San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Preview
At 9:40 PM ET, the Nationals and Padres face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are the heavy favorite on the money line (-221). The Nationals have a record of 38-39 and are 3rd in the NL East, while the Padres are 2nd in the NL West with an overall record of 41-41.
The over/under line for Monday’s game is at 8.5 runs, and MASN will be televising the game. Patrick Corbin is starting for the Nationals, while the Padres are going with Matt Waldron.
Check out BetCoco for San Diego Padres – Washington Nationals odds
San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Nationals have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
- Conversely, the Padres have achieved a 1-4 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- As the favorite, the Padres are 6-4 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Nationals have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Prediction
The Nationals wrapped up their series vs. the Rockies with a 2-1 win on the road. Washington was the slight favorite at -134 on the money line going into the game. Things got tense at the end, as the Rockies pulled to within one run in the 8th, but Kyle Finnegan was able to close things out and earned the save.
Jake Irvin put together a good start for the Nationals, going six innings and giving up just one earned run, and striking out 10. Washington’s offense scored their only two runs in the 2nd inning. Jacob Young was hot at the top of the lineup, going 2/3 with a run scored.
Washington is 38-39 overall and trails the Phillies by 13 games for the NL East lead. So far, they have gone 14-10 in divisional games. The Nationals will be on the road today, where they are 21-20 compared to 17-19 at home.
As the road underdog, the Nationals have gone 17-18 this year, and they are 30-33 as the underdog overall. Washington has been good in close series, putting together an 11-13-1 series record. They have won two straight series on the road.
Washington has been a strong run line bet overall this season, going 46-31. They have been especially good on the road, going 26-15. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 39-24, compared to 7-7 as the favorite. The Nationals have been outscored by 0.1 runs per game on average this season, and their average run differential in wins is +3.3 runs per game.
Washington is on the road against the Padres, and the O/U line is set at 8.5. The combined run average for Nationals games this season is 8.3, and their O/U record is 34-40. The average O/U line for their games is 9, and when the line is set at 8.5, their O/U record is 11-14. So far this season, 31.2% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 8.5, while 36.4% have had lower lines.
Left-hander Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Padres on the road. He has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 1-7 with an ERA of 5.60. Corbin’s WHIP for the season is 1.60, and opponents are batting .294 off him this year. Corbin’s last outing came on June 19th, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in five innings of work. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last two outings. Corbin has made three quality starts this year.
Washington’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 21st in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a team on-base percentage of just .304. CJ Abrams has been one of the bright spots in the lineup, as he is batting .270 for the season and leads the team with 39 RBIs.
Jesse Winker and Lane Thomas are both tied for 2nd on the team with eight homers apiece. Winker is batting .264 for the season, but he has gone just 3/13 in his last five games. Thomas has gone 4/18 in his last five games, but he does have two home runs in that stretch. Thomas also has the Nationals’ longest active hitting streak at four games.
Led by a big game by Luis Arraez at the plate, the Padres are coming off a 6-2 win over the Brewers to close out their series. Arraez went 2/4 with a run scored and drove in one run. The Padres really broke things open with a five-run 2nd inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Padres were the slight favorite at -139.
Michael King started for the Padres, going six innings and giving up five earned runs on nine hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and took the loss.
San Diego will open their series vs. the Nationals with an even 41-41 record, and they are 8.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. This season, they have gone 14-15 in divisional games. The Padres are 20-19 on the road compared to 21-22 at home.
The Padres took the series vs. the Brewers, winning three of the four games. As for their overall record, the Padres are 4-6 across their last 10 games. So far, they have been the favorite in 50 of their games, going 26-24 in those matchups. As for their games as the underdog, they are 15-17. San Diego has an overall series record of 14-10-3 this year.
When the Padres win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of 3.7 runs per game. However, when they lose, they tend to lose big, with an average run margin of -3.3 runs per game. This season, they are 42-40 against the run line, including a 27-12 mark on the road. They are 20-30 against the run line as the favorite and 22-10 against the run line as the underdog.
The Padres have been on a hot streak of overs lately, hitting the over in four straight games. The over/under line for tonight’s game against the Nationals is set at 8.5 runs, which is slightly higher than their season average of 8.0 runs per game. Overall, the over has hit in 42 of their 81 games this season, and their games have averaged a combined 8.8 runs per game.
Through 15 starts, Matt Waldron has a record of 5-6 and an ERA of 3.46 for the Padres. He has made six quality starts this year and is coming off a start in which he only gave up one earned run in seven innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Looking back at his last three outings, Waldron has finished with a no-decision, win, and loss. So far, he has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.86 compared to 2-4 with a 4.92 ERA at home.
San Diego’s offense has been one of the league’s best this season, as they are 2nd in team batting average and are also 7th in home runs. Overall, they are averaging 4.5 runs per game, and they have been even better on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. The Padres have been one of the league’s best at avoiding strikeouts this season, and they also have a good on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 14 home runs are the best mark on the team and 11th in the league. Jake Cronenworth is right behind him with 12 homers, and his 49 RBIs are 12th in the MLB. Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill have been swinging the bat well of late, with Machado going 11/28 and Merrill going 9/25 over their last seven games, respectively.
Our predicted final score for this game is 5-4 in favor of the Padres, which would have them winning straight up. However, with the money line payout for a Padres win sitting at -221, we recommend taking the over, as we have the run total going over 8.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Patrick Corbin finishing with just four strikeouts and Matt Waldron with five. If you’re looking for a player prop bet, you could take the over on Waldron’s strikeout line, as we have him finishing with five.
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips
- Take the Padres on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Nationals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | Out | Shoulder |
| Yu Darvish | Out | Groin |
| Joe Musgrove | Out | Elbow |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Questionable | Tricep |
| Luis Campusano | Out | Thumb |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Glenn Otto | Out | Shoulder |
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Out | Hamstring |
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow/Forearm |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
| Jose A. Ferrer | Out | Teres Major |
