St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Preview
From Busch Stadium in St. Louis, we have the Cubs and Cardinals facing off in an NL Central matchup. The Cubs are 2nd in the NL Central with a record of 27-24, while the Cardinals are 3rd in the division at 23-26. Miles Mikolas is starting for the Cardinals, and the Cubs are starting Jameson Taillon.
Chicago is currently favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -104 compared to the Cardinals at -116. First pitch for this one is set for 7:15 PM ET, and FOX will be carrying this game on TV.
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St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Cubs in their last five road games. They have also gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Cardinals have gone 3-2 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
- In their previous ten games, Cubs have won 5-5 as favorites and 3-7 as underdogs.
- 4-6 is the record of the Cardinals as the favorite, while their record as the underdog stands at 6-4.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Chicago closed out their series vs. the Braves with a 3-0 loss. Heading into the game, the Cubs were the slight favorite at -119 on the money line. Things really got away from the Cubs in the 8th inning, as the Braves scored two runs in the inning to break things open. Chicago’s offense only had four fewer hits than the Braves but didn’t score a run.
Ben Brown got the start for the Cubs and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up six hits. However, he didn’t give up a run. The Cubs also wasted a good performance from Seiya Suzuki, who went 2/4 with two doubles.
Chicago is 27-24 overall this season, and they are 2.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cubs have dropped two straight games, and they went 5-5 in the NL Central. At home, the Cubs are 15-11 this year, and they are just under .500 at 12-13 on the road.
The Cubs have dropped two straight games, and they are just 3-7 across their last 10 games. So far, they have gone 12-9 as the favorite and an even 15-15 as the underdog. Chicago’s overall series record is 7-7-2, and they have dropped three straight series at home.
Chicago has been a tough team to predict on the run line this season, as they are 26-25 overall. They have been a better bet on the road, going 15-10, compared to 11-15 at home. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 20-10, compared to just 6-15 as the favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +3.1, while it is -3.6 in losses.
The Cubs are on the road today against the Cardinals, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Cubs have an over/under record of 21-28 this season, and their games have averaged a combined 8.6 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 6-4. Overall, 25.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Right-hander Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Cardinals on the road. He has made six starts this season and has a record of 3-2 with an ERA of 2.20. Taillon’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had put together two straight quality starts. Taillon’s ERA on the road is 2.86, and he has a record of 0-1 away from home.
Heading into today’s game, the Cubs are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. This is also their home and road splits for the season. As a team, they are batting just .225, which is 19th in the league. Chicago’s offense has been led by Christopher Morel, who is 9th in the league with 33 RBIs and also leads the team with nine homers. However, he is batting just .205 for the season.
Michael Busch and Cody Bellinger are tied for 2nd on the team with seven homers apiece, with Busch having driven in 20 runs and Bellinger 22. Nico Hoerner is 2nd on the team with a batting average of .257 and has an OBP of .349. Over his last seven games, Ian Happ is hitting just .208, and Miguel Amaya is at .143 over the same stretch.
The Cardinals’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Orioles, closing out their series with a 5-4 win. After allowing three runs to the Orioles in the top of the first, the Cardinals responded with a run of their own. St. Louis went on to add another run in the 5th inning and closed things out with a 3-run 6th. Heading into the game, the Cardinals were the slight underdog at +109.
Kyle Gibson put together a good start for the Cardinals, going four innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just three hits and struck out three. However, the Cardinals had to use five relievers to close things out, and John King took the loss out of the bullpen. The Cardinals also wasted a big game from Masyn Winn, who homered in the 6th, going 2/4.
St. Louis is hosting the Cubs today with an overall record of 23-26, and they currently trail the Brewers by 5.5 games in the NL Central. So far, they have really struggled against other NL Central teams, going 1-6 this year. The Cardinals have won three straight games, and this comes after sweeping the Orioles in a three-game series.
At home, the Cardinals are 11-12 this year and 12-14 on the road. St. Louis has won two straight games as the underdog, and they are 11-13 as the underdog overall. The team has an even series record of 8-8 this year, and they have won three straight series.
The Cardinals are 25-24 against the run line this season, including a 13-10 mark at home. They have covered the run line in three straight home games and are 15-9 against the run line as an underdog. St. Louis has an average run margin of -0.9 runs per game this season.
The St. Louis Cardinals are at home tonight against the Chicago Cubs, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Cardinals’ games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 23-24. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 13-6. So far this season, 16.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
St. Louis is sending Miles Mikolas to the mound today vs. the Cubs, and he is looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in five innings of work. In that outing vs. the Red Sox, he gave up just two hits and issued one walk. Mikolas finished with a no-decision in that outing. Looking back at his last three outings, he has finished with a no-decision in two of them. Mikolas has a record of 3-5 and an ERA of 5.77 this season. Opponents are batting .294 off Mikolas this season. Per nine innings, he has 6.62 strikeouts and just 1.87 walks.
St. Louis has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season, averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 26th in the MLB. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 4 runs per contest. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .231, which is 16th in the league. One of the few bright spots for the Cardinals has been their ability to draw walks, as they are 8th in the league in walks.
Over his last six games, Nolan Gorman has three home runs and is batting .278. For the season, he is hitting just .207, but his eight homers are the best mark on the team and 10th in the league. Brendan Donovan comes into the game with a team-high 23 RBIs and has four homers, which is 4th in the league.
Our predicted final score for this Cubs and Cardinals matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Cubs. With the Cubs being the underdog on the money line, we see this as a great opportunity to pick them up at -104.
If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also look to the over/under line, which is sitting at 8.5 runs. Our models have this game going over, but we see the Cubs’ money line as a better value.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- We like the Cubs on the moneyline (-104)
- The Cubs are also our pick on the spread at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Willson Contreras | Out | Forearm |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Giovanny Gallegos | Out | Shoulder |
| Tommy Edman | Out | Wrist |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Riley O’Brien | Out | Forearm |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
