St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Preview
The forecast from St. Louis on Sunday calls for overcast skies and temperatures in the low 80s. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 7:10 PM ET. ESPN is carrying TV coverage for this NL Central matchup.
The Cardinals are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -136 compared to the Cubs at +116. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and St. Louis is looking to extend a four-game win streak, while the Cubs have won two straight. Javier Assad is starting for the Cubs, and he is facing off against Sonny Gray.
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St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats
- The Cubs are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 1-4 runline record.
- In the Cardinals’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Cardinals have a record of 4-6 straight-up, and have gone 3-7 against the runline.
- Looking at the Cubs’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 3-7 straight-up and 3-7 vs. the runline.
St. Louis picked up a 7-6 win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Cardinals had a late rally, scoring four runs in the 8th and another two in the 9th. As for the Cubs, they scored three runs in the 4th and added two more in the 9th.
Miles Mikolas got the win for the Cardinals, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued two walks. JoJo Romero got the save. As for the Cubs, Mark Leiter Jr. took the loss out of the bullpen.
Lars Nootbaar was the Cardinals’ top hitter, going 3/5 with an RBI. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, and Masyn Winn each had two hits and drove in a run. Alec Burleson also had a two-hit game at the plate.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Chicago is 27-25 overall this season, and they are 3.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cubs have dropped three straight games, and they lost the series opener vs. the Cardinals. So far, they are just 5-6 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Cubs have gone 15-11 this year, and they are just under .500 at 12-14 on the road. Chicago has dropped three straight games, with their last win coming in the series finale vs. the Padres.
Chicago has been a strong bet on the run line this season, going 27-25 overall. They are 16-10 on the run line on the road and have covered in two straight games. The Cubs have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 21-10 compared to 6-15 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.1, while it’s -3.5 in losses.
Chicago Cubs games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 22-28. When the O/U line is set at 7.5, the Cubs are 6-7 in those games. Overall, 61.5% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 7.5, with an average line of 8 runs per game.
Javier Assad is looking to stay unbeaten this season as he comes into the game with a record of 4-0 and ERA of 1.70 for the Cubs. So far, he has made 10 starts and three of them have been quality starts. Per nine innings, Assad is averaging 7.81 strikeouts and 3.4 walks. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. The right-hander has been especially tough at home, with an ERA of 1.47 compared to 2.13 on the road.
For the season, the Cubs are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They have been a little better on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per game. As a team, the Cubs are batting just .228, which is 20th in the league. Their team on-base percentage of .310 is 14th in the league.
Christopher Morel has been the Cubs’ top power threat this season, as he is 8th in the league with nine homers. However, he is batting just .206 for the season and has gone 4/21 in his last seven games. Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch also have seven homers apiece, with Bellinger batting .247 and Busch at .236. Busch is looking to turn things around, as he has gone just 1/15 in his last seven games.
St. Louis is hosting the Cubs today with a record of 24-26, which has them 3rd in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by 5.5 games for the division lead. The Cardinals have gone just 2-6 in division games this year.
The Cardinals come in on a four-game winning streak, and they have gone 8-2 across their last ten games. So far, they are 12-12 at home compared to 12-14 on the road. St. Louis has won three straight games as the favorite and are 13-13 overall in games where they were favored. As for their record as the underdog, the Cardinals are 11-13 this year. So far, they have won three straight series and have an overall series record of 8-8.
When it comes to betting the run line on the Cardinals, it’s been a coin flip this season, as they are 25-25 against the run line. They have been a better bet at home, going 13-11, while they are 12-14 on the road. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 15-9 against the run line, compared to 10-16 as the favorite. Their average run differential is -0.8 runs per game.
The St. Louis Cardinals have a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 24-24. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, but when the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 3-9. In 72% of their games this season, the over/under line has been set higher than 7.5 runs.
Sonny Gray gets the start for the Cardinals today vs. the Cubs and comes into the game with a record of 6-2 and an ERA of 2.87. So far this season, he has made eight starts, and opponents are batting .213 off Gray this year. In his four home starts, Gray has a 1.11 ERA compared to 4.95 on the road. Gray has turned in four quality starts and is averaging 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. His last outing came vs. the Orioles, where he gave up one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of work.
St. Louis comes into today’s game with the 25th ranked scoring offense in the MLB, averaging just 3.9 runs per game. They have been a little better at home, putting up 4.1 runs per game. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .235, which is 14th in the league, and they are also 14th in home runs.
Brendan Donovan has been the Cardinals’ top power threat so far, as his four homers are 13th in the league and the 25 RBIs are the best mark on the team. Nolan Gorman is also a player to watch, as he is 9th in the league with eight homers. Gorman has gone 4/10 in his last four games, including one home run.
Our predicted score for this one is a 6-4 win for the Cubs, which means there is some good value in taking them on the money line, as they are currently sitting at +116. If you are looking to take the over/under, we would lean towards the over, as we have this one going over with a total of 10 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Sonny Gray finishing with six strikeouts compared to Javier Assad with five. However, we do have Assad going five innings, while Gray is projected to go six.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- We like the Cubs on the moneyline (+116)
- The Cubs are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Willson Contreras | Out | Forearm |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Giovanny Gallegos | Out | Shoulder |
| Tommy Edman | Out | Wrist |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Riley O’Brien | Out | Forearm |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
