Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Astros and Mariners is set to get started at 4:10 PM ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA. The Astros are 3rd in the AL West with a record of 24-32, while the Mariners have won four straight and are 1st in the AL West at 31-26.
Logan Gilbert will start for the Mariners, while the Astros are sending Spencer Arrighetti to the mound. Seattle is favored on the money line (-142), and the over/under line is currently 7.5 runs. Houston is the slight underdog (+120).
Check out BetCoco for Seattle Mariners – Houston Astros odds
Seattle Mariners Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Astros have recorded a 1-4 record, with a 1-4 performance on the runline.
- In the Mariners’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 1-4 (SU) with 1-4 against the spread.
- The Mariners have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Astros have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
Seattle picked up a 2-1 win over the Astros in the most recent game of this series. The Mariners had a chance to win in regulation but scored the game-winning run in the 10th. Heading into the game, they were at -108 on the money line.
George Kirby started for the Mariners and went six innings while giving up just one run and striking out eight. He picked up a win in the game, while Mike Baumann got the save. Justin Verlander had a good outing for the Astros, going seven innings and giving up one earned run.
Dominic Canzone was the difference for the Mariners, as he homered in the first and scored the game-winning run in the 10th. Yordan Alvarez had a two-hit game for the Astros.
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction
The Astros are 24-32 overall and trail the Mariners by 6.5 games in the AL West. Currently, they are 3rd in the division, with an overall division record of 12-11. The Astros have dropped three straight games, with all of these coming at home vs. the Mariners.
So far, the Astros have gone 14-15 at home compared to 10-17 on the road. As the favorite, the Astros are 19-25 and 5-7 as the underdog. Houston has won two straight series on the road, and their overall series record is 8-8-1 this year. Looking at their overall recent performance, the Astros are just 4-6 over their last 10 games.
When the Astros are on the road, they have a run line record of 10-17, and they have failed to cover the run line in their last three road games. Their average run differential on the road is -1.2 runs per game, and they have an overall run line record of 22-34. As the favorite, they are 16-28 against the run line.
When the Houston Astros are on the road, the over/under line is typically set at 9 runs per game. However, today’s line is set at 7.5 runs. The over/under record for the Astros is 21-32, and their games have averaged a combined 9 runs per game. Their games have had an over/under line of 7.5 runs just 8 times this season, with a record of 3-5 in those games. The under has hit in their last 5 games.
Houston is sending right-hander Spencer Arrighetti to the mound today as he faces the Mariners on the road. Arrighetti has made eight starts this year and has a record of 2-5 with an ERA of 6.93. In his 37 2/3 innings of work, he has a WHIP of 1.78 and is coming off a rough outing against the Athletics, where he took the loss. In that game, he gave up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Opponents are batting .294 off Arrighetti this season.
So far this season, the Astros are the top-hitting team in the league, batting a combined .259. They are also the league’s top home run hitting team and have the best team slugging percentage in the league. As a team, they are averaging 4.4 runs per game and have been even better at home, putting up 4.9 runs per contest.
Over his last seven games, Kyle Tucker is just 2/25 at the plate, but he still leads the team with 18 homers. Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve are also tied for 2nd on the team with nine homers apiece. Alvarez has gone 9/27 in his last seven games, while Altuve is 8/30 in that stretch. Altuve is also on a four-game hitting streak.
Seattle has won four straight games, and they are 31-26 overall this season. The Mariners hold a 3.5-game lead in the AL West over the Rangers, and they have gone 9-3 against other teams in the division. Seattle has taken the first three games of this series vs. the Astros.
At home, the Mariners are 18-10 this season and 13-16 on the road. As the favorite, Seattle is 17-13 this year and 14-13 as the underdog. The Mariners have won four straight at home, and their overall series record is 8-7-2.
Seattle has been a strong run line bet at home this season, going 16-12, and has covered in four straight games at T-Mobile Park. Overall, the Mariners are 29-28 against the run line, with an average scoring margin of -0.1 runs per game. They’ve been a better run line bet as the underdog, going 15-12 against the run line in those games.
Seattle has had a lot of games with high over/under lines this season, with 47.4% of their games having lines over 7.5 runs. However, their games have averaged exactly 7.5 runs per game, and their over/under record is just 21-33 on the season. Their last three games have all gone under the total, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is just 6-11.
Through 11 starts, Logan Gilbert has a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.06. Gilbert’s WHIP for the season is currently .96. In his 11 appearances, he has turned in nine quality starts. Gilbert most recently faced the Nationals, where he finished with a no-decision. In that outing, he went six innings and gave up one earned run on three hits. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Gilbert has been much better at home, coming in with an ERA of 2.38 compared to 4.5 on the road.
Cal Raleigh has been the Mariners’ top power threat this season, as his 11 home runs are 8th in the league and lead the team. However, he is batting just .209. Ty France and Mitch Haniger are tied for 2nd on the team with six homers apiece. Haniger is batting just .217, while France comes in with a batting average of .243. Haniger is 2nd on the team with 24 RBIs, and France and Julio Rodriguez are tied for 3rd with 21 RBIs.
Julio Rodriguez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/33 (.273) over his last eight games, with two homers and seven RBIs. He is also on a five-game hitting streak. Overall, Rodriguez is batting .269, which is 4th on the team.
Our predicted score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Astros, and with the Astros’ money line sitting at +120, we see this as a great value pick. We actually have the Astros’ offense finishing with the fourth-most runs in the league today, and you could also look to the over/under line, which is at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Logan Gilbert is projected to finish with just four strikeouts, which is the fourth-lowest among all starters. As for Spencer Arrighetti, we have him finishing with four strikeouts, which is the lowest among all starters.
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Tips
- We like the Astros on the moneyline (+120)
- The Astros are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Seattle Mariners Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco | Out | Hamstring |
| Sam Haggerty | Out | Achilles |
| Gregory Santos | Out | Lat |
| Jackson Kowar | Out | Elbow |
| Matt Brash | Out | Elbow |
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Forearm |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Forearm |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
