikeouts compared to Andre Pallante with five. However, we have Pallante going longer in this one, finishing with five innings compared to Montas with 4.1.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips

• Take the Cardinals on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds Injury Report