St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
There are scattered clouds in the forecast for Thursday’s Reds vs. Cardinals matchup in St. Louis. The temperature will be in the mid to upper 80s. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 7:45 PM ET. BSMW is carrying the game on TV.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -133 compared to the Reds at +112. The over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and Cincinnati will be looking to end a two-game losing streak. The Reds are 4th in the NL Central, while the Cardinals are in 2nd place.
Check out BetCoco for St. Louis Cardinals – Cincinnati Reds odds
St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats
- The Reds are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- On the other side, the Cardinals have gone 2-3 (SU) and 1-4 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Cardinals have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Reds’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 3-7 straight-up and 6-4 vs. the runline.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
The Reds will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Pirates with a 6-1 loss. This was especially tough, as it was Cincinnati’s third straight loss. The Reds were the -137 favorite at home going into the game but fell behind early, as the Pirates scored a run in the 2nd and added three more in the 4th.
Graham Ashcraft got the start for the Reds and took the loss. He only lasted 5 1/3 innings, giving up six earned runs on nine hits. The Reds also issued three walks and hit a batter. Jonathan India scored the team’s only run, going 2/4 with a double.
Cincinnati is 4th in the NL Central with a record of 37-43, putting them 10.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Reds head into today’s game having lost two straight games, and they dropped two of three in their most recent series vs. the Pirates.
As the road team today, the Reds are 17-20 on the road compared to 20-23 at home. Cincinnati has struggled as the underdog this year, going 17-27, which includes being 10-19 as the road underdog. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 8-16-2, and they have dropped four straight series.
The Reds have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 24-13. They have a positive run differential on the road, averaging 0.5 more runs than their opponents. They have also been a good bet as the underdog, going 26-18 against the run line.
The Cincinnati Reds are on the road today against the St. Louis Cardinals, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. This season, the Reds and their opponents have combined for an average of 8.4 runs per game. Overall, the over/under record for Cincinnati games this season is 34-43, and the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs this season, the over/under record for Reds games is 6-6. So far this season, 52.5% of Cincinnati’s games have had over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs.
Cincinnati is sending Andrew Abbott to the mound today vs. the Cardinals, and he comes in with a record of 6-6 and an ERA of 3.40. So far, he has made 15 starts, and opponents are batting .222 this year. In his 15 appearances, Abbott has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 7.44 strikeouts per nine innings. The last time he pitched, Abbott picked up the win, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight outings. Abbott has been much better at home, with an ERA of 3.32 compared to 3.65 on the road.
Elly De La Cruz has been the Reds’ best hitter this season, as he is batting .249 overall and has gone 13/37 (.351) over his last nine games, including two homers. De La Cruz’s 14 homers is tied for the team lead with Jeimer Candelario, who is also batting .245 for the season. However, Candelario has struggled of late, going just 6/31 in his last eight games.
As a team, the Reds are 17th in scoring at 4.2 runs per game and are also 15th in home runs. Overall, they are batting just .228, which is 20th in the league. Cincinnati comes into the game with a team batting average of .228 and an on-base percentage of .305, which is 18th in the MLB.
The Cardinals’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Braves, closing out their series with a 4-1 win. After allowing one run to the Braves in the top of the first, the Cardinals responded with two runs of their own. St. Louis went on to add another two runs in the 3rd inning.
Matthew Liberatore put together a good start for the Cardinals, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out eight Braves batters. Alec Burleson was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with two doubles, two RBIs, and a run scored. The Cardinals also had three other players with a single hit.
St. Louis is six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central as they are 41-38 overall. The Cardinals will be at home today, hosting the Reds, who are 6.5 games behind the Brewers in the division. So far, the Cardinals are just 9-9 in divisional games.
At home, the Cardinals are 22-16 this year and have gone 19-22 on the road. St. Louis has won two straight games as the favorite, and they are 20-17 overall as the favorite. As for their record as the underdog, the Cardinals are an even 21-21 this year. They have an overall series record of 14-11-1 and have won two straight series.
When the Cardinals win, they win big, with an average run margin of 2.4 runs. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.4 runs. Their run line record is 41-38, with a 23-15 mark at home and an 18-23 record on the road. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 26-16 against the run line as an underdog.
St. Louis has played to an average of 8.4 runs per game this season. The O/U line for today’s game against Cincinnati is set at 8.5 runs. The Cardinals have a 34-42 O/U record on the year. When the O/U line has been set at 8.5 runs, they have gone 15-10. In 54 games, only 21.5% of their games have had an O/U line set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Right-hander Miles Mikolas gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces off against the Reds. Mikolas has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 6-6 with an ERA of 4.68. Looking at his overall numbers, Mikolas has a WHIP of 1.16 and has turned in nine quality starts. In his last outing, he gave up four earned runs in six innings of work, coming out with the win. Before that, he had not allowed a homer in three straight outings. Mikolas has been much better on the road, coming in with an ERA of 5.45 at home compared to 4.90 on the road.
For the season, the Cardinals are averaging just 4 runs per game, which is 25th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, putting up 4.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .240, which is 13th in the MLB, and have the 16th home run total in the league.
St. Louis has a few hitters who have put up some solid power numbers this season, but they are still looking for more consistent production from some of their top power threats. Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan have been swinging the bat well of late, with Burleson going 11/21 in his last six games and Donovan going 11/22 in that stretch. Both players also have two homers in this stretch. Nolan Gorman is the team’s home run leader but is batting just .191 this season.
Our pick for today’s Reds vs. Cardinals game is to take the Reds on the money line at +112. We have the Reds winning this one by a final score of 5-4. If you’re looking for a parlay, we also like the Reds to take the win straight up.
Looking at some of today’s starters, we have Miles Mikolas finishing with five strikeouts compared to Andrew Abbott with seven. However, our projections have Mikolas finishing with a higher ERA than Abbott.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- We like the Reds on the moneyline (+112)
- The Reds are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Tommy Edman | Out | Wrist |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Iván Herrera | Out | Back |
| Riley O’Brien | Out | Forearm |
| Lars Nootbaar | Out | Oblique |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Lat |
| Jeimer Candelario | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Jake Fraley | Questionable | Leg |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| TJ Friedl | Out | Hamstring |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
