San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Brewers and Giants is set to get started at 9:45 PM ET from Oracle Park in San Francisco. The Giants are 72-74 and are sending Hayden Birdsong to the mound vs. a Brewers team that is 83-62 and starting Frankie Montas. Milwaukee is currently 1st in the NL Central, while the Giants are 4th in the NL West.
The money line odds have the Brewers as the favorite, with their line sitting at -130 compared to the Giants at +109. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and NBCS will be televising this NL matchup.
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San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Brewers have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 1-4 performance on the runline.
- Conversely, the Giants have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games, the Brewers have a 6-4 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Giants have gone 4-6 against the runline, with a straight-up record of 7-3 over their last ten games.
San Francisco cruised to a 13-2 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Giants had a huge 2nd inning, scoring four of their thirteen runs. As for the Brewers, they scored their only two runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Giants were favored at -136 on the money line.
Blake Snell only went five innings for the Giants but gave up just one run and struck out eight. He picked up a win in the game, while Colin Rea had a rough outing for the Brewers, taking the loss. Rea went just four innings and gave up ten earned runs.
Mike Yastrzemski and Jerar Encarnacion each homered for the Giants, while Matt Chapman scored three times and drove in three runs while going 1/3. Tyler Fitzgerald also had a three-hit game and scored three times.
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is 83-62 overall this season, and they lead the NL Central by 8.5 games over the Cubs. The Brewers will be on the road today to take on the Giants, and they are 30-19 against other teams in the NL Central. So far, they have gone 42-29 at home and 41-33 on the road.
The Brewers have dropped six of their last ten games and are 4-6 so far in September. As the favorite, the Brewers are 49-36 this year and 34-26 when they have been the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 25-17-4, and they have dropped two straight series.
When betting the run line on the Brewers, it’s been more profitable to take them as the underdog, as they are 40-20 on the run line in those games. Their overall run line record is 73-72, with an average run margin of +0.9 runs per game. They have been slightly better on the run line on the road, going 39-35, compared to 34-37 at home. In their wins, they have an average run margin of +3.6 runs per game, while in their losses, they are getting outscored by an average of -2.8 runs per game.
When the Milwaukee Brewers are on the road, they are involved in high-scoring games, as their combined run average is 8.7 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 75-61, and when the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 22-12. Overall, 72.4% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, with an average line of 8 runs per game.
The Brewers are sending Frankie Montas to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 6-10 and an ERA of 4.69. Montas has made 26 starts this season, and his WHIP is currently 1.37. Looking back at his last outing, Montas took the loss vs. the Rockies, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. Montas’ ERA on the road is 6.24, compared to 5.30 at home. He has a record of 5-4 on the road.
William Contreras comes into the game with a four-game hitting streak and is batting .281 for the season. His 21 homers is 3rd on the team, and he is 2nd on the Brewers with 84 RBIs. Willy Adames has been one of the Brewers’ top power threats this season, as his 30 homers is 11th in the league and leads the team. Adames has also gone deep four times in his last 10 games, batting .231 over that stretch.
As a team, the Brewers are 6th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.0 runs per contest. Overall, the Brewers are batting .249, which is 9th in the league, and are one of the best teams in terms of drawing walks.
With a record of 72-74, the Giants are 15 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Overall, they are 24-22 against other teams in the NL West. The Giants will be at home today, and they are 41-33 at home this year.
San Francisco lost the first game of this series vs. the Brewers but came back to win game two. The Giants have an overall series record of 22-20-4 this season, and they have dropped two straight series at home. As the favorite, the Giants are 45-32 this year, and they are 27-42 as the underdog. Looking at their overall mark, the Giants have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games.
When the Giants win, they win big. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.2 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.2 runs per game. They have a run line record of 73-73, and their average run margin is -0.1 runs per game. They are 40-32 against the run line on the road, and their run line record as an underdog is 41-28.
The San Francisco Giants are playing at home against the Milwaukee Brewers today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average in Giants games this season is 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 74-66. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 29-24. Overall, 50.7% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 7.5 runs or higher.
San Francisco is sending right-hander Hayden Birdsong to the mound today vs. the Brewers. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 3-5 with a 5.19 ERA. Birdsong’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.50. In his last outing, he took the loss, going three innings and giving up two earned runs on four hits. Birdsong has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings. One of these outings was vs. the Brewers, where he gave up one homer and five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. Per nine innings, Birdsong is averaging 6.06 walks compared to 11.08 strikeouts.
Heading into today’s game, the Giants are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. This is the same number of runs they are averaging at home and on the road. As a team, the Giants are batting .240, and their team on-base percentage of .309 is also below the league average. San Francisco’s offense is led by Matt Chapman, who is batting .251 for the season and has a team-high 73 RBIs to go along with 24 homers.
Over his last nine games, Mike Yastrzemski has four home runs and is batting .250. Tyler Fitzgerald has gone 12/35 in his last nine games and has scored eight runs. Both Matt Chapman and Jerar Encarnacion come into the game on six-game hitting streaks.
Based on the money line, we really like the Giants at home, and at +109, there is some good value there. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Giants.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Hayden Birdsong finishing with seven strikeouts, which is good for fifth among all starters. As for Frankie Montas, he is projected to finish with six K’s, which is seventh. However, Montas is predicted to have a better ERA than Birdsong, as he is our second-best starter in terms of earned runs.
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- We like the Giants on the moneyline (+109)
- On the run line we like Giants (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
San Francisco Giants Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | Out | Hamstring |
| Wilmer Flores | Out | Knee |
| Tom Murphy | Out | Knee |
| Jordan Hicks | Out | Shoulder |
| Kyle Harrison | Out | Shoulder |
| Randy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
| Keaton Winn | Out | Elbow |
| Jung Hoo Lee | Out | Shoulder |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Bryse Wilson | Out | Oblique |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Nick Mears | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
